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ENGLAND › PREMIER LEAGUE
10.10.2026 14:00
Stadium of Light
Referee: Thomas Bramall

Sunderland vs Brighton Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 95.6%
Odds 1.28
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.85
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
95.6%
1.28 ▥
BTTS Yes
71%
1.62 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.85 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.26 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
5.00 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
13.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Sunderland Win 52%
Draw 4.4%
Brighton Win 43.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sunderland1.39
Brighton2.21
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sunderland Sunderland
WWDLW
16 GF / 12 GA
Brighton Brighton
WLDWL
28 GF / 8 GA
Key Stats
1.78
Average Goals Scored
2.8
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
0.8
5
BTTS Yes
3
4
Over 2.5
7
5
Shots on Goal
6.14

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sunderland Sunderland 9 matches
Brighton Brighton 10 matches
Sunderland Statistic Brighton
5 Wins 7
1 Draws 2
3 Losses 1
16 Goals For 28
12 Goals Against 8
1.78 Avg Goals Scored 2.8
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 0.8
5 BTTS Yes 3
7 Over 1.5 8
4 Over 2.5 7
2 Over 3.5 5
3 Clean Sheets 7
1 Failed To Score 1
5 Shots On Goal 6.14
14.33 Total Shots 20.14
5.33 Corners 6.43
47.8% Ball Possession 67%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Brighton's more proactive style and Sunderland's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Brighton. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Brighton carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 10 points while Sunderland sit 14 on 4, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Sunderland have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Sunderland Analysis

Sunderland approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 4 points from 5 matches. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 6:10 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on B. Brobbey (3 goals), E. Le Fée (1 goals), N. Angulo (1 goals), with creative support from E. Le Fée (1 assists), N. Angulo (1 assists), T. Meunier (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Brighton Analysis

Brighton come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 10 points after 5 matches. With 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 16:5, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by P. Groß (3 goals), C. Kostoulas (2 goals), M. Yalcouyé (2 goals), with creative support from P. Groß (3 assists), M. De Cuyper (2 assists), D. Gómez (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the split of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Sunderland won 0 times, Brighton won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 0:2 from Sunderland's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 0.67 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.6%)
Predicted formations: Sunderland 4-2-3-1 / Brighton 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Sunderland 4, Brighton 9
H2H summary: Sunderland wins 0, draws 1, Brighton wins 2

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 5 5 0 0 13:5 8 15
W W W W W
2 5 4 0 1 8:4 4 12
L W W W W
3 5 3 1 1 16:5 11 10
W W D L W
4 5 2 3 0 10:4 6 9
W D D D W
5 5 2 3 0 7:3 4 9
D W D D W
6 5 2 3 0 7:4 3 9
W D W D D
7 5 2 3 0 6:3 3 9
W D D D W
8 5 2 2 1 6:4 2 8
L D D W W
9 5 2 2 1 9:9 0 8
W L D W D
10 5 2 1 2 10:12 -2 7
L D L W W
11 5 2 0 3 7:11 -4 6
L W L L W
12 5 1 2 2 8:8 0 5
D L D W L
13 5 1 2 2 4:5 -1 5
L W D D L
14 5 1 1 3 6:10 -4 4
L L D W L
15 5 1 1 3 6:11 -5 4
D L W L L
16 5 1 1 3 4:9 -5 4
W L D L L
17 5 0 3 2 6:8 -2 3
L D D D L
18 5 1 0 4 1:10 -9 3
W L L L L
19 5 0 2 3 5:8 -3 2
D D L L L
20 5 0 2 3 2:8 -6 2
L D D L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Relegation - Championship