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25.10.2026 16:30
Stadium of Light
Referee: S. Attwell
Sunderland
Match Timeline
Leeds
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
29'
Ethan Ampadu
Leeds
🟨
39'
Reinildo Mandava
Sunderland
🔄
52'
Nordi Mukiele ↔ Omar Alderete
Sunderland
🔄
65'
Brian Brobbey ↔ Timur Tuterov
Sunderland
🔄
65'
Brenden Aaronson ↔ Noah Okafor
Leeds
🔄
66'
Harry Wilson ↔ Anton Stach
Leeds
🟨
67'
Jayden Bogle
Leeds
🔄
79'
Enzo Le Fée ↔ Habib Diarra
Sunderland
🔄
79'
Nilson Angulo ↔ Chemsdine Talbi
Sunderland
🔄
85'
Dominic Calvert-Lewin ↔ Lukas Nmecha
Leeds
🔄
89'
Ao Tanaka ↔ Sean Longstaff
Leeds

Sunderland vs Leeds Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 90.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
90.6%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Sunderland Win 45.2%
Draw 9.4%
Leeds Win 45.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sunderland1.16
Leeds1.51
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sunderland Sunderland
D L W L L
6 GF / 11 GA
Leeds Leeds
D L D W D
7 GF / 5 GA
Key Stats
1.46
Average Goals Scored
1.6
1.38
Average Goals Conceded
0.7
7
BTTS Yes
6
5
Over 2.5
3
4.9
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sunderland Sunderland 13 matches
Leeds Leeds 10 matches
Sunderland Statistic Leeds
6 Wins 4
2 Draws 5
5 Losses 1
19 Goals For 16
18 Goals Against 7
1.46 Avg Goals Scored 1.6
1.38 Avg Goals Conceded 0.7
7 BTTS Yes 6
11 Over 1.5 8
5 Over 2.5 3
2 Over 3.5 2
3 Clean Sheets 4
3 Failed To Score 1
4.9 Shots On Goal 4
14.8 Total Shots 11.86
5.7 Corners 4
50.2% Ball Possession 48%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Leeds's more proactive style and Sunderland's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Leeds. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Leeds carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 8 with 9 points while Sunderland sit 18 on 4, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Sunderland have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sunderland expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Leeds in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Leeds having the stronger overall control.

Sunderland Analysis

Sunderland approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 18 with 4 points from 6 matches. The overall return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 4 defeats with a 6:12 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on B. Brobbey (3 goals), E. Le Fée (1 goals), N. Angulo (1 goals), with creative support from E. Le Fée (1 assists), N. Angulo (1 assists), T. Meunier (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Leeds Analysis

Leeds sit 8 with 9 points after 6 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, while the 8:5 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on D. Calvert-Lewin (2 goals), J. Bogle (2 goals), A. Stach (1 goals), with creative support from D. Calvert-Lewin (1 assists), T. Muharemović (1 assists), G. Gudmundsson (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Sunderland won 3 times, Leeds won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:9 from Sunderland's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.7 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.6%)
Predicted formations: Sunderland 4-2-3-1 / Leeds 3-5-2
Missing players: Sunderland 5, Leeds 5
H2H summary: Sunderland wins 3, draws 4, Leeds wins 3

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 9 0 1 15:5 10 27
W W W W W
2 10 7 1 2 26:7 19 22
W W L W W
3 10 7 0 3 21:13 8 21
L L L W W
4 10 5 3 2 14:10 4 18
W L W W L
5 10 5 1 4 19:16 3 16
L W L W W
6 10 4 4 2 12:10 2 16
W W L L D
7 10 4 3 3 16:14 2 15
W W W W L
8 10 3 5 2 16:11 5 14
L W D L D
9
Leeds Away
10 3 5 2 10:8 2 14
W L D D L
10 10 3 4 3 14:17 -3 13
D D W W D
11 10 3 3 4 10:11 -1 12
L W W W D
12 10 3 3 4 13:16 -3 12
D L W L L
13 10 2 5 3 11:11 0 11
L D D L D
14 10 3 2 5 15:20 -5 11
L D D L W
15 10 2 4 4 10:12 -2 10
D D W W L
16 10 2 3 5 9:13 -4 9
W L D L L
17 10 3 0 7 10:19 -9 9
L W L L W
18 10 1 5 4 14:19 -5 8
D L L D D
19 10 2 2 6 8:17 -9 8
W L D L L
20 10 2 1 7 10:24 -14 7
L L L L W
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Relegation - Championship