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LATVIA › VIRSLIGA
10.10.2026 13:00
Jana Skredela stadions

Super Nova vs Grobiņa Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 77.2%
Odds 2.40
BTTS
No
Probability 60.3%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 80.5%
Odds 1.75
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
77.2%
2.40 ▥
BTTS No
60.3%
1.83 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
80.5%
1.75 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.00 ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
12.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Super Nova Win 77.2%
Draw 14.7%
Grobiņa Win 8.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Super Nova1.29
Grobiņa1.12
Recent Form (Last 5)
Super Nova Super Nova
WWDLW
35 GF / 48 GA
Grobiņa Grobiņa
WLDWL
35 GF / 64 GA
Key Stats
1.03
Average Goals Scored
0.92
1.41
Average Goals Conceded
1.68
19
BTTS Yes
19
16
Over 2.5
13
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Super Nova Super Nova 34 matches
Grobiņa Grobiņa 38 matches
Super Nova Statistic Grobiņa
11 Wins 7
6 Draws 14
17 Losses 17
35 Goals For 35
48 Goals Against 64
1.03 Avg Goals Scored 0.92
1.41 Avg Goals Conceded 1.68
19 BTTS Yes 19
24 Over 1.5 27
16 Over 2.5 13
5 Over 3.5 11
8 Clean Sheets 7
9 Failed To Score 15
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Grobiņa. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Super Nova expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Grobiņa in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Grobiņa having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Super Nova Analysis

Super Nova sit 6 with 35 points after 30 league matches. Their overall return of 10 wins, 5 draws, and 15 losses with goals at 29:40 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, the record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses points toward a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Grobiņa Analysis

From their first 31 matches, Grobiņa have collected 26 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Their overall return of 5 wins, 11 draws, and 15 losses with goals at 21:52 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Super Nova won 9 times, Grobiņa won 0 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 43:4 from Super Nova's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 3.62 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (91.9%)
Predicted formations: Super Nova 4-2-3-1 / Grobiņa 4-4-2
H2H summary: Super Nova wins 9, draws 4, Grobiņa wins 0

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 23 5 2 71:22 49 74
D W D W D
2 31 22 7 2 86:30 56 73
W W D D L
3 31 18 7 6 49:30 19 61
D W D W D
4 31 12 7 12 41:43 -2 43
D D D W L
5 31 10 9 12 35:35 0 39
D L D L D
6 30 10 5 15 29:40 -11 35
L L W W D
7 31 8 8 15 32:49 -17 32
L D L W W
8 31 5 11 15 21:52 -31 26
D D L W L
9 31 5 9 17 44:61 -17 24
D L W L L
10 31 4 6 21 30:76 -46 18
W L D L L