NORWAY 1. DIVISION
--.--.---- --:--
Marienlyst Stadion
Referee: J. Haugen
Stromsgodset
Match Timeline
Raufoss
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
33'
L. Vilsvik
Stromsgodset
🟨
38'
A. Rogulj
Raufoss
38'
A. Rogulj
Raufoss
45'
S. Pingel · Assist: L. Vilsvik
Stromsgodset
🔄
46'
E. Sildnes ↔ R. Zekhnini
Raufoss
🔄
61'
A. Rogulj ↔ D. de Ornelas de Conno
Raufoss
🔄
66'
M. Aanesland ↔ T. Naustdal
Raufoss
🔄
66'
S. Gjelsvik ↔ N. Fremstad
Raufoss
68'
S. Pingel · Assist: K. Antonsen
Stromsgodset
🔄
70'
K. Antonsen ↔ M. Mehnert
Stromsgodset
73'
M. Mehnert
Stromsgodset
75'
S. Pingel · Assist: M. Mehnert
Stromsgodset
🔄
77'
L. Vilsvik ↔ O. Enersen
Stromsgodset
🔄
77'
S. Pingel ↔ M. Spiten
Stromsgodset
🔄
77'
E. Melkersen ↔ G. Wikheim
Stromsgodset
🔄
81'
K. Krasniqi ↔ A. Heredia-Randen
Stromsgodset
🔄
85'
A. Achinioti-Jonsson ↔ U. Danbolt
Raufoss
90'
V. Dedes · Assist: M. Mehnert
Stromsgodset

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 85.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
85.5%
-
BTTS Yes
71%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Stromsgodset Win 85.5%
Draw 3.9%
Raufoss Win 10.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Stromsgodset2
Raufoss1.65
Recent Form (Last 5)
Stromsgodset Stromsgodset
WWDLW
40 GF / 30 GA
Raufoss Raufoss
WLDWL
31 GF / 32 GA
Key Stats
2.22
Average Goals Scored
1.63
1.67
Average Goals Conceded
1.68
11
BTTS Yes
11
13
Over 2.5
13
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Stromsgodset Stromsgodset 18 matches
Raufoss Raufoss 19 matches
Stromsgodset Statistic Raufoss
8 Wins 7
5 Draws 4
5 Losses 8
40 Goals For 31
30 Goals Against 32
2.22 Avg Goals Scored 1.63
1.67 Avg Goals Conceded 1.68
11 BTTS Yes 11
17 Over 1.5 16
13 Over 2.5 13
7 Over 3.5 7
5 Clean Sheets 5
2 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Stromsgodset's more proactive style and Raufoss's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Raufoss. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Raufoss having the stronger overall control. Stromsgodset arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 23 points compared to Raufoss in 14 on 7, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Stromsgodset Analysis

Stromsgodset arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 1 place with 23 points after 10 matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses with goals at 26:11 reflects poor form . Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Raufoss Analysis

Raufoss sit 14 with 7 points after 10 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 7 defeats with a 12:21 goal balance points toward poor form . Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Stromsgodset won 3 times, Raufoss won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:2 from Stromsgodset's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.1%)
Predicted formations: Stromsgodset - / Raufoss 3-4-3
H2H summary: Stromsgodset wins 3, draws 1, Raufoss wins 0

Lineups

Stromsgodset
Formation
Raufoss
S. Lampinen-Skaug
S. Lampinen-Skaug
L. Vilsvik
🎯
L. Vilsvik
J. Taaje
J. Taaje
G. Valsvik
G. Valsvik
V. Dedes
V. Dedes
K. Krasniqi
K. Krasniqi
K. Antonsen
🎯
K. Antonsen
F. P. Vilaseca Ardraa
F. P. Vilaseca Ardraa
H. Stengel
H. Stengel
E. Melkersen
E. Melkersen
S. Pingel
⚽ 3
S. Pingel
A. Klemensson
A. Klemensson
J. Sjol
J. Sjol
E. Froysa
E. Froysa
M. Larsen
M. Larsen
S. Gjelsvik
S. Gjelsvik
E. Asvestad
E. Asvestad
M. Aanesland
M. Aanesland
T. Engebakken
T. Engebakken
A. Achinioti-Jonsson
A. Achinioti-Jonsson
E. Sildnes
E. Sildnes
A. Rogulj
A. Rogulj
Stromsgodset 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
12
S. Lampinen-Skaug
26
L. Vilsvik
⚽ 33' 🎯 45' ↓ 77'
25
J. Taaje
71
G. Valsvik
3
V. Dedes
⚽ 90'
8
K. Krasniqi
↓ 81'
22
K. Antonsen
🎯 68' ↓ 70'
16
F. P. Vilaseca Ardraa
10
H. Stengel
9
E. Melkersen
↓ 77'
11
S. Pingel
⚽ 45' ⚽ 68' ⚽ 75' ↓ 77'
Substitutes
52
S. S. Elind
5
B. Sormo
14
O. Enersen
↑ 77'
15
A. Heredia-Randen
↑ 81'
37
S. A. Marcello Silalahi
39
M. Spiten
↑ 77'
47
S. Andresen
77
M. Mehnert
⚽ 73' 🎯 75' 🎯 90' ↑ 70'
80
G. Wikheim
↑ 77'
Raufoss 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
A. Klemensson
2
J. Sjol
6
E. Froysa
16
M. Larsen
4
S. Gjelsvik
↓ 66'
3
E. Asvestad
10
M. Aanesland
↓ 66'
18
T. Engebakken
13
A. Achinioti-Jonsson
↓ 85'
7
E. Sildnes
↓ 46'
9
A. Rogulj
⚽ 38' ↓ 61' 🟨 38'
Substitutes
12
M. G. Synstelien D.
8
T. Naustdal
↑ 66'
11
N. Fremstad
↑ 66'
15
D. de Ornelas de Conno
↑ 61'
22
F. F. Da Silva
25
T. E. Engebakken
27
R. Zekhnini
↑ 46'
30
J. Dalen Korsaksel
31
U. Danbolt
↑ 85'
Last matches: Stromsgodset
04.07.26
1.
Stromsgodset
hodd
3
4
L
27.06.26
1.
Stromsgodset
ODD Ballklubb
2
2
D
21.06.26
1.
Stromsgodset
Kongsvinger
4
4
D
31.05.26
1.
Stromsgodset
Egersund
5
0
W
25.05.26
1.
Stromsgodset
Bryne
1
0
W
20.05.26
1.
Stromsgodset
Moss
1
1
D
16.05.26
1.
Stromsgodset
Ranheim
5
4
W
10.05.26
1.
Stromsgodset
Asane
3
0
W
01.05.26
1.
Stromsgodset
Strommen
3
0
W
26.04.26
1.
Stromsgodset
Sandnes ULF
1
1
D
18.04.26
1.
Stromsgodset
Sogndal
3
0
W
11.04.26
1.
Stromsgodset
Haugesund
2
4
L
05.04.26
1.
Stromsgodset
Stabaek
2
1
W
27.03.26
Fri
Stromsgodset
Sandefjord
2
2
D
20.03.26
Fri
Stromsgodset
Hønefoss
3
1
W
13.03.26
Fri
Stromsgodset
Mjondalen
1
1
D
07.03.26
Fri
Stromsgodset
Valerenga
3
4
L
28.02.26
Fri
Stromsgodset
KFUM Oslo
0
3
L
18.02.26
Fri
Stromsgodset
ODD Ballklubb
0
2
L
13.02.26
Fri
Stromsgodset
Lillestrom
4
4
D
Last matches: Raufoss
03.07.26
1.
Raufoss
Strommen
1
0
W
27.06.26
1.
Raufoss
Sandnes ULF
0
3
L
21.06.26
1.
Raufoss
Sogndal
3
1
W
31.05.26
1.
Raufoss
Haugesund
3
4
L
25.05.26
1.
Raufoss
Asane
0
3
L
20.05.26
1.
Raufoss
Bryne
3
0
W
16.05.26
1.
Raufoss
Stabaek
2
1
W
10.05.26
1.
Raufoss
Lyn
0
1
L
06.05.26
1.
Raufoss
Egersund
1
2
L
01.05.26
1.
Raufoss
ODD Ballklubb
0
1
L
26.04.26
1.
Raufoss
hodd
1
1
D
17.04.26
1.
Raufoss
Ranheim
1
5
L
13.04.26
1.
Raufoss
Kongsvinger
1
3
L
29.03.26
Fri
Raufoss
Mjondalen
3
2
W
21.03.26
Fri
Raufoss
Sogndal
1
1
D
14.03.26
Fri
Raufoss
Kjelsås
1
4
L
07.03.26
Fri
Raufoss
Strommen
3
0
W
27.02.26
Fri
Raufoss
Moss
3
3
D
15.02.26
Fri
Raufoss
Sandnes ULF
0
0
D
06.02.26
Fri
Raufoss
Lyn
2
1
W
H2H: Stromsgodset vs Raufoss
14.06.26
H2H
Stromsgodset
Raufoss
6
1
W
09.02.23
H2H
Stromsgodset
Raufoss
2
0
W
12.03.22
H2H
Raufoss
Stromsgodset
1
1
D
09.06.20
H2H
Stromsgodset
Raufoss
3
0
W
Last matches: Stromsgodset
27.06.26
1.
Stromsgodset
ODD Ballklubb
2
2
D
25.05.26
1.
Stromsgodset
Bryne
1
0
W
16.05.26
1.
Stromsgodset
Ranheim
5
4
W
01.05.26
1.
Stromsgodset
Strommen
3
0
W
18.04.26
1.
Stromsgodset
Sogndal
3
0
W
05.04.26
1.
Stromsgodset
Stabaek
2
1
W
27.03.26
Fri
Stromsgodset
Sandefjord
2
2
D
20.03.26
Fri
Stromsgodset
Hønefoss
3
1
W
13.03.26
Fri
Stromsgodset
Mjondalen
1
1
D
H2H at home: Stromsgodset
14.06.26
H2H
Stromsgodset
Raufoss
6
1
W
09.02.23
H2H
Stromsgodset
Raufoss
2
0
W
09.06.20
H2H
Stromsgodset
Raufoss
3
0
W
Last matches: Raufoss
27.06.26
1.
Raufoss
Sandnes ULF
0
3
L
25.05.26
1.
Raufoss
Asane
0
3
L
16.05.26
1.
Raufoss
Stabaek
2
1
W
06.05.26
1.
Raufoss
Egersund
1
2
L
01.05.26
1.
Raufoss
ODD Ballklubb
0
1
L
17.04.26
1.
Raufoss
Ranheim
1
5
L
21.03.26
Fri
Raufoss
Sogndal
1
1
D
H2H away: Raufoss
14.06.26
H2H
Stromsgodset
Raufoss
6
1
L
09.02.23
H2H
Stromsgodset
Raufoss
2
0
L
09.06.20
H2H
Stromsgodset
Raufoss
3
0
L

Standings

OBOS-ligaen
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 14 10 1 3 43:26 17 31
W W L W W
2 14 9 3 2 36:21 15 30
W L D W W
3 14 8 4 2 41:22 19 28
L D D W W
4 14 8 3 3 32:16 16 27
W W L W D
5 14 7 3 4 27:19 8 24
L D D L W
6 14 6 3 5 22:19 3 21
W W D L L
7 14 6 2 6 22:20 2 20
D W W W L
8 14 6 2 6 34:34 0 20
L L W L D
9 14 6 1 7 24:25 -1 19
W L W L L
10 14 5 2 7 19:23 -4 17
D L W W W
11 14 5 2 7 23:32 -9 17
L L L W D
12 14 4 3 7 25:36 -11 15
L W L L W
13 14 4 1 9 17:30 -13 13
W L L L L
14 14 4 1 9 17:31 -14 13
W L W L L
15 14 4 1 9 20:30 -10 12
L W L W L
16 14 3 2 9 18:36 -18 11
L W W L D
Promotion - Eliteserien
Promotion - OBOS-ligaen (Promotion - Play Offs: Final)
Promotion - OBOS-ligaen (Promotion - Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - OBOS-ligaen (Promotion - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
OBOS-ligaen (Relegation)
Relegation