PORTUGAL PRIMEIRA LIGA
05.09.2026 19:30
Estádio José Alvalade
Referee: Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal
Sporting CP
Match Timeline
Nacional
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
5'
Maximiliano Araújo
Sporting CP
🟨
20'
Sergi Altimira
Sporting CP
32'
L. Suarez
Sporting CP
🔄
46'
Leo Santos ↔ Deivison
Nacional
🟨
48'
Markus Jensen
Nacional
49'
F. Goncalves · Assist: L. Suarez
Sporting CP
🔄
62'
M. Jensen ↔ C. Labidi
Nacional
🔄
62'
Pablo Ruan ↔ A. Obando
Nacional
🔄
67'
G. Catamo ↔ Luis Guilherme
Sporting CP
🔄
67'
L. Suarez ↔ F. Ioannidis
Sporting CP
🔄
67'
R. Zalazar ↔ N. Irankunda
Sporting CP
🔄
73'
S. Gavriel ↔ M. Djalo
Nacional
🔄
78'
M. Araujo ↔ G. Vagiannidis
Sporting CP
🔄
80'
M. Baeza ↔ Daniel Junior
Nacional
🔄
87'
S. Altimira ↔ S. Andersen
Sporting CP

Sporting CP vs Nacional Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 86.4%
Odds 1.15
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.95
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.37
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
86.4%
1.15
BTTS Yes
67.1%
1.95
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.37
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
85%
2.00
HT / FT Home / Home
-
1.67
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00
Probability Distribution
Sporting CP Win 86.4%
Draw 4.2%
Nacional Win 9.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sporting CP2.8
Nacional1.08
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sporting CP Sporting CP
WWDLW
29 GF / 7 GA
Nacional Nacional
WLDWL
11 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
3.63
Average Goals Scored
1.22
0.88
Average Goals Conceded
1.56
5
BTTS Yes
5
7
Over 2.5
4
6.25
Shots on Goal
3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sporting CP Sporting CP 8 matches
Nacional Nacional 9 matches
Sporting CP Statistic Nacional
7 Wins 1
1 Draws 4
0 Losses 4
29 Goals For 11
7 Goals Against 14
3.63 Avg Goals Scored 1.22
0.88 Avg Goals Conceded 1.56
5 BTTS Yes 5
8 Over 1.5 7
7 Over 2.5 4
7 Over 3.5 3
3 Clean Sheets 2
0 Failed To Score 3
6.25 Shots On Goal 3
12.25 Total Shots 11.75
3.75 Corners 4.5
58% Ball Possession 52.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Sporting CP won 14 times, Nacional won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 37:6 from Sporting CP's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.9%)
Predicted formations: Sporting CP 4-2-3-1 / Nacional 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Sporting CP wins 14, draws 1, Nacional wins 0

Standings

Primeira Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 6 0 0 15:2 13 18
W W W W W
2 6 5 1 0 21:4 17 16
W W W W W
3 6 4 2 0 15:6 9 14
D W W W W
4 6 4 2 0 11:4 7 14
W W D W W
5 6 3 1 2 8:5 3 10
L D W L W
6 6 2 4 0 14:12 2 10
D W D W D
7 5 3 1 1 7:5 2 10
W L W W D
8 6 2 2 2 7:9 -2 8
W W L D L
9 5 2 1 2 4:4 0 7
L L D W W
10 6 2 1 3 7:11 -4 7
L L L D W
11 6 2 1 3 7:13 -6 7
W L L W L
12 6 1 2 3 8:11 -3 5
W L D L D
13 6 0 4 2 5:7 -2 4
D D D L L
14 6 1 1 4 4:7 -3 4
L D L W L
15 6 1 1 4 7:11 -4 4
L L L L W
16 6 1 1 4 5:14 -9 4
D L L W L
17 6 0 2 4 2:8 -6 2
L D L L L
18 6 0 1 5 1:15 -14 1
L D L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2