NORWAY 1. DIVISION
20.09.2026 15:00
Nadderud Stadion
Referee: O. Valen

Stabaek vs Sogndal Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 88%
Odds 1.32
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds 1.40
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.22
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
88%
1.32
BTTS Yes
75%
1.40
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.22
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
1.87
HT / FT Home / Home
-
1.91
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00
Probability Distribution
Stabaek Win 88%
Draw 5.2%
Sogndal Win 6.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Stabaek2.28
Sogndal1.63
Recent Form (Last 5)
Stabaek Stabaek
WWDLW
77 GF / 42 GA
Sogndal Sogndal
WLDWL
59 GF / 67 GA
Key Stats
2.41
Average Goals Scored
1.84
1.31
Average Goals Conceded
2.09
19
BTTS Yes
22
23
Over 2.5
21
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Stabaek Stabaek 32 matches
Sogndal Sogndal 32 matches
Stabaek Statistic Sogndal
19 Wins 9
4 Draws 9
9 Losses 14
77 Goals For 59
42 Goals Against 67
2.41 Avg Goals Scored 1.84
1.31 Avg Goals Conceded 2.09
19 BTTS Yes 22
29 Over 1.5 31
23 Over 2.5 21
17 Over 3.5 18
11 Clean Sheets 3
2 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Stabaek's more proactive style and Sogndal's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Sogndal. Stabaek arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 42 points compared to Sogndal in 14 on 22, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Sogndal having the stronger overall control.

Stabaek Analysis

With 42 points from 22 games and a place of 3, Stabaek still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 13 wins, 3 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 55:28 goal record continues to suggest mixed form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 8 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

Sogndal Analysis

Sogndal approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 22 points from 21 matches. Their record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 11 losses, together with goals at 36:50, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Stabaek won 3 times, Sogndal won 4 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:19 from Stabaek's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.77 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.8%)
H2H summary: Stabaek wins 3, draws 6, Sogndal wins 4

Standings

1. Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 16 1 5 68:37 31 49
W W W W L
2 22 14 5 3 63:34 29 47
D W D W W
3 22 13 6 3 58:31 27 45
W D W W W
4 22 13 3 6 55:28 27 42
L L L W W
5 23 11 2 10 32:31 1 35
W W L L W
6 22 10 4 8 37:40 -3 34
L D W L W
7 22 9 6 7 42:35 7 33
L D W L L
8 22 8 5 9 35:39 -4 29
D D D L L
9 22 8 4 10 38:44 -6 28
W D D W W
10 22 7 4 11 52:57 -5 25
D D L L L
11 22 7 4 11 33:48 -15 25
D W W W L
12 22 7 3 12 31:40 -9 24
L D W L L
13 22 6 5 11 37:51 -14 23
D L L D W
14 22 6 4 12 36:51 -15 22
L W L D L
15 23 5 5 13 34:52 -18 20
L D D D L
16 22 6 1 15 26:59 -33 19
W L L L L
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