24.05.2026 20:00
Estadio Ameliano Villeta
Referee: A. Colman
Sportivo Ameliano
Match Timeline
Sportivo Trinidense
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
20'
A. Paredes
Sportivo Ameliano
⚽
25'
F. Romero
Sportivo Trinidense
🟨
37'
Raúl Cabral
Sportivo Ameliano
🔄
46'
S. Aranda ↔ C. Favero
Sportivo Ameliano
🔄
46'
N. Gauto ↔ L. De la Cruz
Sportivo Trinidense
🔄
46'
S. Mendoza ↔ D. Melgarejo
Sportivo Trinidense
🔄
46'
N. Mana ↔ T. Rayer
Sportivo Trinidense
⚽
47'
L. De la Cruz · Assist: F. Romero
Sportivo Trinidense
🟨
53'
Cristhian Ocampos
Sportivo Ameliano
🟨
59'
Luis de la Cruz
Sportivo Trinidense
🟨
73'
Alan Tobías Morinigo
Sportivo Trinidense
🔄
76'
A. Morinigo ↔ P. Zarza
Sportivo Trinidense
🔄
78'
L. Ayala ↔ F. Vera
Sportivo Ameliano
⚽
90'
Raúl Cabral
Sportivo Ameliano
🟨
90+7'
Tomas Rayer
Sportivo Trinidense
🔄
90+4'
V. Larralde ↔ A. Avalos
Sportivo Ameliano
🔄
90+2'
F. Romero ↔ N. Camacho
Sportivo Trinidense

Sportivo Ameliano vs Sportivo Trinidense Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 84.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 94.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
84.9%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
94.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
68.8%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Sportivo Ameliano Win 84.9%
Draw 0%
Sportivo Trinidense Win 15.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sportivo Ameliano1.18
Sportivo Trinidense1.16
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano
WWDLW
26 GF / 19 GA
Sportivo Trinidense Sportivo Trinidense
WLDWL
28 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
1.24
Average Goals Scored
1.33
0.9
Average Goals Conceded
1.1
12
BTTS Yes
15
7
Over 2.5
10
3.43
Shots on Goal
4.14

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano 21 matches
Sportivo Trinidense Sportivo Trinidense 21 matches
Sportivo Ameliano Statistic Sportivo Trinidense
8 Wins 7
9 Draws 8
4 Losses 6
26 Goals For 28
19 Goals Against 23
1.24 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
0.9 Avg Goals Conceded 1.1
12 BTTS Yes 15
14 Over 1.5 16
7 Over 2.5 10
3 Over 3.5 4
5 Clean Sheets 5
5 Failed To Score 3
3.43 Shots On Goal 4.14
11.24 Total Shots 11.38
3.95 Corners 4
49% Ball Possession 39.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sportivo Ameliano expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Sportivo Trinidense in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sportivo Trinidense having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Sportivo Trinidense arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Sportivo Trinidense. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Sportivo Ameliano Analysis

Sportivo Ameliano arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 33 points after 21 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 9 draws, and 4 losses, while the 26:19 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on E. Vera (9 goals), A. Falabella (3 goals), C. Ocampos (3 goals), with creative support from R. Cabral (4 assists), A. Paredes (2 assists), E. Vera (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Sportivo Trinidense Analysis

Sportivo Trinidense sit 6 with 29 points after 21 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 7 wins, 8 draws, and 6 defeats with a 28:23 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on N. Camacho (7 goals), F. Romero (6 goals), C. Gonzalez (3 goals), with creative support from Alan Tobías Morinigo (2 assists), N. Camacho (1 assists), C. Gonzalez (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses points to a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Sportivo Ameliano won 4 times, Sportivo Trinidense won 9 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:21 from Sportivo Ameliano's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Sportivo Ameliano 4-1-4-1 / Sportivo Trinidense 4-4-2
H2H summary: Sportivo Ameliano wins 4, draws 2, Sportivo Trinidense wins 9

Standings

Primera Division: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 15 4 3 37:17 20 49
W W L D L
2 22 10 9 3 31:22 9 39
W D W W W
3 22 11 5 6 30:22 8 38
W L D L D
4 22 8 9 5 27:21 6 33
L L W D D
5 22 8 8 6 30:24 6 32
W W L L L
6 22 9 4 9 34:26 8 31
L D W W W
7 22 7 8 7 27:23 4 29
L W D L D
8 22 8 4 10 35:32 3 28
W L L W L
9 22 6 5 11 15:26 -11 23
L D L D W
10 22 5 7 10 18:35 -17 22
L D W W D
11 22 5 5 12 24:33 -9 20
L D L D W
12 22 3 6 13 14:41 -27 15
W D W L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)