IRELAND PREMIER DIVISION
--.--.---- --:--
Richmond Park
Referee: R. Hennessey
St Patrick's Athl.
Match Timeline
Shelbourne
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
15'
Luke Turner
St Patrick's Athl.
🟨
28'
Sean Hoare
St Patrick's Athl.
🟨
39'
Kerr McInroy
Shelbourne
🔄
46'
K. McInroy ↔ E. Caffrey
Shelbourne
🟨
57'
Milan Mbeng
Shelbourne
🔄
58'
A. Coote ↔ D. Kelly
Shelbourne
🔄
58'
M. Mbeng ↔ S. Gannon
Shelbourne
🔄
73'
W. Jarvis ↔ R. Freitas
Shelbourne
🟨
76'
Zeno Ibsen Rossi
Shelbourne
🔄
76'
B. Baggley ↔ R. Palmer
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
77'
C. Forrester ↔ D. Nugent
St Patrick's Athl.
🟨
80'
John Martin
Shelbourne
🔄
80'
R. Edmondson ↔ A. Keena
St Patrick's Athl.
82'
D. Kelly · Assist: R. Freitas
Shelbourne
🟨
84'
Jamie Lennon
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
89'
J. Brown ↔ J. McClelland
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
89'
J. Lennon ↔ S. Rooney
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
89'
J. Martin ↔ E. Chapman
Shelbourne
🟨
90+6'
Sean Hoare
St Patrick's Athl.
🟥
90+6'
Sean Hoare
St Patrick's Athl.
🟨
90+5'
Sean Gannon
Shelbourne
🟨
90+2'
Wessel Speel
Shelbourne

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 53.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 94.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
53.5%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
94.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
St Patrick's Athl. Win 53.5%
Draw 9.2%
Shelbourne Win 37.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
St Patrick's Athl.1.75
Shelbourne1.43
Recent Form (Last 5)
St Patrick's Athl. St Patrick's Athl.
WWDLW
35 GF / 16 GA
Shelbourne Shelbourne
WLDWL
34 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
1.94
Average Goals Scored
1.79
0.89
Average Goals Conceded
1.47
9
BTTS Yes
15
9
Over 2.5
14
5.88
Shots on Goal
4.4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

St Patrick's Athl. St Patrick's Athl. 18 matches
Shelbourne Shelbourne 19 matches
St Patrick's Athl. Statistic Shelbourne
10 Wins 7
5 Draws 7
3 Losses 5
35 Goals For 34
16 Goals Against 28
1.94 Avg Goals Scored 1.79
0.89 Avg Goals Conceded 1.47
9 BTTS Yes 15
14 Over 1.5 16
9 Over 2.5 14
8 Over 3.5 8
6 Clean Sheets 4
5 Failed To Score 2
5.88 Shots On Goal 4.4
17.19 Total Shots 14.4
5.44 Corners 5.8
54.1% Ball Possession 54.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around St Patrick's Athl.'s more proactive style and Shelbourne's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with St Patrick's Athl. expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Shelbourne in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Shelbourne having the stronger overall control. St Patrick's Athl. arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 31 points compared to Shelbourne in 7 on 18, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Shelbourne. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

St Patrick's Athl. Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 31 points from 16 games, St Patrick's Athl. bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 9 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats, together with goals at 31:15, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through R. Edmondson (8 goals), K. Leavy (4 goals), A. Keena (3 goals), with creative support from K. Leavy (3 assists), Z. Elbouzedi (3 assists), J. Lennon (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, the split of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Shelbourne Analysis

So far, Shelbourne have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 18 points from 15 matches. The record of 4 wins, 6 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 23:24 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through H. Wood (6 goals), J. Martin (6 goals), Daniel Kelly (3 goals), with creative support from M. Lundgren (3 assists), H. Wood (2 assists), A. Coote (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, St Patrick's Athl. won 6 times, Shelbourne won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:15 from St Patrick's Athl.'s perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.8%)
Predicted formations: St Patrick's Athl. 4-4-2 / Shelbourne 3-5-2
H2H summary: St Patrick's Athl. wins 6, draws 2, Shelbourne wins 7
Stats
St Patrick's Athl. St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne Shelbourne
Shots on Goal
2
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
9
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
1
Blocked Shots
7
5 Corner Kicks 4
3 Fouls 16
1 Offsides 2
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Goal 3
9 Shots off Goal 2
1 Blocked Shots 7
6 Shots insidebox 8
6 Shots outsidebox 4
2 Goalkeeper Saves 2
549 Total passes 358
466 Passes accurate 287
0.65 expected_goals 0.80
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 6 🟨
🟥 1 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

St Patrick's Athl.
Formation
Shelbourne
J. Anang
J. Anang
J. Redmond
J. Redmond
S. Hoare
S. Hoare
L. Turner
L. Turner
J. Brown
J. Brown
J. Lennon
J. Lennon
B. Baggley
B. Baggley
Z. Elbouzedi
Z. Elbouzedi
K. Leavy
K. Leavy
R. Edmondson
R. Edmondson
C. Forrester
C. Forrester
W. Speel
W. Speel
M. Mbeng
M. Mbeng
S. Bone
S. Bone
Z. Ibsen Rossi
Z. Ibsen Rossi
K. Ledwidge
K. Ledwidge
A. Coote
A. Coote
K. McInroy
K. McInroy
J. Lunney
J. Lunney
H. Wood
H. Wood
W. Jarvis
W. Jarvis
J. Martin
J. Martin
St Patrick's Athl. 3-4-3
Starting XI
94
J. Anang
G
4
J. Redmond
D
2
S. Hoare
🟨 28' 🟨 90+6' 🟥 90+6'
D
24
L. Turner
🟨 15'
D
23
J. Brown
↓ 89'
M
6
J. Lennon
↓ 89' 🟨 84'
M
19
B. Baggley
↓ 76'
M
7
Z. Elbouzedi
M
10
K. Leavy
F
27
R. Edmondson
↓ 80'
F
8
C. Forrester
↓ 77'
F
Substitutes
1
D. Rogers
G
11
J. McClelland
↑ 89'
F
9
A. Keena
↑ 80'
F
35
S. Rooney
↑ 89'
F
3
A. Breslin
D
17
R. Palmer
↑ 76'
M
16
D. Nugent
↑ 77'
M
5
T. Grivosti
D
42
G. Nzingo
M
Shelbourne 4-5-1
Starting XI
1
W. Speel
🟨 90+2'
G
25
M. Mbeng
↓ 58' 🟨 57'
D
15
S. Bone
D
24
Z. Ibsen Rossi
🟨 76'
D
4
K. Ledwidge
D
14
A. Coote
↓ 58'
M
23
K. McInroy
↓ 46' 🟨 39'
M
6
J. Lunney
M
7
H. Wood
M
36
W. Jarvis
↓ 73'
M
10
J. Martin
↓ 89' 🟨 80'
F
Substitutes
31
C. Walsh
G
17
D. Kelly
⚽ 82' ↑ 58'
M
27
E. Caffrey
↑ 46'
M
28
M. Lundgren
M
2
S. Gannon
↑ 58' 🟨 90+5'
D
9
S. Boyd
F
5
E. Chapman
↑ 89'
M
11
M. Odubeko
F
20
R. Freitas
🎯 82' ↑ 73'
F
Last matches: St Patrick's Athl.
14.07.26
Fri
St Patrick's Athl.
Doncaster
2
4
L
10.07.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
1
1
D
03.07.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Galway United
3
0
W
26.06.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Bohemians
0
2
L
19.06.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Sligo Rovers
2
0
W
12.06.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Drogheda United
2
0
W
29.05.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Shamrock Rovers
0
1
L
22.05.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Derry City
0
0
D
08.05.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
4
1
W
04.05.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Sligo Rovers
1
1
D
01.05.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Galway United
2
2
D
24.04.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Bohemians
3
1
W
17.04.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Drogheda United
3
1
W
10.04.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Shamrock Rovers
0
1
L
06.04.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
0
2
L
03.04.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Sligo Rovers
4
1
W
20.03.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
2
0
W
16.03.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Derry City
0
0
D
13.03.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Drogheda United
4
1
W
06.03.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
3
2
W
Last matches: Shelbourne
07.07.26
Fri
Shelbourne
Celtic
1
1
D
03.07.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
1
W
27.06.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Sligo Rovers
2
2
D
22.06.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Bohemians
0
3
L
19.06.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Drogheda United
2
2
D
12.06.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Shamrock Rovers
2
1
W
29.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Galway United
1
1
D
25.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Derry City
0
0
D
22.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Waterford
2
1
W
08.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Sligo Rovers
0
0
D
04.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Bohemians
2
2
D
01.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
1
W
24.04.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Drogheda United
3
4
L
17.04.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Derry City
1
2
L
06.04.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Shamrock Rovers
2
3
L
03.04.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
3
L
21.03.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Sligo Rovers
1
0
W
16.03.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Bohemians
0
0
D
13.03.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Derry City
2
1
W
09.03.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Shamrock Rovers
2
2
D
H2H: St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne
15.05.26
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
0
1
L
06.03.26
H2H
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
2
3
W
01.11.25
H2H
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
0
0
D
17.08.25
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
2
0
W
16.06.25
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
0
1
L
09.05.25
H2H
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
2
1
L
04.04.25
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
0
0
D
30.09.24
H2H
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
2
3
W
20.05.24
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
1
2
L
26.04.24
H2H
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
1
0
L
15.03.24
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
1
2
L
01.09.23
H2H
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
2
1
L
23.06.23
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
1
0
W
19.05.23
H2H
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
0
1
W
24.02.23
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
1
0
W
Last matches: St Patrick's Athl.
03.07.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Galway United
3
0
W
19.06.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Sligo Rovers
2
0
W
12.06.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Drogheda United
2
0
W
08.05.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
4
1
W
24.04.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Bohemians
3
1
W
10.04.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Shamrock Rovers
0
1
L
03.04.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Sligo Rovers
4
1
W
16.03.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Derry City
0
0
D
13.03.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Drogheda United
4
1
W
02.03.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Galway United
1
0
W
27.02.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
4
0
W
23.01.26
Fri
St Patrick's Athl.
Cork City
1
1
D
07.08.25
UEF
St Patrick's Athl.
Beşiktaş
1
4
L
24.07.25
UEF
St Patrick's Athl.
Kalju Nomme
1
0
W
10.07.25
UEF
St Patrick's Athl.
Hegelmann Litauen
1
0
W
H2H at home: St Patrick's Athl.
15.05.26
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
0
1
L
17.08.25
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
2
0
W
16.06.25
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
0
1
L
04.04.25
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
0
0
D
20.05.24
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
1
2
L
15.03.24
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
1
2
L
23.06.23
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
1
0
W
24.02.23
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
1
0
W
Last matches: Shelbourne
27.06.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Sligo Rovers
2
2
D
19.06.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Drogheda United
2
2
D
25.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Derry City
0
0
D
04.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Bohemians
2
2
D
01.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
1
W
06.04.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Shamrock Rovers
2
3
L
21.03.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Sligo Rovers
1
0
W
13.03.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Derry City
2
1
W
27.02.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Drogheda United
2
1
W
06.02.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Waterford
1
1
D
30.01.26
Fri
Shelbourne
Bray Wanderers
3
0
W
24.01.26
Fri
Shelbourne
Bohemians
2
2
D
18.12.25
UEF
Shelbourne
Celje
0
0
D
27.11.25
UEF
Shelbourne
AZ Alkmaar
0
2
L
23.10.25
UEF
Shelbourne
Shkendija
0
1
L
28.08.25
UEF
Shelbourne
Linfield
2
0
W
06.08.25
UEF
Shelbourne
HNK Rijeka
2
1
W
30.07.25
UEF
Shelbourne
Qarabag
0
1
L
16.07.25
UEF
Shelbourne
Linfield
1
1
D
H2H away: Shelbourne
15.05.26
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
0
1
W
17.08.25
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
2
0
L
16.06.25
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
0
1
W
04.04.25
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
0
0
D
20.05.24
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
1
2
W
15.03.24
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
1
2
W
23.06.23
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
1
0
L
24.02.23
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
1
0
L

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 15 5 5 40:22 18 50
W W D W L
2 25 12 7 6 40:27 13 43
W W W L L
3 24 12 6 6 39:20 19 42
D W L W W
4 24 9 8 7 38:36 2 35
L L L W W
5 24 8 10 6 35:35 0 34
W D L D W
6 25 6 11 8 32:31 1 29
L W D L W
7 23 7 6 10 32:39 -7 27
W L L W L
8 24 6 7 11 29:41 -12 25
W L L D L
9 24 4 9 11 33:47 -14 21
D W W L W
10 24 5 5 14 20:40 -20 20
L L D L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Premier Division (Relegation)
Relegation - Division 1