LATVIA VIRSLIGA
16.05.2026 13:00
Slokas Stadions
Referee: J. Keziks
Super Nova
Match Timeline
Ogre United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
11'
A. Glaudans
Super Nova
26'
J. Cirulis
Ogre United
🟨
36'
N. Barkovskis
Super Nova
42'
N. Barkovskis
Super Nova
🔄
46'
N. Pathe ↔ E. Emsis
Super Nova
🔄
46'
N. Barkovskis ↔ A. Grikovs
Super Nova
🔄
46'
R. Aditajs ↔ D. Vejkrigers
Ogre United
🔄
57'
K. Kumakura ↔ T. Marusiy
Ogre United
62'
V. Lizunovs
Super Nova
🔄
67'
H. Silagailis ↔ M. Pacepko
Ogre United
🔄
74'
R. Sitjakovs ↔ K. Skadmanis
Super Nova
🔄
74'
A. Glaudans ↔ I. Sylla
Super Nova
🟨
78'
I. Sylla
Super Nova
🔄
82'
Bamba ↔ M. Vasilevskis
Super Nova
🟨
84'
T. Marusiy
Ogre United
🔄
84'
M. Kalnins ↔ K. Johnson
Ogre United

Super Nova vs Ogre United Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 65.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 26%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 30.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
65.7%
-
BTTS BTTS No
26%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
30.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Super Nova Win 65.7%
Draw 34.3%
Ogre United Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Super Nova1.59
Ogre United1.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Super Nova Super Nova
WWDLW
18 GF / 25 GA
Ogre United Ogre United
WLDWL
11 GF / 32 GA
Key Stats
1.13
Average Goals Scored
0.79
1.56
Average Goals Conceded
2.29
11
BTTS Yes
9
8
Over 2.5
7
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Super Nova Super Nova 16 matches
Ogre United Ogre United 14 matches
Super Nova Statistic Ogre United
5 Wins 0
3 Draws 3
8 Losses 11
18 Goals For 11
25 Goals Against 32
1.13 Avg Goals Scored 0.79
1.56 Avg Goals Conceded 2.29
11 BTTS Yes 9
12 Over 1.5 11
8 Over 2.5 7
3 Over 3.5 4
2 Clean Sheets 0
3 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Ogre United. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Ogre United having the stronger overall control. Super Nova arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 4 with 14 points compared to Ogre United in 10 on 3, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Super Nova Analysis

With 14 points from 12 games and a place of 4, Super Nova still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 2 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 12:17 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on M. Oss (3 goals), A. Glaudans (2 goals), V. Lizunovs (2 goals), with creative support from Facu (5 assists), A. Glaudans (1 assists), V. Lizunovs (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Ogre United Analysis

Ogre United approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 10 with 3 points from 11 matches. Their record of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses, together with goals at 9:25, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through K. Cudars (4 goals), E. Evelons (1 goals), K. Johnson (1 goals), with creative support from M. Kalnins (1 assists), D. Vejkrigers (1 assists), F. Machado (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Super Nova won 3 times, Ogre United won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:5 from Super Nova's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (100%)
Predicted formations: Super Nova 4-2-3-1 / Ogre United -
H2H summary: Super Nova wins 3, draws 1, Ogre United wins 1

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 22 3 2 68:20 48 69
W D W W W
2 27 20 5 2 81:27 54 65
L D W W W
3 27 16 5 6 44:27 17 53
D W W W W
4 28 12 4 12 39:41 -2 40
W L W W L
5 28 10 7 11 33:32 1 37
L D W W L
6 28 8 7 13 32:47 -15 31
W W L L L
7 26 8 5 13 27:38 -11 29
D D L W L
8 28 5 9 14 20:50 -30 24
W L L L D
9 28 4 8 16 41:58 -17 20
L L L W L
10 27 3 5 19 26:71 -45 14
L L L D L