ENGLAND › PREMIER LEAGUE
09.05.2026 14:00
Stadium of Light
Referee: S. Attwell
Sunderland
Match Timeline
Manchester United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
54'
Mason Mount
Manchester United
🟨
58'
Joshua Zirkzee
Manchester United
🔄
65'
J. Zirkzee ↔ P. Dorgu
Manchester United
🔄
75'
A. Diallo ↔ B. Mbeumo
Manchester United
🔄
79'
C. Talbi ↔ N. Angulo
Sunderland
🟨
90+3'
Matheus Cunha
Manchester United
🔄
90'
T. Hume ↔ E. Mayenda
Sunderland

Sunderland vs Manchester United Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 89.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 86.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
89.6%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
86.7%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Sunderland Win 10.4%
Draw 0%
Manchester United Win 89.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sunderland1.17
Manchester United1.57
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sunderland Sunderland
WWDLW
39 GF / 48 GA
Manchester United Manchester United
WLDWL
64 GF / 50 GA
Key Stats
1.03
Average Goals Scored
1.78
1.26
Average Goals Conceded
1.39
17
BTTS Yes
27
15
Over 2.5
23
3.63
Shots on Goal
5.78

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sunderland Sunderland 38 matches
Manchester United Manchester United 36 matches
Sunderland Statistic Manchester United
13 Wins 18
12 Draws 10
13 Losses 8
39 Goals For 64
48 Goals Against 50
1.03 Avg Goals Scored 1.78
1.26 Avg Goals Conceded 1.39
17 BTTS Yes 27
26 Over 1.5 31
15 Over 2.5 23
6 Over 3.5 13
11 Clean Sheets 6
13 Failed To Score 3
3.63 Shots On Goal 5.78
10.66 Total Shots 15.67
3.82 Corners 4.72
45.6% Ball Possession 52.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Manchester United's more proactive style and Sunderland's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Manchester United carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 64 points while Sunderland sit 12 on 47, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Manchester United. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Sunderland Analysis

From their first 35 matches, Sunderland have collected 47 points and now occupy 12 place in the table. Their overall return of 12 wins, 11 draws, and 12 losses with goals at 37:46 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by B. Brobbey (6 goals), W. Isidor (5 goals), C. Talbi (4 goals), with creative support from Granit Xhaka (6 assists), E. Le Fee (5 assists), N. Mukiele (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 8 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses fits a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Manchester United Analysis

Manchester United approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 64 points after 35 outings. They have recorded 18 wins, 10 draws, and 7 losses, with a 63:48 goal return and good form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on B. Sesko (11 goals), B. Mbeumo (9 goals), Casemiro (9 goals), with creative support from Bruno Fernandes (19 assists), B. Mbeumo (3 assists), Patrick Dorgu (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, their record of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Sunderland won 3 times, Manchester United won 10 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:26 from Sunderland's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Sunderland 4-2-3-1 / Manchester United 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Sunderland 4, Manchester United 2
H2H summary: Sunderland wins 3, draws 2, Manchester United wins 10

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 26 7 5 71:27 44 85
W W W W W
2 38 23 9 6 77:35 42 78
L D W W D
3 38 20 11 7 69:50 19 71
W W D W W
4 38 19 8 11 56:49 7 65
W W D L L
5 38 17 9 12 63:53 10 60
D L D L W
6 38 13 18 7 58:54 4 57
D D W W D
7 38 14 12 12 42:48 -6 54
W W D D L
8 38 14 11 13 52:46 6 53
L L W L W
9 38 14 11 13 55:52 3 53
D D L W L
10 38 14 10 14 58:52 6 52
L W D L L
11 38 15 7 16 47:51 -4 52
W D L L W
12 38 14 7 17 53:55 -2 49
L W D W L
13 38 13 10 15 47:50 -3 49
L L D D L
14 38 11 14 13 49:56 -7 47
L W D W D
15 38 11 12 15 41:51 -10 45
L D L D L
16 38 11 11 16 48:51 -3 44
D L D W W
17 38 10 11 17 48:57 -9 41
W L D W W
18 38 10 9 19 46:65 -19 39
W L L L W
19 38 4 10 24 38:75 -37 22
D L D L L
20 38 3 11 24 27:68 -41 20
D D L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Championship