PORTUGAL PRIMEIRA LIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio José Alvalade
Referee: A. Nobre
Sporting CP
Match Timeline
Guimaraes
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
7'
Diogo Sousa
Guimaraes
9'
G. Inacio · Assist: L. Suarez
Sporting CP
23'
D. Braganca · Assist: H. Morita
Sporting CP
VAR
45+3'
Maximiliano Araújo
Sporting CP
45'
M. Araujo · Assist: Z. Debast
Sporting CP
🔄
46'
H. Morita ↔ Luis Guilherme
Sporting CP
🔄
46'
D. Sousa ↔ G. Nogueira
Guimaraes
🟨
60'
Thiago Balieiro
Guimaraes
61'
L. Suarez · Assist: Pote
Sporting CP
🔄
62'
Gustavo ↔ A. Ndoye
Guimaraes
🔄
62'
M. Nogueira ↔ O. Camara
Guimaraes
🔄
70'
G. Catamo ↔ N. Santos
Sporting CP
74'
Luis Guilherme · Assist: L. Suarez
Sporting CP
🔄
78'
Pote ↔ G. Kochorashvili
Sporting CP
🔄
78'
Trincao ↔ G. Quenda
Sporting CP
🔄
79'
N. Saviolo ↔ T. Arcanjo
Guimaraes
🔄
82'
G. Inacio ↔ O. Diomande
Sporting CP
🔄
85'
Samu ↔ F. Blanco
Guimaraes
85'
Z. Debast
Guimaraes

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 78.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 33.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 30.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
78.3%
-
BTTS BTTS No
33.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
30.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Sporting CP Win 78.3%
Draw 0%
Guimaraes Win 21.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sporting CP1.94
Guimaraes1.08
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sporting CP Sporting CP
WWDLW
99 GF / 37 GA
Guimaraes Guimaraes
WLDWL
38 GF / 43 GA
Key Stats
2.3
Average Goals Scored
1.23
0.86
Average Goals Conceded
1.39
24
BTTS Yes
13
30
Over 2.5
14
6.33
Shots on Goal
3.97

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sporting CP Sporting CP 43 matches
Guimaraes Guimaraes 31 matches
Sporting CP Statistic Guimaraes
28 Wins 12
9 Draws 6
6 Losses 13
99 Goals For 38
37 Goals Against 43
2.3 Avg Goals Scored 1.23
0.86 Avg Goals Conceded 1.39
24 BTTS Yes 13
38 Over 1.5 24
30 Over 2.5 14
14 Over 3.5 7
17 Clean Sheets 10
3 Failed To Score 10
6.33 Shots On Goal 3.97
16.44 Total Shots 13.29
6.4 Corners 4.26
58.7% Ball Possession 50.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Sporting CP's more proactive style and Guimaraes's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Guimaraes. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Sporting CP arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 73 points compared to Guimaraes in 7 on 42, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Sporting CP Analysis

Sporting CP arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 73 points after 31 matches. The record of 22 wins, 7 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 77:22 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through L. Suarez (25 goals), P. Goncalves (13 goals), Geny Catamo (6 goals), with creative support from Trincao (11 assists), P. Goncalves (6 assists), L. Suarez (4 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 11 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Guimaraes Analysis

From their first 31 matches, Guimaraes have collected 42 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. The record of 12 wins, 6 draws, and 13 defeats, together with a 38:43 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Samu (7 goals), Gustavo (5 goals), Oumar Camara (5 goals), with creative support from N. Saviolo (4 assists), Gonçalo Nogueira (4 assists), Samu (3 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses fits a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Sporting CP won 11 times, Guimaraes won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 40:15 from Sporting CP's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Sporting CP 4-2-3-1 / Guimaraes 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Sporting CP wins 11, draws 2, Guimaraes wins 2
Stats
Sporting CP Sporting CP
Guimaraes Guimaraes
Shots on Goal
10
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
1
Blocked Shots
3
1 Corner Kicks 7
7 Fouls 13
3 Offsides 2
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 13
10 Shots on Goal 5
3 Shots off Goal 5
1 Blocked Shots 3
10 Shots insidebox 5
4 Shots outsidebox 8
5 Goalkeeper Saves 5
490 Total passes 455
419 Passes accurate 377
4.22 expected_goals 0.52
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Sporting CP
Formation
Guimaraes
R. Silva
R. Silva
E. Quaresma
E. Quaresma
Z. Debast
🎯
Z. Debast
G. Inacio
G. Inacio
M. Araujo
M. Araujo
D. Braganca
D. Braganca
H. Morita
🎯
H. Morita
G. Catamo
G. Catamo
Trincao
Trincao
Pote
🎯
Pote
L. Suarez
🎯
L. Suarez
Charles Silva
Charles Silva
T. Strata
T. Strata
O. Rivas Viondi
O. Rivas Viondi
Thiago Balieiro
Thiago Balieiro
J. I. Mendes
J. I. Mendes
D. Sousa
D. Sousa
Beni
Beni
M. Nogueira
M. Nogueira
Samu
Samu
N. Saviolo
N. Saviolo
Gustavo
Gustavo
Sporting CP 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
R. Silva
G
72
E. Quaresma
D
6
Z. Debast
⚽ 85' 🎯 45'
D
25
G. Inacio
⚽ 9' ↓ 82'
D
20
M. Araujo
⚽ 45'
D
23
D. Braganca
⚽ 23'
M
5
H. Morita
🎯 23' ↓ 46'
M
10
G. Catamo
↓ 70'
M
17
Trincao
↓ 78'
M
8
Pote
🎯 61' ↓ 78'
M
97
L. Suarez
⚽ 61' 🎯 9' 🎯 74'
F
Substitutes
12
J. Virginia
G
14
G. Kochorashvili
↑ 78'
M
11
N. Santos
↑ 70'
D
26
O. Diomande
↑ 82'
D
90
R. Nel
F
31
Luis Guilherme
⚽ 74' ↑ 46'
F
91
R. Mangas
D
13
G. Vagiannidis
D
7
G. Quenda
↑ 78'
M
Guimaraes 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
27
Charles Silva
G
66
T. Strata
D
4
O. Rivas Viondi
D
28
Thiago Balieiro
🟨 60'
D
13
J. I. Mendes
D
23
D. Sousa
↓ 46' 🟨 7'
M
16
Beni
M
88
M. Nogueira
↓ 62'
M
20
Samu
↓ 85'
M
48
N. Saviolo
↓ 79'
M
11
Gustavo
↓ 62'
F
Substitutes
25
J. Castillo
G
7
N. Oliveira
F
18
T. Arcanjo
↑ 79'
M
90
A. Ndoye
↑ 62'
F
22
F. Blanco
↑ 85'
F
26
R. Abascal
D
2
Maga
D
30
G. Nogueira
↑ 46'
M
19
O. Camara
↑ 62'
F
Last matches: Sporting CP
16.05.26
Pri
Sporting CP
GIL Vicente
3
0
W
11.05.26
Pri
Sporting CP
Rio Ave
4
1
W
29.04.26
Pri
Sporting CP
Tondela
2
2
D
26.04.26
Pri
Sporting CP
AVS
1
1
D
19.04.26
Pri
Sporting CP
Benfica
1
2
L
15.04.26
UEF
Sporting CP
Arsenal
0
0
D
11.04.26
Pri
Sporting CP
Estrela
1
0
W
07.04.26
UEF
Sporting CP
Arsenal
0
1
L
03.04.26
Pri
Sporting CP
Santa Clara
4
2
W
22.03.26
Pri
Sporting CP
Alverca
4
1
W
17.03.26
UEF
Sporting CP
Bodo/Glimt
5
0
W
11.03.26
UEF
Sporting CP
Bodo/Glimt
0
3
L
07.03.26
Pri
Sporting CP
SC Braga
2
2
D
27.02.26
Pri
Sporting CP
Estoril
3
0
W
21.02.26
Pri
Sporting CP
Moreirense
3
0
W
15.02.26
Pri
Sporting CP
Famalicao
1
0
W
09.02.26
Pri
Sporting CP
FC Porto
1
1
D
01.02.26
Pri
Sporting CP
Nacional
2
1
W
28.01.26
UEF
Sporting CP
Athletic Club
3
2
W
24.01.26
Pri
Sporting CP
Arouca
2
1
W
Last matches: Guimaraes
16.05.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Nacional
0
2
L
11.05.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Casa Pia
0
1
L
25.04.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Rio Ave
2
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
Guimaraes
GIL Vicente
1
0
W
11.04.26
Pri
Guimaraes
AVS
1
1
D
03.04.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Tondela
5
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Benfica
0
3
L
14.03.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Famalicao
1
2
L
08.03.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Santa Clara
0
2
L
28.02.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Alverca
1
1
D
21.02.26
Pri
Guimaraes
SC Braga
2
3
L
14.02.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Estrela
2
1
W
07.02.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Arouca
2
3
L
30.01.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Moreirense
1
0
W
24.01.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Estoril
2
4
L
18.01.26
Pri
Guimaraes
FC Porto
0
1
L
02.01.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Nacional
2
1
W
28.12.25
Pri
Guimaraes
Casa Pia
0
0
D
23.12.25
Pri
Guimaraes
Sporting CP
1
4
L
13.12.25
Pri
Guimaraes
Rio Ave
1
0
W
H2H: Sporting CP vs Guimaraes
04.05.26
H2H
Sporting CP
Guimaraes
5
1
W
06.01.26
H2H
Sporting CP
Guimaraes
1
2
L
23.12.25
H2H
Guimaraes
Sporting CP
1
4
W
17.05.25
H2H
Sporting CP
Guimaraes
2
0
W
03.01.25
H2H
Guimaraes
Sporting CP
4
4
D
21.04.24
H2H
Sporting CP
Guimaraes
3
0
W
09.12.23
H2H
Guimaraes
Sporting CP
3
2
L
24.04.23
H2H
Guimaraes
Sporting CP
0
2
W
05.11.22
H2H
Sporting CP
Guimaraes
3
0
W
19.03.22
H2H
Guimaraes
Sporting CP
1
3
W
30.10.21
H2H
Sporting CP
Guimaraes
1
0
W
20.03.21
H2H
Sporting CP
Guimaraes
1
0
W
07.11.20
H2H
Guimaraes
Sporting CP
0
4
W
04.06.20
H2H
Guimaraes
Sporting CP
2
2
D
27.10.19
H2H
Sporting CP
Guimaraes
3
1
W
Last matches: Sporting CP
16.05.26
Pri
Sporting CP
GIL Vicente
3
0
W
29.04.26
Pri
Sporting CP
Tondela
2
2
D
19.04.26
Pri
Sporting CP
Benfica
1
2
L
07.04.26
UEF
Sporting CP
Arsenal
0
1
L
03.04.26
Pri
Sporting CP
Santa Clara
4
2
W
17.03.26
UEF
Sporting CP
Bodo/Glimt
5
0
W
27.02.26
Pri
Sporting CP
Estoril
3
0
W
15.02.26
Pri
Sporting CP
Famalicao
1
0
W
01.02.26
Pri
Sporting CP
Nacional
2
1
W
20.01.26
UEF
Sporting CP
Paris Saint Germain
2
1
W
16.01.26
Pri
Sporting CP
Casa Pia
3
0
W
28.12.25
Pri
Sporting CP
Rio Ave
4
0
W
13.12.25
Pri
Sporting CP
AVS
6
0
W
30.11.25
Pri
Sporting CP
Estrela
4
0
W
26.11.25
UEF
Sporting CP
Club Brugge KV
3
0
W
31.10.25
Pri
Sporting CP
Alverca
2
0
W
22.10.25
UEF
Sporting CP
Marseille
2
1
W
05.10.25
Pri
Sporting CP
SC Braga
1
1
D
22.09.25
Pri
Sporting CP
Moreirense
3
0
W
18.09.25
UEF
Sporting CP
Kairat Almaty
4
1
W
H2H at home: Sporting CP
04.05.26
H2H
Sporting CP
Guimaraes
5
1
W
06.01.26
H2H
Sporting CP
Guimaraes
1
2
L
17.05.25
H2H
Sporting CP
Guimaraes
2
0
W
21.04.24
H2H
Sporting CP
Guimaraes
3
0
W
05.11.22
H2H
Sporting CP
Guimaraes
3
0
W
30.10.21
H2H
Sporting CP
Guimaraes
1
0
W
20.03.21
H2H
Sporting CP
Guimaraes
1
0
W
27.10.19
H2H
Sporting CP
Guimaraes
3
1
W
Last matches: Guimaraes
16.05.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Nacional
0
2
L
18.04.26
Pri
Guimaraes
GIL Vicente
1
0
W
11.04.26
Pri
Guimaraes
AVS
1
1
D
21.03.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Benfica
0
3
L
08.03.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Santa Clara
0
2
L
21.02.26
Pri
Guimaraes
SC Braga
2
3
L
07.02.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Arouca
2
3
L
24.01.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Estoril
2
4
L
28.12.25
Pri
Guimaraes
Casa Pia
0
0
D
13.12.25
Pri
Guimaraes
Rio Ave
1
0
W
08.11.25
Pri
Guimaraes
Tondela
1
0
W
26.10.25
Pri
Guimaraes
Famalicao
0
2
L
28.09.25
Pri
Guimaraes
Alverca
0
2
L
14.09.25
Pri
Guimaraes
Estrela
2
0
W
23.08.25
Pri
Guimaraes
Moreirense
0
2
L
11.08.25
Pri
Guimaraes
FC Porto
0
3
L
H2H away: Guimaraes
04.05.26
H2H
Sporting CP
Guimaraes
5
1
L
06.01.26
H2H
Sporting CP
Guimaraes
1
2
W
17.05.25
H2H
Sporting CP
Guimaraes
2
0
L
21.04.24
H2H
Sporting CP
Guimaraes
3
0
L
05.11.22
H2H
Sporting CP
Guimaraes
3
0
L
30.10.21
H2H
Sporting CP
Guimaraes
1
0
L
20.03.21
H2H
Sporting CP
Guimaraes
1
0
L
27.10.19
H2H
Sporting CP
Guimaraes
3
1
L