IRELAND PREMIER DIVISION
12.06.2026 18:45
Richmond Park
Referee: L. Keating
St Patrick's Athl.
Match Timeline
Drogheda United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
16'
Mark Doyle
Drogheda United
34'
K. Leavy
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
37'
K. Cruise ↔ C. Kane
Drogheda United
🟨
39'
Sean Hoare
St Patrick's Athl.
🟨
45+1'
Romal Palmer
St Patrick's Athl.
61'
Z. Elbouzedi · Assist: L. Turner
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
66'
E. O'Brien ↔ T. Oluwa
Drogheda United
🔄
66'
J. Godden ↔ J. Bucknor
Drogheda United
🔄
69'
Z. Elbouzedi ↔ A. Breslin
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
79'
R. Palmer ↔ D. Nugent
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
80'
A. Keena ↔ B. Baggley
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
84'
J. Lennon ↔ C. Forrester
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
84'
R. Edmondson ↔ M. A. Mata
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
88'
M. Doyle ↔ D. Kareem
Drogheda United

St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 70.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
70.1%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
79.5%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
St Patrick's Athl. Win 70.1%
Draw 5%
Drogheda United Win 25%
Expected Goals (xG)
St Patrick's Athl.1.64
Drogheda United1.16
Recent Form (Last 5)
St Patrick's Athl. St Patrick's Athl.
WWDLW
35 GF / 18 GA
Drogheda United Drogheda United
WLDWL
30 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.67
Average Goals Scored
1.36
0.86
Average Goals Conceded
1.59
9
BTTS Yes
16
9
Over 2.5
12
5.21
Shots on Goal
3.53

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

St Patrick's Athl. St Patrick's Athl. 21 matches
Drogheda United Drogheda United 22 matches
St Patrick's Athl. Statistic Drogheda United
10 Wins 6
6 Draws 8
5 Losses 8
35 Goals For 30
18 Goals Against 35
1.67 Avg Goals Scored 1.36
0.86 Avg Goals Conceded 1.59
9 BTTS Yes 16
14 Over 1.5 17
9 Over 2.5 12
8 Over 3.5 8
7 Clean Sheets 6
8 Failed To Score 2
5.21 Shots On Goal 3.53
16.11 Total Shots 9.79
5.32 Corners 3.89
53% Ball Possession 40.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around St Patrick's Athl.'s more proactive style and Drogheda United's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Drogheda United. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. St Patrick's Athl. arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 32 points compared to Drogheda United in 8 on 21, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

St Patrick's Athl. Analysis

Placed 3 with 32 points from 19 outings, St Patrick's Athl. continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 9 wins, 5 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 31:17 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through R. Edmondson (8 goals), K. Leavy (4 goals), A. Keena (3 goals), with creative support from K. Leavy (3 assists), Z. Elbouzedi (3 assists), J. Lennon (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Drogheda United Analysis

From their first 19 matches, Drogheda United have collected 21 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses, while the 25:32 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on M. Doyle (8 goals), Conor Keeley (3 goals), W. Davis (3 goals), with creative support from B. Kavanagh (4 assists), K. Cruise (2 assists), Conor Keeley (1 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, St Patrick's Athl. won 8 times, Drogheda United won 2 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:8 from St Patrick's Athl.'s perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 1.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95%)
Predicted formations: St Patrick's Athl. 4-2-3-1 / Drogheda United 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: St Patrick's Athl. wins 8, draws 5, Drogheda United wins 2

Standings

Premier Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 16 7 5 46:27 19 55
D W D W W
2 29 14 8 7 45:25 20 50
L W W D D
3 29 14 8 7 50:34 16 50
W W L D W
4 29 10 10 9 46:45 1 40
W L L D D
5 27 8 11 8 37:39 -2 35
D L L W D
6 29 7 13 9 41:40 1 34
D L W D L
7 28 8 10 10 36:42 -6 34
D W D D D
8 29 7 11 11 39:48 -9 32
W D W W D
9 29 6 10 13 33:48 -15 28
L L D D D
10 29 5 8 16 23:48 -25 23
L D L D D
Play-offs
Qualifying
Relegation Play-offs
Relegation