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28.09.2026 18:45
Strawberry Arena
Referee: Javier Alberola Rojas, Spain
Sweden
Match Timeline
Poland
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
8'
Benjamin Nygren · Assist: Victor Lindelöf
Sweden
🟨
19'
Daniel Svensson
Sweden
🟨
35'
Tymoteusz Puchacz
Poland
⚽
43'
Sebastian Szymański · Assist: Nicola Zalewski
Poland
🟨
58'
Piotr Zieliński
Poland
⚽
63'
Yasin Ayari · Assist: Sebastian Nanasi
Sweden
🔄
63'
Besfort Zeneli ↔ Sebastian Nanasi
Sweden
🔄
65'
Tymoteusz Puchacz ↔ Przemysław Frankowski
Poland
⚽
72'
Viktor Gyökeres · Assist: Patrik Wålemark
Sweden
🔄
76'
Matty Cash ↔ Michał Skóraś
Poland
🔄
76'
Sebastian Szymański ↔ Karol Świderski
Poland
🔄
76'
Piotr Zieliński ↔ Kacper Urbański
Poland
🔄
80'
Patrik Wålemark ↔ Alexander Bernhardsson
Sweden
🔄
80'
Benjamin Nygren ↔ Hugo Larsson
Sweden
🔄
88'
Przemysław Wiśniewski ↔ Robert Lewandowski
Poland
🔄
89'
Viktor Gyökeres ↔ Jesper Karlström
Sweden
🔄
89'
Yasin Ayari ↔ Williot Swedberg
Sweden
🟨
90+2'
Robert Lewandowski
Poland

Sweden vs Poland Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 44.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
44.1%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
86%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Sweden Win 44.1%
Draw 15.3%
Poland Win 40.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sweden1.56
Poland1.32
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sweden Sweden
WWDLW
12 GF / 16 GA
Poland Poland
WLDWL
2 GF / 4 GA
Key Stats
1.71
Average Goals Scored
0.67
2.29
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
6
BTTS Yes
1
6
Over 2.5
1
5.29
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sweden Sweden 7 matches
Poland Poland 3 matches
Sweden Statistic Poland
2 Wins 0
2 Draws 2
3 Losses 1
12 Goals For 2
16 Goals Against 4
1.71 Avg Goals Scored 0.67
2.29 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
6 BTTS Yes 1
7 Over 1.5 2
6 Over 2.5 1
4 Over 3.5 1
0 Clean Sheets 1
1 Failed To Score 2
5.29 Shots On Goal 4
11.57 Total Shots 8.67
3.29 Corners 2.67
49% Ball Possession 33%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Sweden won 2 times, Poland won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:6 from Sweden's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.7%)
Predicted formations: Sweden 4-4-2 / Poland 3-4-3
H2H summary: Sweden wins 2, draws 0, Poland wins 1

Standings

League B - Group D
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 4 3 1 0 7:3 4 10
W D W W
2 4 2 2 0 6:3 3 8
W D W D
3 4 1 1 2 7:4 3 4
L W L D
4 4 0 0 4 3:13 -10 0
L L L L
Promotion
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