NORWAY 1. DIVISION
05.09.2026 18:00
Nadderud Stadion
Referee: A. Medic
Stabaek
Match Timeline
Moss
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
10'
O. Aga
Moss
20'
N. Semmen · Assist: P. Andersen
Moss
33'
F. Krogstad · Assist: J. Hanstad
Stabaek
45'
J. Hanstad
Stabaek
🔄
46'
K. Strande ↔ N. Ibsen
Moss
🔄
57'
G. Rapp ↔ A. Aamodt
Stabaek
🟨
68'
J. Musbaudeen
Moss
🔄
71'
M. Njie ↔ N. Alexandersson
Moss
🔄
77'
J. Skjelvik ↔ O. Veum
Stabaek
🔄
77'
A. Matic ↔ D. dos Santos Jonker
Stabaek
🔄
77'
J. Hanstad ↔ A. Sanyang
Stabaek
82'
L. Overgaard
Moss
🔄
83'
N. Semmen ↔ R. Hermanstad
Moss
🔄
87'
K. Ekorness ↔ E. Lereng
Stabaek

Stabaek vs Moss Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 83.1%
Odds 1.35
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.50
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87%
Odds 1.27
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
83.1%
1.35
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.50
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87%
1.27
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
1.88
HT / FT Home / Home
-
1.95
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.50
Probability Distribution
Stabaek Win 83.1%
Draw 3.4%
Moss Win 13.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Stabaek2.36
Moss1.49
Recent Form (Last 5)
Stabaek Stabaek
WWDLW
75 GF / 37 GA
Moss Moss
WLDWL
53 GF / 69 GA
Key Stats
2.5
Average Goals Scored
1.66
1.23
Average Goals Conceded
2.16
18
BTTS Yes
24
22
Over 2.5
26
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Stabaek Stabaek 30 matches
Moss Moss 32 matches
Stabaek Statistic Moss
19 Wins 8
4 Draws 6
7 Losses 18
75 Goals For 53
37 Goals Against 69
2.5 Avg Goals Scored 1.66
1.23 Avg Goals Conceded 2.16
18 BTTS Yes 24
27 Over 1.5 31
22 Over 2.5 26
16 Over 3.5 17
11 Clean Sheets 3
1 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Stabaek's more proactive style and Moss's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Stabaek arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 42 points compared to Moss in 13 on 19, which underlines the gap in season consistency. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Moss having the stronger overall control. Stabaek come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Moss.

Stabaek Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 42 points from 19 games, Stabaek bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 13 wins, 3 draws, and 3 defeats, together with goals at 52:21, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained very solid. At home, the split of 8 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Moss Analysis

With 19 points from 19 games and a place of 13, Moss still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 10 losses, together with goals at 31:43, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 0 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Stabaek won 1 times, Moss won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:16 from Stabaek's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 4.83 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.6%)
H2H summary: Stabaek wins 1, draws 3, Moss wins 2

Standings

1. Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 16 1 5 68:37 31 49
W W W W L
2 22 14 5 3 63:34 29 47
D W D W W
3 22 13 6 3 58:31 27 45
W D W W W
4 22 13 3 6 55:28 27 42
L L L W W
5 22 10 4 8 37:40 -3 34
L D W L W
6 22 9 6 7 42:35 7 33
L D W L L
7 22 10 2 10 28:31 -3 32
W L L W W
8 22 8 5 9 35:39 -4 29
D D D L L
9 22 8 4 10 38:44 -6 28
W D D W W
10 22 7 4 11 52:57 -5 25
D D L L L
11 22 7 4 11 33:48 -15 25
D W W W L
12 22 7 3 12 31:40 -9 24
L D W L L
13 22 6 5 11 37:51 -14 23
D L L D W
14
Moss Away
22 6 4 12 36:51 -15 22
L W L D L
15 22 5 5 12 34:48 -14 20
D D D L W
16 22 6 1 15 26:59 -33 19
W L L L L
Promotion
Promotion Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation