🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
23.07.2026 00:30
Children's Mercy Park
Referee: Mathew Corrigan, USA
Sporting Kansas City
Match Timeline
Minnesota United FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
21'
Kyle Duncan
Minnesota United FC
28'
D. Joveljic · Assist: Capita
Sporting Kansas City
🟨
45+2'
Capita
Sporting Kansas City
54'
M. Garcia · Assist: J. Davis
Sporting Kansas City
🟨
56'
Joaquín Pereyra
Minnesota United FC
🔄
64'
K. Duncan ↔ B. Hlongwane
Minnesota United FC
🔄
64'
K. Yeboah ↔ M. Dieng
Minnesota United FC
🔄
72'
Capita ↔ S. Afrifa
Sporting Kansas City
🔄
72'
M. Garcia ↔ K. Agyabeng
Sporting Kansas City
🟨
74'
Dejan Joveljić
Sporting Kansas City
🔄
75'
D. Padelford ↔ J. Diaz
Minnesota United FC
🔄
75'
O. Gene ↔ M. Gonzalez
Minnesota United FC
75'
D. Padelford · Assist: J. Pereyra
Minnesota United FC
🔄
79'
E. Karic ↔ J. Reid
Sporting Kansas City
🔄
79'
Z. Bassong ↔ J. Bartlett
Sporting Kansas City
🟨
84'
Bongokuhle Hlongwane
Minnesota United FC
🔄
85'
T. Chancalay ↔ J. Gressel
Minnesota United FC

Sporting Kansas City vs Minnesota United FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 73.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
73.9%
-
BTTS Yes
86%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Sporting Kansas City Win 21.5%
Draw 4.6%
Minnesota United FC Win 73.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sporting Kansas City1.13
Minnesota United FC1.59
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City
WWDLW
21 GF / 45 GA
Minnesota United FC Minnesota United FC
WLDWL
22 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.22
2.14
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
11
BTTS Yes
9
15
Over 2.5
10
3.93
Shots on Goal
4.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 21 matches
Minnesota United FC Minnesota United FC 18 matches
Sporting Kansas City Statistic Minnesota United FC
6 Wins 7
2 Draws 5
13 Losses 6
21 Goals For 22
45 Goals Against 24
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.22
2.14 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
11 BTTS Yes 9
17 Over 1.5 12
15 Over 2.5 10
8 Over 3.5 5
2 Clean Sheets 6
8 Failed To Score 5
3.93 Shots On Goal 4.33
9.47 Total Shots 13.27
3.8 Corners 5.27
44.9% Ball Possession 46.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Minnesota United FC. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Minnesota United FC carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 8 with 22 points while Sporting Kansas City sit 15 on 11, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sporting Kansas City expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Minnesota United FC in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Minnesota United FC having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Sporting Kansas City Analysis

With 11 points from 14 games and a place of 15, Sporting Kansas City still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 14:36, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through D. Joveljic (6 goals), C. Harris (2 goals), Capita (1 goals), with creative support from C. Harris (3 assists), M. Garcia (3 assists), S. Afrifa (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Minnesota United FC Analysis

So far, Minnesota United FC have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 22 points from 15 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, while the 18:22 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on K. Yeboah (8 goals), Anthony Markanich (4 goals), J. Pereyra (1 goals), with creative support from J. Pereyra (5 assists), T. Chancalay (3 assists), J. Rodriguez (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Sporting Kansas City won 6 times, Minnesota United FC won 6 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:22 from Sporting Kansas City's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.07 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.4%)
Predicted formations: Sporting Kansas City 4-4-2 / Minnesota United FC 3-4-3
Missing players: Sporting Kansas City 4, Minnesota United FC 7
H2H summary: Sporting Kansas City wins 6, draws 3, Minnesota United FC wins 6

Standings

Western Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 14 4 6 53:23 30 46
L W L W W
2 25 13 4 8 32:28 4 43
L W D D L
3 25 12 7 6 49:42 7 43
W W W D L
4 25 12 5 8 44:36 8 41
W W D D L
5 25 11 8 6 42:35 7 41
W D W D W
6 26 11 7 8 41:27 14 40
L W D D D
7 25 11 2 12 33:32 1 35
W D L W L
8 25 9 5 11 47:47 0 32
L D W L D
9 24 8 6 10 42:37 5 30
L L W W L
10 26 7 9 10 31:40 -9 30
D L W L D
11 24 8 5 11 37:39 -2 29
L L D L L
12 25 7 8 10 37:43 -6 29
L L L D W
13 25 7 8 10 32:44 -12 29
W D D W D
14 23 7 7 9 25:30 -5 28
D D D D L
15 24 5 3 16 26:59 -33 18
W L L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)