19.09.2026 20:30
Estadio Alberto Gallardo

Sporting Cristal vs Atletico Grau Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
77.2%
-
BTTS Yes
75%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
84.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Sporting Cristal Win 77.2%
Draw 4.1%
Atletico Grau Win 18.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sporting Cristal1.37
Atletico Grau1.15
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal
WWDLW
58 GF / 53 GA
Atletico Grau Atletico Grau
WLDWL
25 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
1.57
Average Goals Scored
0.96
1.43
Average Goals Conceded
1.08
24
BTTS Yes
9
23
Over 2.5
9
4.67
Shots on Goal
3.96

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 37 matches
Atletico Grau Atletico Grau 26 matches
Sporting Cristal Statistic Atletico Grau
14 Wins 9
7 Draws 5
16 Losses 12
58 Goals For 25
53 Goals Against 28
1.57 Avg Goals Scored 0.96
1.43 Avg Goals Conceded 1.08
24 BTTS Yes 9
31 Over 1.5 12
23 Over 2.5 9
14 Over 3.5 7
9 Clean Sheets 9
5 Failed To Score 12
4.67 Shots On Goal 3.96
13.89 Total Shots 11.46
5.47 Corners 3.92
55.9% Ball Possession 45.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with Sporting Cristal's more proactive style and Atletico Grau's more cautious structure suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Atletico Grau. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Sporting Cristal Analysis

Sporting Cristal are currently 10 in the standings with 32 points from 25 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 9 wins, 5 draws, and 11 losses, while the 43:38 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Y. Yotún (5 goals), M. Hoyos (3 goals), Gustavo Cazonatti (3 goals), with creative support from Y. Yotún (7 assists), S. González (3 assists), M. Hoyos (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, their split return of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Atletico Grau Analysis

Atletico Grau sit 13 with 29 points after 25 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 5 draws, and 12 losses, while the 22:27 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on A. Fernández (3 goals), R. Ruidíaz (2 goals), R. Guarderas (1 goals), with creative support from R. Guarderas (2 assists), P. de la Cruz (2 assists), R. Ruidíaz (1 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Sporting Cristal won 8 times, Atletico Grau won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:17 from Sporting Cristal's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.15 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.9%)
Predicted formations: Sporting Cristal 4-2-3-1 / Atletico Grau 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Sporting Cristal wins 8, draws 2, Atletico Grau wins 3

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 15 8 3 42:18 24 53
L D L D W
2 26 14 7 5 43:27 16 49
W D W W W
3 26 13 6 7 44:28 16 45
W W L D W
4 26 13 6 7 35:24 11 45
L W W W D
5 26 13 3 10 38:37 1 42
L W W L W
6 26 12 5 9 35:44 -9 41
L L L L L
7 25 12 4 9 44:37 7 40
W L L D L
8 26 10 7 9 38:34 4 37
L W W W D
9 26 10 7 9 28:25 3 37
W L W W D
10 26 10 5 11 45:39 6 35
W W L L W
11 26 9 5 12 25:28 -3 32
W L W W W
12 26 9 5 12 34:42 -8 32
W W W L L
13 26 8 7 11 38:52 -14 31
W D W W L
14 26 7 9 10 34:36 -2 30
L D L W L
15 26 7 6 13 40:50 -10 27
W L W L L
16 26 6 7 13 24:37 -13 25
L L L W D
17 25 5 7 13 27:39 -12 22
L L L D D
18 26 4 8 14 30:47 -17 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2