LATVIA VIRSLIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Jana Skredela stadions
Referee: I. Purins
Super Nova
Match Timeline
Ogre United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
45+1'
A. Kudelkins
Ogre United
🔄
46'
M. Ivulans ↔ M. Kalnins
Ogre United
48'
V. Lizunovs
Ogre United
🔄
59'
A. Grikovs ↔ I. Sylla
Super Nova
🔄
71'
R. Iida ↔ N. Pathe
Super Nova
🔄
71'
E. Evelons ↔ T. Marusiy
Ogre United
🟨
72'
J. Cirulis
Super Nova
80'
A. Kudelkins · Assist: A. Doroshenko
Ogre United
🔄
84'
M. Tihonovics ↔ K. Romanovs
Super Nova
🔄
84'
L. Estevez Fernandez ↔ V. Mashchenko
Ogre United
🔄
90+3'
A. Marchuk ↔ D. Vejkrigers
Ogre United
90'
M. Oss · Assist: Bamba
Super Nova

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 53.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
53.9%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Super Nova Win 53.9%
Draw 26.8%
Ogre United Win 19.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Super Nova1.66
Ogre United1.18
Recent Form (Last 5)
Super Nova Super Nova
WWDLW
28 GF / 41 GA
Ogre United Ogre United
WLDWL
20 GF / 57 GA
Key Stats
1.12
Average Goals Scored
0.87
1.64
Average Goals Conceded
2.48
16
BTTS Yes
14
14
Over 2.5
13
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Super Nova Super Nova 25 matches
Ogre United Ogre United 23 matches
Super Nova Statistic Ogre United
8 Wins 2
4 Draws 4
13 Losses 17
28 Goals For 20
41 Goals Against 57
1.12 Avg Goals Scored 0.87
1.64 Avg Goals Conceded 2.48
16 BTTS Yes 14
20 Over 1.5 20
14 Over 2.5 13
5 Over 3.5 10
4 Clean Sheets 1
6 Failed To Score 8
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Ogre United. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Ogre United having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Super Nova arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 7 with 21 points compared to Ogre United in 10 on 10, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Super Nova Analysis

With 21 points from 20 games and a place of 7, Super Nova still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 3 draws, and 11 defeats, and the 20:32 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Ogre United Analysis

With 10 points from 20 games and a place of 10, Ogre United still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 4 draws, and 14 defeats, and the 19:50 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 9 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Super Nova won 3 times, Ogre United won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:5 from Super Nova's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (80.8%)
Predicted formations: Super Nova 4-2-3-1 / Ogre United -
H2H summary: Super Nova wins 3, draws 1, Ogre United wins 1

Lineups

Super Nova
Formation
Ogre United
D. Veisbuks
D. Veisbuks
M. Tihonovics
M. Tihonovics
M. Oss
M. Oss
J. Cirulis
J. Cirulis
R. Iida
R. Iida
E. Emsis
E. Emsis
R. Sitjakovs
R. Sitjakovs
A. Glaudans
A. Glaudans
Bamba
🎯
Bamba
A. Grikovs
A. Grikovs
V. Lizunovs
V. Lizunovs
N. Parfjonovs
N. Parfjonovs
M. Lormanis
M. Lormanis
K. Gulbis
K. Gulbis
A. Kudelkins
A. Kudelkins
M. Marusii
M. Marusii
K. Cudars
K. Cudars
L. Estevez Fernandez
L. Estevez Fernandez
A. Doroshenko
🎯
A. Doroshenko
E. Evelons
E. Evelons
A. Marchuk
A. Marchuk
M. Ivulans
M. Ivulans
Super Nova 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
90
D. Veisbuks
21
M. Tihonovics
↓ 84'
25
M. Oss
⚽ 90'
5
J. Cirulis
🟨 72'
3
R. Iida
↓ 71'
6
E. Emsis
24
R. Sitjakovs
7
A. Glaudans
9
Bamba
🎯 90'
19
A. Grikovs
↓ 59'
10
V. Lizunovs
⚽ 48'
Substitutes
31
T. Petrovics
18
M. Vasilevskis
16
K. Romanovs
↑ 84'
4
L. Berzins
29
A. Baghdasaryan
27
N. Pathe
↑ 71'
20
I. Ndiaye
26
I. Sylla
↑ 59'
Ogre United 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
N. Parfjonovs
37
M. Lormanis
13
K. Gulbis
55
A. Kudelkins
⚽ 80' 🟨 45+1'
77
M. Marusii
19
K. Cudars
22
L. Estevez Fernandez
↓ 84'
30
A. Doroshenko
🎯 80'
18
E. Evelons
↓ 71'
71
A. Marchuk
↓ 90+3'
21
M. Ivulans
↓ 46'
Substitutes
20
K. Biscuhis
6
D. Vejkrigers
↑ 90+3'
14
R. Aditajs
8
T. Mickevics
5
K. Hayashi
17
V. Mashchenko
↑ 84'
10
M. Kalnins
↑ 46'
11
M. Pacepko
3
T. Marusiy
↑ 71'
Last matches: Super Nova
20.07.26
Vir
Super Nova
Grobiņa
2
0
W
01.07.26
Vir
Super Nova
Tukums
2
1
W
25.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
1
5
L
21.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
Auda
0
2
L
16.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
12.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
29.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
1
2
L
24.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Riga
0
3
L
20.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Grobiņa
2
0
W
16.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Ogre United
3
1
W
11.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Tukums
1
1
D
06.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
0
1
L
01.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Auda
1
2
L
27.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
1
0
W
23.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
18.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
0
2
L
14.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Riga
1
4
L
09.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Grobiņa
1
0
W
03.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Ogre United
2
1
W
22.03.26
Vir
Super Nova
Tukums
2
1
W
Last matches: Ogre United
19.07.26
Vir
Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils
0
4
L
30.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
FK Liepaja
0
4
L
26.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
Tukums
3
2
W
22.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
Rīgas FS
0
6
L
17.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
FS Jelgava
2
0
W
13.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
Riga
1
4
L
30.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Auda
0
2
L
25.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Grobiņa
1
1
D
21.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils
1
3
L
16.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Super Nova
1
3
L
12.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
FK Liepaja
1
4
L
07.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Tukums
1
6
L
02.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Rīgas FS
3
4
L
27.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
FS Jelgava
0
1
L
22.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Riga
0
4
L
17.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Auda
1
1
D
13.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Grobiņa
1
1
D
07.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils
1
2
L
03.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Super Nova
1
2
L
20.03.26
Vir
Ogre United
FK Liepaja
0
1
L
H2H: Super Nova vs Ogre United
06.07.26
H2H
Super Nova
Ogre United
1
2
L
16.05.26
H2H
Super Nova
Ogre United
3
1
W
03.04.26
H2H
Ogre United
Super Nova
1
2
W
10.11.24
H2H
Super Nova
Ogre United
3
0
W
27.07.24
H2H
Ogre United
Super Nova
1
1
D
Last matches: Super Nova
20.07.26
Vir
Super Nova
Grobiņa
2
0
W
25.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
1
5
L
21.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
Auda
0
2
L
29.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
1
2
L
16.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Ogre United
3
1
W
11.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Tukums
1
1
D
01.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Auda
1
2
L
23.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
14.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Riga
1
4
L
15.03.26
Vir
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
H2H at home: Super Nova
06.07.26
H2H
Super Nova
Ogre United
1
2
L
16.05.26
H2H
Super Nova
Ogre United
3
1
W
10.11.24
H2H
Super Nova
Ogre United
3
0
W
Last matches: Ogre United
30.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
FK Liepaja
0
4
L
22.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
Rīgas FS
0
6
L
17.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
FS Jelgava
2
0
W
30.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Auda
0
2
L
21.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils
1
3
L
16.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Super Nova
1
3
L
12.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
FK Liepaja
1
4
L
07.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Tukums
1
6
L
22.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Riga
0
4
L
07.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils
1
2
L
06.03.26
Vir
Ogre United
Rīgas FS
0
2
L
14.02.26
Fri
Ogre United
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1
2
L
07.02.26
Fri
Ogre United
Flora Tallinn
0
1
L
H2H away: Ogre United
06.07.26
H2H
Super Nova
Ogre United
1
2
W
16.05.26
H2H
Super Nova
Ogre United
3
1
L
10.11.24
H2H
Super Nova
Ogre United
3
0
L

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 23 19 2 2 55:16 39 59
W D W W W
2 23 18 4 1 68:20 48 58
W W W D W
3 22 12 4 6 37:26 11 40
D L D W L
4 23 8 6 9 29:29 0 30
W W L D W
5 22 8 4 10 28:34 -6 28
L W L L L
6 23 8 3 12 25:35 -10 27
W L W L L
7 23 6 7 10 24:39 -15 25
L L W W W
8 23 4 8 11 15:35 -20 20
L W L D L
9 23 3 8 12 38:47 -9 17
L L L L L
10 23 3 4 16 21:59 -38 13
L W L W L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - Nakotnes liga