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23.10.2026 16:30
Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor
Referee: Timo Gansloweit, Germany
SV Darmstadt 98
Match Timeline
FC St. Pauli
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
7'
Arkadiusz Pyrka
FC St. Pauli
🟨
26'
Raoul Petretta
SV Darmstadt 98
🟨
26'
Abdoulie Ceesay
FC St. Pauli
🔄
46'
A. Pyrka ↔ A. Dzwigala
FC St. Pauli
🔄
46'
M. Rasmussen ↔ S. Klein
FC St. Pauli
🔄
46'
A. Ceesay ↔ M. Kaars
FC St. Pauli
🟨
56'
Kai Klefisch
SV Darmstadt 98
🔄
62'
M. Richter ↔ N. Verkooijen
SV Darmstadt 98
🔄
62'
F. Lakenmacher ↔ Lee Ho-Jae
SV Darmstadt 98
🟨
65'
Adam Dźwigała
FC St. Pauli
🔄
67'
Y. Niang ↔ T. Hara
FC St. Pauli
🟨
83'
Eric Smith
FC St. Pauli
🔄
84'
C. Metcalfe ↔ B. Hrgota
FC St. Pauli
🔄
85'
M. Smit ↔ L. Duijvestijn
SV Darmstadt 98
🟨
90+2'
William Mikelbrencis
SV Darmstadt 98
🔄
90+4'
W. Mikelbrencis ↔ C. Lannert
SV Darmstadt 98

SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 44.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
44.8%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
SV Darmstadt 98 Win 39.9%
Draw 15.3%
FC St. Pauli Win 44.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
SV Darmstadt 981.91
FC St. Pauli1.78
Recent Form (Last 5)
SV Darmstadt 98 SV Darmstadt 98
L W W L W
13 GF / 11 GA
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli
D W D D W
6 GF / 3 GA
Key Stats
2.31
Average Goals Scored
1.88
1.63
Average Goals Conceded
1.31
9
BTTS Yes
13
12
Over 2.5
9
3.25
Shots on Goal
5.25

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

SV Darmstadt 98 SV Darmstadt 98 16 matches
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 16 matches
SV Darmstadt 98 Statistic FC St. Pauli
8 Wins 6
2 Draws 8
6 Losses 2
37 Goals For 30
26 Goals Against 21
2.31 Avg Goals Scored 1.88
1.63 Avg Goals Conceded 1.31
9 BTTS Yes 13
12 Over 1.5 14
12 Over 2.5 9
9 Over 3.5 7
2 Clean Sheets 3
6 Failed To Score 1
3.25 Shots On Goal 5.25
11.5 Total Shots 14.13
4.75 Corners 5.63
43% Ball Possession 47.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between FC St. Pauli's more proactive style and SV Darmstadt 98's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring FC St. Pauli. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. SV Darmstadt 98 have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with SV Darmstadt 98 expected to line up in 4-4-2 and FC St. Pauli in 4-1-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FC St. Pauli having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

SV Darmstadt 98 Analysis

SV Darmstadt 98 approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 7 points from 7 matches. The overall return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 4 defeats with a 8:14 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Lee Ho-Jae (2 goals), M. Smit (2 goals), A. Vukotić (2 goals), with creative support from K. Klefisch (2 assists), L. Duijvestijn (2 assists), Lee Ho-Jae (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

FC St. Pauli Analysis

FC St. Pauli sit 7 with 10 points after 7 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses, while the 10:8 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Abdoulie Ceesay (3 goals), T. Hara (2 goals), M. Kaars (2 goals), with creative support from A. Pyrka (2 assists), T. Hara (1 assists), D. Nemeth (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, SV Darmstadt 98 won 9 times, FC St. Pauli won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:13 from SV Darmstadt 98's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.64 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.7%)
Predicted formations: SV Darmstadt 98 4-4-2 / FC St. Pauli 4-1-3-2
H2H summary: SV Darmstadt 98 wins 9, draws 2, FC St. Pauli wins 3

Standings

2. Bundesliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 9 1 0 23:8 15 28
W W D W W
2 11 7 3 1 26:13 13 24
W W L D D
3 11 6 3 2 10:7 3 21
W L W W D
4 10 5 4 1 25:14 11 19
W D W D W
5 10 5 2 3 21:13 8 17
D W L W D
6 11 5 2 4 18:16 2 17
W W L W W
7 10 4 3 3 17:18 -1 15
L D L D D
8 10 2 6 2 12:12 0 12
L D D W D
9 11 3 3 5 13:19 -6 12
L W L W L
10 11 2 5 4 18:20 -2 11
D L D D L
11 11 3 2 6 16:18 -2 11
D L W L W
12 10 3 2 5 8:11 -3 11
W D L L L
13 11 3 2 6 14:18 -4 11
L L W L D
14 11 3 2 6 15:20 -5 11
W L L W D
15 10 3 2 5 10:16 -6 11
W L D L W
16 10 3 2 5 13:21 -8 11
W L W L L
17 11 2 3 6 9:21 -12 9
L D D L W
18 11 1 5 5 11:14 -3 8
L L W D L
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