04.10.2026 14:15
El Molinón-Enrique Castro Quini
Referee: German Cid Camacho
Sporting Gijon
Live Timeline
Celta de Vigo II
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
8'
Óscar Marcos
Celta de Vigo II
🟨
25'
Andres Cuenca
Sporting Gijon
⚽
33'
Antonio Manuel Casas Marin
Sporting Gijon
🔄
45'
Antonio Manuel Casas Marin ↔ Alejo Sarco
Sporting Gijon
🔄
45'
Andres Cuenca ↔ Diego Sánchez
Sporting Gijon
🔄
45'
Pablo García ↔ Iker Martinez Martinez
Sporting Gijon
⚽
45+11'
Antonio Manuel Casas Marin
Sporting Gijon
🟥
45+9'
Pablo González Meixús
Celta de Vigo II
VAR
45+8'
Pablo González Meixús
Celta de Vigo II
🟨
50'
Anxo Rodríguez Álvarez
Celta de Vigo II
🟨
57'
Alejo Sarco
Sporting Gijon
🔄
58'
Enol Prendes Ortiz ↔ Diego Matabuena Álvarez
Sporting Gijon
⚽
60'
Guillermo Rosas · Assist: Diego Matabuena Álvarez
Sporting Gijon
🔄
61'
Anxo Rodríguez Álvarez ↔ Ángel Arcos
Celta de Vigo II
🔄
61'
Frank Germain Jonathan Miller ↔ Vladimir Henrique Silva
Celta de Vigo II
🟨
69'
Manuel Rodríguez Paz
Sporting Gijon
🔄
75'
Gaspar Campos ↔ Miguel Conde
Sporting Gijon
🟨
77'
Diego Matabuena Álvarez
Sporting Gijon

Sporting Gijon vs Celta de Vigo II Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 52%
Odds 5.08
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds 1.91
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
52%
5.08 ▥
BTTS No
50.8%
1.83 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
1.91 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
75.4%
1.30 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
12.00 ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
15.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Sporting Gijon Win 36.6%
Draw 11.4%
Celta de Vigo II Win 52%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sporting Gijon1.28
Celta de Vigo II1.2
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon
WWDLW
15 GF / 16 GA
Celta de Vigo II Celta de Vigo II
WLDWL
10 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1.25
Average Goals Scored
1.11
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
4
BTTS Yes
4
5
Over 2.5
3
3.71
Shots on Goal
4.43

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 12 matches
Celta de Vigo II Celta de Vigo II 9 matches
Sporting Gijon Statistic Celta de Vigo II
5 Wins 3
1 Draws 3
6 Losses 3
15 Goals For 10
16 Goals Against 12
1.25 Avg Goals Scored 1.11
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
4 BTTS Yes 4
7 Over 1.5 7
5 Over 2.5 3
4 Over 3.5 2
4 Clean Sheets 3
5 Failed To Score 3
3.71 Shots On Goal 4.43
10.43 Total Shots 11.71
3.14 Corners 3.71
50.7% Ball Possession 48.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Sporting Gijon's more proactive style and Celta de Vigo II's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Celta de Vigo II. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Celta de Vigo II arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sporting Gijon expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Celta de Vigo II in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Celta de Vigo II having the stronger overall control.

Sporting Gijon Analysis

Sporting Gijon are currently 10 in the standings with 10 points from 6 matches. The record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 5:4 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through J. Otero (1 goals), N. Iosifov (1 goals), Aimar Duñabeitia (1 goals), with creative support from J. Otero (1 assists), Álex Corredera (1 assists), Andrés Cuenca (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Celta de Vigo II Analysis

With 8 points from 7 games and a place of 15, Celta de Vigo II still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 8:11 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Marin (3 goals), Adrià Capdevila (1 goals), O. Marcos (1 goals), with creative support from G. Miller (2 assists), A. Rodriguez (1 assists), K. Ribes (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.6%)
Predicted formations: Sporting Gijon 4-4-2 / Celta de Vigo II 3-4-3

Standings

Segunda
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 7 0 1 18:7 11 21
W W W W W
2 7 6 1 0 14:2 12 19
W W W W W
3 8 6 0 2 13:5 8 18
W W W W W
4 8 4 2 2 12:9 3 14
L W W W D
5 7 4 1 2 14:8 6 13
W W L W W
6 7 4 1 2 8:3 5 13
L W W D W
7 7 3 3 1 8:6 2 12
D W L W W
8 8 3 2 3 8:8 0 11
L W L W D
9 7 3 2 2 8:9 -1 11
D L W D L
10 8 3 2 3 6:11 -5 11
L L W L D
11 7 3 1 3 10:11 -1 10
L L W D L
12 7 3 1 3 5:6 -1 10
L W L L W
13 7 2 2 3 10:11 -1 8
L L D L W
14 7 2 2 3 9:10 -1 8
L L W D D
15 8 2 2 4 8:10 -2 8
W L L W D
16 7 2 2 3 8:11 -3 8
D L L W L
17 7 2 2 3 6:9 -3 8
W D L W D
18 8 1 4 3 11:10 1 7
W D L L L
19 7 2 0 5 12:15 -3 6
W L L L L
20 7 2 0 5 10:16 -6 6
L W L L L
21 7 1 1 5 6:17 -11 4
W D L L L
22 8 0 1 7 5:15 -10 1
L L L D L
Promotion - LaLiga
Promotion - LaLiga2 (Promotion - Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation