11.09.2026 19:00
Estadio Arsenio Erico
Referee: C. Benitez
Sportivo Ameliano
Match Timeline
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
5'
Ronald David Peralta Chavez
Sportivo Ameliano
🟨
26'
Gastón Gerzel
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🔄
58'
Kevin Ferreira Gonzalez ↔ Elias Ortiz
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🔄
62'
Ronald David Peralta Chavez ↔ Estivel Moreira
Sportivo Ameliano
🔄
62'
Valentin Larralde ↔ Pablo Ezequiel Aranda
Sportivo Ameliano
🔄
68'
Edgar Paez ↔ Luis Ortiz
Sportivo Ameliano
🔄
73'
R. Amarilla ↔ Bruno Ariel Machuca
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🔄
74'
Franco Aragón ↔ Bruno Pinatares Prieto
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🔄
74'
Luis María Ayala Bentos ↔ Fredy Vera
Sportivo Ameliano
🔄
74'
Raul Ignacio Cabral ↔ R. Torales
Sportivo Ameliano
VAR
80'
Estivel Moreira
Sportivo Ameliano
🟨
84'
Luis Cáceres
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
85'
Cristhian·Ocampos
Sportivo Ameliano
🔄
88'
Gastón Gerzel ↔ J Duarte
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🔄
88'
Carlos Daniel Meza Montiel ↔ Santiago Salcedo
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🟨
90+4'
A. Paredes
Sportivo Ameliano
🟨
90+5'
Elias Ortiz
Club Sp. San Lorenzo

Sportivo Ameliano vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 85.3%
Odds 1.61
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.95
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
85.3%
1.61
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.83
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.95
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
84.2%
1.23
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.50
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Sportivo Ameliano Win 85.3%
Draw 7.4%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo Win 7.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sportivo Ameliano1.49
Club Sp. San Lorenzo0.74
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano
WWDLW
38 GF / 32 GA
Club Sp. San Lorenzo Club Sp. San Lorenzo
WLDWL
17 GF / 58 GA
Key Stats
1.23
Average Goals Scored
0.55
1.03
Average Goals Conceded
1.87
20
BTTS Yes
12
12
Over 2.5
12
3.71
Shots on Goal
1.45

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano 31 matches
Club Sp. San Lorenzo Club Sp. San Lorenzo 31 matches
Sportivo Ameliano Statistic Club Sp. San Lorenzo
11 Wins 3
13 Draws 7
7 Losses 21
38 Goals For 17
32 Goals Against 58
1.23 Avg Goals Scored 0.55
1.03 Avg Goals Conceded 1.87
20 BTTS Yes 12
23 Over 1.5 20
12 Over 2.5 12
4 Over 3.5 6
6 Clean Sheets 5
6 Failed To Score 16
3.71 Shots On Goal 1.45
11.65 Total Shots 6.13
3.97 Corners 2.55
50.6% Ball Possession 24.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sportivo Ameliano expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Club Sp. San Lorenzo in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Club Sp. San Lorenzo having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Club Sp. San Lorenzo arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Club Sp. San Lorenzo. Sportivo Ameliano arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 6 with 13 points compared to Club Sp. San Lorenzo in 12 on 1, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Sportivo Ameliano Analysis

Sportivo Ameliano sit 6 with 13 points after 9 league matches. Their overall return of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 11:11 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by C. Ocampos (3 goals), E. Moreira (2 goals), R. Cabral (1 goals), with creative support from E. Torales (2 assists), J. González (1 assists), Fabián Franco (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Club Sp. San Lorenzo Analysis

Club Sp. San Lorenzo approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 12 with 1 points from 9 matches. Across the season they have posted 0 wins, 1 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 3:17 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on F. Aragón (1 goals), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Sportivo Ameliano won 3 times, Club Sp. San Lorenzo won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:3 from Sportivo Ameliano's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2.25 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (92.6%)
Predicted formations: Sportivo Ameliano 4-2-3-1 / Club Sp. San Lorenzo 4-4-2
H2H summary: Sportivo Ameliano wins 3, draws 0, Club Sp. San Lorenzo wins 1

Standings

Primera Division: Clausura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 7 2 2 19:12 7 23
D W W L D
2 11 7 1 3 20:9 11 22
W W W D W
3 11 6 3 2 18:6 12 21
W W L W W
4 11 6 3 2 12:11 1 21
L L W D W
5 11 5 2 4 18:10 8 17
L W L W L
6 11 4 5 2 12:9 3 17
W D W D D
7 11 4 5 2 13:12 1 17
D W W L D
8 11 5 2 4 14:10 4 17
W D W W D
9 11 4 1 6 12:20 -8 13
W L L D W
10 11 2 2 7 11:21 -10 8
L L L W L
11 11 2 1 8 13:24 -11 7
L L L L L
12 11 0 1 10 3:21 -18 1
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)