ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
09.09.2026 16:00
Tamme Stadium
Referee: M. Pukk
Tammeka
Match Timeline
Paide
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
22'
Thomas Lisboa
Tammeka
28'
J. Palacios · Assist: D. Luts
Paide
55'
M. P. Sohna · Assist: D. Luts
Paide
🔄
57'
R. Laabus ↔ T. Lang
Tammeka
🔄
57'
J. Palacios ↔ M. Jobarteh
Paide
🔄
58'
M. Miller ↔ R. Smirnov
Paide
🟨
70'
R. Silov
Tammeka
🟨
72'
Paide
Paide
🟥
74'
R. Smirnov
Paide
🟨
78'
M. P. Sohna
Paide
🔄
78'
M. P. Sohna ↔ P. A. Cham
Paide
🔄
78'
H. Anier ↔ D. Darboe
Paide
🔄
78'
D. Luts ↔ S. Luts
Paide
🔄
80'
M. Hydara ↔ P. Marin
Tammeka
🔄
80'
M. Sambe ↔ K. Kiidron
Tammeka
🟨
81'
M. Lilander
Paide
🟥
86'
S. Luts
Paide

Tammeka vs Paide Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 61.9%
Odds 3.03
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.58
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
61.9%
3.03
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.62
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.58
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
72.5%
1.61
HT / FT Home / Home
-
6.50
Correct Score 2-1
-
13.00
Probability Distribution
Tammeka Win 61.9%
Draw 8.4%
Paide Win 29.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Tammeka1.43
Paide1.52
Recent Form (Last 5)
Tammeka Tammeka
WWDLW
46 GF / 44 GA
Paide Paide
WLDWL
62 GF / 53 GA
Key Stats
1.48
Average Goals Scored
1.59
1.42
Average Goals Conceded
1.36
15
BTTS Yes
27
17
Over 2.5
21
0
Shots on Goal
0.6

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Tammeka Tammeka 31 matches
Paide Paide 39 matches
Tammeka Statistic Paide
16 Wins 18
3 Draws 10
12 Losses 11
46 Goals For 62
44 Goals Against 53
1.48 Avg Goals Scored 1.59
1.42 Avg Goals Conceded 1.36
15 BTTS Yes 27
21 Over 1.5 30
17 Over 2.5 21
11 Over 3.5 15
11 Clean Sheets 8
7 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0.6
0 Total Shots 2
0 Corners 1
0% Ball Possession 12.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and Paide's more proactive style and Tammeka's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Paide. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Tammeka come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Paide having the stronger overall control.

Tammeka Analysis

Tammeka come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 5 place with 38 points after 23 matches. With 12 wins, 2 draws, and 9 defeats plus a goal balance of 29:32, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by their main attacking players, and at the back they have appeared fairly stable. At home, their record of 7 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as a more cautious and defensive approach.

Paide Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 42 points from 24 games, Paide bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 12 wins, 6 draws, and 6 defeats, together with goals at 40:31, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 5 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, which underlines a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Tammeka won 2 times, Paide won 11 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:31 from Tammeka's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.86 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.6%)
Predicted formations: Tammeka - / Paide 4-3-3
H2H summary: Tammeka wins 2, draws 1, Paide wins 11

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 21 5 1 74:20 54 68
W W W W W
2 28 17 1 10 56:37 19 52
W D W W L
3 28 14 5 9 49:26 23 47
W L L L L
4
Paide Away
27 13 6 8 43:35 8 45
L W L W W
5 27 14 2 11 36:38 -2 44
W L W L W
6 28 11 1 16 40:47 -7 34
W L L W W
7 27 10 4 13 37:52 -15 34
L W W D L
8 28 9 1 18 46:65 -19 28
L W L L L
9 28 8 4 16 31:49 -18 28
L L W D L
10 28 5 3 20 21:64 -43 18
L D L L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga