🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
--.--.---- --:--
Children's Mercy Park
Referee: S. Boiko
Sporting Kansas City
Match Timeline
Houston Dynamo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
11'
L. Johnsen
Sporting Kansas City
🟨
45'
L. Johnsen
Sporting Kansas City
🟥
45'
L. Johnsen
Sporting Kansas City
55'
Guilherme · Assist: J. McGlynn
Houston Dynamo
🔄
65'
K. Agyabeng ↔ M. Garcia
Sporting Kansas City
🔄
65'
E. Ponce ↔ D. McGuire
Houston Dynamo
🔄
65'
M. Mosquera ↔ W. Meyer
Sporting Kansas City
🔄
65'
J. Davis ↔ J. Reid
Sporting Kansas City
71'
A. Bouzat
Houston Dynamo
🔄
82'
Capita ↔ S. Suleymanov
Sporting Kansas City
🔄
82'
Felipe Andrade ↔ D. Holmes
Houston Dynamo
🔄
82'
A. Bouzat ↔ F. Negri
Houston Dynamo
🔄
85'
Z. Bassong ↔ J. Bartlett
Sporting Kansas City
🟨
86'
Lucas Halter
Houston Dynamo
🔄
90'
Guilherme ↔ O. Lingr
Houston Dynamo
🔄
90'
H. Herrera ↔ D. Samassekou
Houston Dynamo

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 49.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
49.6%
-
BTTS Yes
78.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
78%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Sporting Kansas City Win 35.2%
Draw 15.2%
Houston Dynamo Win 49.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sporting Kansas City1.14
Houston Dynamo1.92
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City
WWDLW
23 GF / 50 GA
Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo
WLDWL
44 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.76
2.17
Average Goals Conceded
1.36
12
BTTS Yes
14
17
Over 2.5
13
3.94
Shots on Goal
4.81

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 23 matches
Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 25 matches
Sporting Kansas City Statistic Houston Dynamo
7 Wins 15
2 Draws 4
14 Losses 6
23 Goals For 44
50 Goals Against 34
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.76
2.17 Avg Goals Conceded 1.36
12 BTTS Yes 14
19 Over 1.5 20
17 Over 2.5 13
9 Over 3.5 7
2 Clean Sheets 7
9 Failed To Score 4
3.94 Shots On Goal 4.81
9.35 Total Shots 13.38
3.59 Corners 4.19
44.8% Ball Possession 44.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sporting Kansas City expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Houston Dynamo in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Houston Dynamo having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Houston Dynamo carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 7 with 23 points while Sporting Kansas City sit 15 on 14, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Houston Dynamo. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Sporting Kansas City Analysis

Sporting Kansas City approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 14 points from 16 matches. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 2 draws, and 10 defeats, and the 18:40 goal record continues to suggest good form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Dejan Joveljić (4 goals), Manu García (2 goals), Calvin Harris (2 goals), with creative support from Manu García (3 assists), Calvin Harris (2 assists), Dejan Joveljić (1 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Houston Dynamo Analysis

Houston Dynamo sit 7 with 23 points after 15 league matches. The record of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 20:24 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Guilherme (4 goals), Lawrence Ennali (2 goals), Jack McGlynn (2 goals), with creative support from Lawrence Ennali (2 assists), Guilherme (1 assists), Jack McGlynn (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Sporting Kansas City won 6 times, Houston Dynamo won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:17 from Sporting Kansas City's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.8%)
Predicted formations: Sporting Kansas City 4-2-3-1 / Houston Dynamo 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Sporting Kansas City wins 6, draws 4, Houston Dynamo wins 5

Standings

Western Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 13 4 4 48:18 30 43
W W L W D
2 22 12 3 7 30:26 4 39
D L W W W
3 23 10 6 7 36:22 14 36
D D L L D
4 22 10 4 8 39:33 6 34
D L L L L
5 22 9 7 6 41:37 4 34
D L W W D
6 22 9 7 6 33:30 3 34
D W D W D
7 22 10 1 11 31:28 3 31
W L W W W
8 22 8 6 8 40:33 7 30
W W L W D
9 22 7 8 7 30:32 -2 29
D W L D D
10 21 8 4 9 34:33 1 28
L L L D D
11 22 8 4 10 39:39 0 28
L D W L W
12 21 7 5 9 24:29 -5 26
D D L L L
13 23 6 8 9 28:35 -7 26
L D W L D
14 22 6 6 10 28:41 -13 24
W D W L L
15 22 4 3 15 20:54 -34 15
L L D L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)