IRELAND › PREMIER DIVISION
15.05.2026 18:45
Richmond Park
Referee: R. Hennessey
St Patrick's Athl.
Match Timeline
Shelbourne
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
15'
Luke Turner
St Patrick's Athl.
🟨
28'
Sean Hoare
St Patrick's Athl.
🟨
39'
Kerr McInroy
Shelbourne
🔄
46'
K. McInroy ↔ E. Caffrey
Shelbourne
🟨
57'
Milan Mbeng
Shelbourne
🔄
58'
A. Coote ↔ D. Kelly
Shelbourne
🔄
58'
M. Mbeng ↔ S. Gannon
Shelbourne
🔄
73'
W. Jarvis ↔ R. Freitas
Shelbourne
🟨
76'
Zeno Ibsen Rossi
Shelbourne
🔄
76'
B. Baggley ↔ R. Palmer
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
77'
C. Forrester ↔ D. Nugent
St Patrick's Athl.
🟨
80'
John Martin
Shelbourne
🔄
80'
R. Edmondson ↔ A. Keena
St Patrick's Athl.
⚽
82'
D. Kelly · Assist: R. Freitas
Shelbourne
🟨
84'
Jamie Lennon
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
89'
J. Brown ↔ J. McClelland
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
89'
J. Lennon ↔ S. Rooney
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
89'
J. Martin ↔ E. Chapman
Shelbourne
🟨
90+6'
Sean Hoare
St Patrick's Athl.
🟥
90+6'
Sean Hoare
St Patrick's Athl.
🟨
90+5'
Sean Gannon
Shelbourne
🟨
90+2'
Wessel Speel
Shelbourne

St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 53.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 94.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
53.5%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
94.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
St Patrick's Athl. Win 53.5%
Draw 9.2%
Shelbourne Win 37.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
St Patrick's Athl.1.75
Shelbourne1.43
Recent Form (Last 5)
St Patrick's Athl. St Patrick's Athl.
WWDLW
35 GF / 16 GA
Shelbourne Shelbourne
WLDWL
34 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
1.94
Average Goals Scored
1.79
0.89
Average Goals Conceded
1.47
9
BTTS Yes
15
9
Over 2.5
14
5.88
Shots on Goal
4.4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

St Patrick's Athl. St Patrick's Athl. 18 matches
Shelbourne Shelbourne 19 matches
St Patrick's Athl. Statistic Shelbourne
10 Wins 7
5 Draws 7
3 Losses 5
35 Goals For 34
16 Goals Against 28
1.94 Avg Goals Scored 1.79
0.89 Avg Goals Conceded 1.47
9 BTTS Yes 15
14 Over 1.5 16
9 Over 2.5 14
8 Over 3.5 8
6 Clean Sheets 4
5 Failed To Score 2
5.88 Shots On Goal 4.4
17.19 Total Shots 14.4
5.44 Corners 5.8
54.1% Ball Possession 54.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around St Patrick's Athl.'s more proactive style and Shelbourne's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with St Patrick's Athl. expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Shelbourne in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Shelbourne having the stronger overall control. St Patrick's Athl. arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 31 points compared to Shelbourne in 7 on 18, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Shelbourne. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

St Patrick's Athl. Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 31 points from 16 games, St Patrick's Athl. bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 9 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats, together with goals at 31:15, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through R. Edmondson (8 goals), K. Leavy (4 goals), A. Keena (3 goals), with creative support from K. Leavy (3 assists), Z. Elbouzedi (3 assists), J. Lennon (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, the split of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Shelbourne Analysis

So far, Shelbourne have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 18 points from 15 matches. The record of 4 wins, 6 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 23:24 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through H. Wood (6 goals), J. Martin (6 goals), Daniel Kelly (3 goals), with creative support from M. Lundgren (3 assists), H. Wood (2 assists), A. Coote (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, St Patrick's Athl. won 6 times, Shelbourne won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:16 from St Patrick's Athl.'s perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.8%)
Predicted formations: St Patrick's Athl. 4-4-2 / Shelbourne 3-5-2
H2H summary: St Patrick's Athl. wins 6, draws 2, Shelbourne wins 7

Standings

Premier Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 17 8 7 52:25 27 59
W W W L W
2 31 17 8 6 49:31 18 59
W L D D W
3 31 16 8 7 55:37 18 56
W W W W L
4 32 9 14 9 45:42 3 41
W D W D L
5 32 10 11 11 49:53 -4 41
L L D W L
6 32 9 13 10 42:45 -3 40
D W L L D
7 32 9 11 12 42:48 -6 38
D L W L D
8 32 7 13 12 44:54 -10 34
L D D W D
9 32 8 10 14 38:51 -13 34
L W W L L
10 32 5 8 19 24:54 -30 23
L L L L D
Play-offs
Qualifying
Relegation Play-offs
Relegation