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🇺🇸 USA › MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
25.10.2026 00:30
Children's Mercy Park

Sporting Kansas City vs Austin Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 66.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
66.2%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Sporting Kansas City Win 28.3%
Draw 5.5%
Austin Win 66.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sporting Kansas City1.36
Austin1.61
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City
WWDLW
41 GF / 81 GA
Austin Austin
WLDWL
45 GF / 64 GA
Key Stats
1.14
Average Goals Scored
1.18
2.25
Average Goals Conceded
1.68
20
BTTS Yes
22
26
Over 2.5
23
4.2
Shots on Goal
4.07

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 36 matches
Austin Austin 38 matches
Sporting Kansas City Statistic Austin
9 Wins 9
4 Draws 12
23 Losses 17
41 Goals For 45
81 Goals Against 64
1.14 Avg Goals Scored 1.18
2.25 Avg Goals Conceded 1.68
20 BTTS Yes 22
32 Over 1.5 30
26 Over 2.5 23
15 Over 3.5 13
3 Clean Sheets 8
13 Failed To Score 11
4.2 Shots On Goal 4.07
10.77 Total Shots 10.7
4.1 Corners 4.47
44.1% Ball Possession 48.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Sporting Kansas City have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sporting Kansas City expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Austin in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Austin having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Austin. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Sporting Kansas City Analysis

Sporting Kansas City sit 15 with 22 points after 29 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 19 defeats with a 35:72 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on D. Joveljić (8 goals), André Luiz (7 goals), T. Calheira (4 goals), with creative support from C. Harris (3 assists), Manu García (3 assists), André Luiz (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Austin Analysis

Austin approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 31 points from 29 matches. The overall return of 7 wins, 10 draws, and 12 defeats with a 37:54 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on C. Ramirez (8 goals), M. Uzuni (5 goals), F. Torres (4 goals), with creative support from F. Torres (4 assists), R. Taylor (3 assists), J. Rosales (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Sporting Kansas City won 5 times, Austin won 7 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:21 from Sporting Kansas City's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.23 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.5%)
Predicted formations: Sporting Kansas City 4-4-2 / Austin 3-4-3
H2H summary: Sporting Kansas City wins 5, draws 1, Austin wins 7

Standings

Western Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 16 7 7 63:31 32 55
W D D L D
2 30 14 9 7 56:41 15 51
L D W W W
3 30 14 9 7 55:47 8 51
D W L W D
4 30 13 9 8 52:42 10 48
D D D W D
5 30 13 8 9 41:39 2 47
D D D L D
6 31 12 10 9 48:33 15 46
D W D L D
7 30 11 9 10 39:37 2 42
D L W W W
8 31 10 10 11 43:52 -9 40
D W L W W
9 30 11 6 13 41:41 0 39
D D D L D
10 30 10 6 14 45:48 -3 36
W D L W L
11 30 9 7 14 51:56 -5 34
D L D L L
12 30 8 10 12 53:56 -3 34
D D L D D
13 30 8 10 12 47:55 -8 34
W D D L L
14 30 7 10 13 38:56 -18 31
L L L D D
15 30 6 4 20 36:75 -39 22
L L D L W
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)