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ENGLAND › CHAMPIONSHIP
10.10.2026 11:30
Swansea.com Stadium
Referee: Andrew Kitchen

Swansea vs Norwich Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 66.5%
Odds 2.40
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.57
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.74
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
66.5%
2.40 ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.57 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.74 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
84.9%
1.23 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.75 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Swansea Win 66.5%
Draw 4.2%
Norwich Win 29.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Swansea1.34
Norwich1.36
Recent Form (Last 5)
Swansea Swansea
WWDLW
18 GF / 13 GA
Norwich Norwich
WLDWL
24 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.38
Average Goals Scored
1.6
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.27
5
BTTS Yes
7
7
Over 2.5
9
4.88
Shots on Goal
5.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Swansea Swansea 13 matches
Norwich Norwich 15 matches
Swansea Statistic Norwich
7 Wins 6
3 Draws 3
3 Losses 6
18 Goals For 24
13 Goals Against 19
1.38 Avg Goals Scored 1.6
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.27
5 BTTS Yes 7
10 Over 1.5 11
7 Over 2.5 9
3 Over 3.5 4
6 Clean Sheets 6
4 Failed To Score 5
4.88 Shots On Goal 5.5
12 Total Shots 15
4.25 Corners 4.75
59.8% Ball Possession 52.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Swansea's more proactive style and Norwich's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Norwich. Swansea arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 17 points compared to Norwich in 17 on 9, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Norwich arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Swansea expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Norwich in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Norwich having the stronger overall control.

Swansea Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 17 points from 8 games, Swansea bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 5 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 13:6, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Z. Vipotnik (2 goals), M. Yeo (2 goals), A. Idah (2 goals), with creative support from Z. Vipotnik (1 assists), S. Eustáquio (1 assists), Eom Ji-Sung (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, their record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Norwich Analysis

Norwich approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 9 points from 8 matches. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 0 draws, and 5 defeats, and the 16:17 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on M. Touré (5 goals), A. Brooks (2 goals), M. Kvistgaarden (2 goals), with creative support from A. Brooks (2 assists), P. Maghoma (2 assists), M. Kvistgaarden (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Swansea won 7 times, Norwich won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:18 from Swansea's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.8%)
Predicted formations: Swansea 4-3-3 / Norwich 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Swansea 3, Norwich 4
H2H summary: Swansea wins 7, draws 2, Norwich wins 6

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 5 2 1 13:6 7 17
W W L D W
2 8 4 3 1 22:11 11 15
D W W W W
3 8 4 3 1 16:12 4 15
D D W W D
4 7 4 2 1 15:10 5 14
W W D L W
5 8 4 2 2 10:8 2 14
L D W W D
6 8 3 4 1 10:7 3 13
D D D L W
7 8 4 1 3 13:12 1 13
W W D W W
8 8 4 1 3 11:12 -1 13
W L L W W
9 8 3 3 2 7:10 -3 12
L D D L D
10 8 2 5 1 12:11 1 11
D W L D D
11 8 3 2 3 15:15 0 11
D D L W L
12 8 3 2 3 7:8 -1 11
L W W D D
13 8 4 2 2 19:10 9 10
L W W D D
14 8 2 4 2 9:12 -3 10
W L D D W
15 8 3 1 4 11:15 -4 10
W W L L L
16 8 2 3 3 12:12 0 9
D W L L D
17 8 3 0 5 16:17 -1 9
L L W W L
18 8 2 3 3 9:11 -2 9
L L W L W
19 7 2 2 3 9:10 -1 8
D D W L L
20 8 2 2 4 7:10 -3 8
L L W L L
21 8 1 4 3 10:12 -2 7
W L D L L
22 8 1 2 5 7:14 -7 5
D L L L W
23 8 1 1 6 8:15 -7 4
D L L W L
24 8 0 4 4 9:17 -8 4
D L D L D
Promotion - Premier League
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation - League One