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17.10.2026 16:00
Estadio Alberto Gallardo

Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 76%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
76%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Sporting Cristal Win 76%
Draw 3.8%
Comerciantes Unidos Win 20.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sporting Cristal1.52
Comerciantes Unidos1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal
WWDLW
61 GF / 54 GA
Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos
WLDWL
36 GF / 40 GA
Key Stats
1.61
Average Goals Scored
1.24
1.42
Average Goals Conceded
1.38
25
BTTS Yes
18
24
Over 2.5
14
4.84
Shots on Goal
4.41

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 38 matches
Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos 29 matches
Sporting Cristal Statistic Comerciantes Unidos
15 Wins 7
7 Draws 10
16 Losses 12
61 Goals For 36
54 Goals Against 40
1.61 Avg Goals Scored 1.24
1.42 Avg Goals Conceded 1.38
25 BTTS Yes 18
32 Over 1.5 19
24 Over 2.5 14
15 Over 3.5 11
9 Clean Sheets 5
5 Failed To Score 8
4.84 Shots On Goal 4.41
13.95 Total Shots 13.07
5.57 Corners 3.48
55.8% Ball Possession 47.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Sporting Cristal's more proactive style and Comerciantes Unidos's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Comerciantes Unidos arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Comerciantes Unidos. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Sporting Cristal Analysis

From their first 27 matches, Sporting Cristal have collected 38 points and now occupy 9 place in the table. The record of 11 wins, 5 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 48:40 goal balance, points toward good form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking threat comes through Y. Yotún (5 goals), M. Hoyos (4 goals), S. González (3 goals), with creative support from Y. Yotún (9 assists), S. González (5 assists), M. Hoyos (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Comerciantes Unidos Analysis

Comerciantes Unidos approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 30 points from 27 matches. The overall return of 7 wins, 9 draws, and 11 defeats with a 35:38 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on M. Sen (5 goals), Rodrigo Gary Vilca Betetta (3 goals), Josuee Herrera (2 goals), with creative support from Rodrigo Gary Vilca Betetta (4 assists), Josuee Herrera (3 assists), J. Olivares (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points to an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Sporting Cristal won 7 times, Comerciantes Unidos won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:14 from Sporting Cristal's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.2%)
Predicted formations: Sporting Cristal 4-2-3-1 / Comerciantes Unidos 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Sporting Cristal wins 7, draws 3, Comerciantes Unidos wins 3

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 16 8 3 44:18 26 56
W L D L D
2 27 14 7 6 43:31 12 49
L W D W W
3 27 14 6 7 39:24 15 48
W L W W W
4 27 13 7 7 45:29 16 46
D W W L D
5 27 14 3 10 40:38 2 45
W L W W L
6 28 13 5 10 48:40 8 44
W D L W L
7 28 12 7 9 36:45 -9 43
D D L L L
8 27 11 7 9 40:35 5 40
W L W W W
9 27 11 5 11 48:40 8 38
W W W L L
10 27 10 8 9 29:26 3 38
D W L W W
11 27 10 5 12 37:44 -7 35
W W W W L
12 27 9 7 11 42:52 -10 34
W W D W W
13 28 9 6 13 26:31 -5 33
D L W L W
14 27 7 9 11 35:38 -3 30
L L D L W
15 27 7 6 14 41:52 -11 27
L W L W L
16 27 6 7 14 29:42 -13 25
W L L L L
17 28 6 7 15 24:43 -19 25
L L L L L
18 27 4 8 15 32:50 -18 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2