GERMANY › 2. BUNDESLIGA
03.05.2026 11:30
Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer
Referee: S. Storks
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Match Timeline
1. FC Nürnberg
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
13'
Noel Futkeu
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
⚽
13'
N. Futkeu
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
🟨
15'
Adam Markhiev
1. FC Nürnberg
⚽
45'
F. Gruber
1. FC Nürnberg
🟨
52'
Felix Klaus
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
🔄
58'
A. Grimaldi ↔ P. Scobel
1. FC Nürnberg
🔄
59'
F. Higl ↔ D. Arifi
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
🔄
75'
J. Dehm ↔ D. Srbeny
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
🔄
75'
R. Lubach ↔ R. Nzingoula
1. FC Nürnberg
🟨
76'
Javier Fernandez
1. FC Nürnberg
🔄
86'
B. Hrgota ↔ J. Consbruch
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
🔄
86'
P. Will ↔ S. Ltaief
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
🔄
88'
F. O. Becker ↔ T. Baack
1. FC Nürnberg
🔄
88'
J. Fernandez ↔ M. Soldic
1. FC Nürnberg
🟨
90'
Doni Arifi
SpVgg Greuther Fürth

SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 53%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 47.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 30.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
53%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
47.3%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
30.8%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win 38.9%
Draw 8.1%
1. FC Nürnberg Win 53%
Expected Goals (xG)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth1.38
1. FC Nürnberg1.61
Recent Form (Last 5)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth SpVgg Greuther Fürth
WWDLW
44 GF / 65 GA
1. FC Nürnberg 1. FC Nürnberg
WLDWL
40 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
1.42
Average Goals Scored
1.29
2.1
Average Goals Conceded
1.32
19
BTTS Yes
19
21
Over 2.5
16
3.97
Shots on Goal
4.42

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

SpVgg Greuther Fürth SpVgg Greuther Fürth 31 matches
1. FC Nürnberg 1. FC Nürnberg 31 matches
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Statistic 1. FC Nürnberg
9 Wins 11
6 Draws 8
16 Losses 12
44 Goals For 40
65 Goals Against 41
1.42 Avg Goals Scored 1.29
2.1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.32
19 BTTS Yes 19
26 Over 1.5 25
21 Over 2.5 16
13 Over 3.5 5
4 Clean Sheets 4
10 Failed To Score 9
3.97 Shots On Goal 4.42
11.32 Total Shots 12.45
4.19 Corners 5.1
47.5% Ball Possession 48.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors 1. FC Nürnberg. 1. FC Nürnberg carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 8 with 41 points while SpVgg Greuther Fürth sit 17 on 33, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and 1. FC Nürnberg in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward 1. FC Nürnberg having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. SpVgg Greuther Fürth have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth Analysis

With 33 points from 31 games and a place of 17, SpVgg Greuther Fürth still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 9 wins, 6 draws, and 16 losses, together with goals at 44:65, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through N. Futkeu (16 goals), F. Klaus (7 goals), B. Hrgota (4 goals), with creative support from B. Hrgota (9 assists), N. Futkeu (6 assists), F. Klaus (6 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

1. FC Nürnberg Analysis

So far, 1. FC Nürnberg have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 41 points from 31 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 11 wins, 8 draws, and 12 losses, while the 40:41 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on M. A. Zoma (11 goals), J. Justvan (7 goals), R. Lubach (6 goals), with creative support from J. Justvan (7 assists), Berkay Yılmaz (6 assists), M. A. Zoma (4 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 5 times, 1. FC Nürnberg won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:25 from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.9%)
Predicted formations: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-4-2-1 / 1. FC Nürnberg 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: SpVgg Greuther Fürth wins 5, draws 5, 1. FC Nürnberg wins 5

Standings

2. Bundesliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 21 7 6 50:31 19 70
W L W W W
2 34 18 8 8 64:39 25 62
W L W D W
3 34 18 8 8 59:45 14 62
W D L L D
4 34 16 12 6 60:44 16 60
D D D W D
5 34 13 13 8 57:45 12 52
L D L D L
6 34 16 4 14 52:47 5 52
W W L L L
7 34 14 9 11 47:44 3 51
L W L L D
8 34 12 10 12 47:45 2 46
D W D W D
9 34 11 11 12 49:47 2 44
W D D W L
10 34 12 8 14 53:64 -11 44
L D W L L
11 34 11 8 15 54:53 1 41
W L W L W
12 34 11 8 15 44:48 -4 41
L L W W W
13 34 10 9 15 53:51 2 39
W L D W D
14 34 12 3 19 52:58 -6 39
L W W L W
15 34 10 7 17 36:54 -18 37
L W L W D
16 34 10 7 17 49:68 -19 37
W L D L W
17 34 11 4 19 33:53 -20 37
L W L W L
18 34 6 12 16 38:61 -23 30
L D D L L
Promotion - Bundesliga
Promotion - Bundesliga (Promotion)
2. Bundesliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 3. Liga