🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
20.09.2026 00:30
Children's Mercy Park

Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 55.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
55.9%
-
BTTS Yes
75.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Sporting Kansas City Win 30%
Draw 14.1%
Philadelphia Union Win 55.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sporting Kansas City1.18
Philadelphia Union2.07
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City
WWDLW
31 GF / 65 GA
Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union
WLDWL
68 GF / 48 GA
Key Stats
1.03
Average Goals Scored
2
2.17
Average Goals Conceded
1.41
16
BTTS Yes
20
21
Over 2.5
21
4
Shots on Goal
5.07

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 30 matches
Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 34 matches
Sporting Kansas City Statistic Philadelphia Union
8 Wins 13
3 Draws 8
19 Losses 13
31 Goals For 68
65 Goals Against 48
1.03 Avg Goals Scored 2
2.17 Avg Goals Conceded 1.41
16 BTTS Yes 20
26 Over 1.5 28
21 Over 2.5 21
11 Over 3.5 14
2 Clean Sheets 10
12 Failed To Score 6
4 Shots On Goal 5.07
10.5 Total Shots 16.17
3.92 Corners 6.03
44.5% Ball Possession 48.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Philadelphia Union's more proactive style and Sporting Kansas City's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Philadelphia Union. Philadelphia Union carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 8 with 30 points while Sporting Kansas City sit 15 on 15, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Sporting Kansas City have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Sporting Kansas City Analysis

Sporting Kansas City approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 15 points from 23 matches. Their record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 16 losses, together with goals at 23:58, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through D. Joveljić (6 goals), T. Calheira (3 goals), Manu García (2 goals), with creative support from Manu García (3 assists), C. Harris (2 assists), D. Joveljić (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Philadelphia Union Analysis

From their first 24 matches, Philadelphia Union have collected 30 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Their overall return of 8 wins, 6 draws, and 10 losses with goals at 41:39 reflects good form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking weight is carried by M. Iloski (10 goals), B. Damiani (6 goals), Cavan Sullivan (3 goals), with creative support from Cavan Sullivan (4 assists), F. Westfield (3 assists), B. Damiani (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Sporting Kansas City won 4 times, Philadelphia Union won 5 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:21 from Sporting Kansas City's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.9%)
Predicted formations: Sporting Kansas City 4-4-2 / Philadelphia Union 4-4-2
H2H summary: Sporting Kansas City wins 4, draws 6, Philadelphia Union wins 5

Standings

Western Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 14 4 6 53:23 30 46
L W L W W
2 25 13 4 8 32:28 4 43
L W D D L
3 25 12 7 6 49:42 7 43
W W W D L
4 25 12 5 8 44:36 8 41
W W D D L
5 25 11 8 6 42:35 7 41
W D W D W
6 26 11 7 8 41:27 14 40
L W D D D
7 25 11 2 12 33:32 1 35
W D L W L
8 25 9 5 11 47:47 0 32
L D W L D
9 24 8 6 10 42:37 5 30
L L W W L
10 26 7 9 10 31:40 -9 30
D L W L D
11 24 8 5 11 37:39 -2 29
L L D L L
12 25 7 8 10 37:43 -6 29
L L L D W
13 25 7 8 10 32:44 -12 29
W D D W D
14 23 7 7 9 25:30 -5 28
D D D D L
15 24 5 3 16 26:59 -33 18
W L L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)