BRAZIL SERIE B
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho
Referee: B. Machado
Sport Recife
Match Timeline
Ceara
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
16'
Marcelo Ajul
Sport Recife
🟨
33'
Bruno Ferreira
Ceara
🔄
46'
Clayson ↔ Marlon Douglas
Sport Recife
53'
Chrystian Barletta
Sport Recife
🟨
57'
Chrystian Barletta
Sport Recife
🟨
61'
Lucca
Ceara
🔄
66'
Melk ↔ Pedro Henrique
Ceara
🔄
66'
Fernando ↔ Sanchez
Ceara
🔄
66'
Vinicius Zanocelo ↔ Juan Alano
Ceara
🔄
66'
Matheus Araujo ↔ Diego
Ceara
🟨
69'
Rafael Ramos
Ceara
71'
Madson · Assist: Marlon Douglas
Sport Recife
🔄
75'
Madson ↔ Augusto
Sport Recife
🔄
83'
Biel Fonseca ↔ Yago Felipe
Sport Recife
🔄
83'
Fernandinho ↔ Giulio
Ceara
🟨
87'
Sánchez
Ceara
🔄
90'
Chrystian Barletta ↔ Iury Castilho
Sport Recife
🔄
90'
de Pena Carlos ↔ Max Alves
Sport Recife

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Draw or Away
Probability 71.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 57.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 39%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Draw or Away
71.3%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
57.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
39%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.1%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Sport Recife Win 28.7%
Draw 32.3%
Ceara Win 39%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sport Recife0.93
Ceara1.07
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sport Recife Sport Recife
WWDLW
6 GF / 4 GA
Ceara Ceara
WLDWL
8 GF / 5 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.33
0.67
Average Goals Conceded
0.83
3
BTTS Yes
3
2
Over 2.5
1
4.5
Shots on Goal
4.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sport Recife Sport Recife 6 matches
Ceara Ceara 6 matches
Sport Recife Statistic Ceara
2 Wins 2
4 Draws 4
0 Losses 0
6 Goals For 8
4 Goals Against 5
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
0.67 Avg Goals Conceded 0.83
3 BTTS Yes 3
3 Over 1.5 4
2 Over 2.5 1
1 Over 3.5 1
3 Clean Sheets 3
2 Failed To Score 1
4.5 Shots On Goal 4.67
12.67 Total Shots 12.17
4.5 Corners 4.17
54% Ball Possession 44%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Ceara. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Ceara having the stronger overall control.

Sport Recife Analysis

Sport Recife sit 7 with 10 points after 6 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 4 draws, and 0 losses, while the 6:4 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Pedro Perotti (3 goals), Chrystian Barletta (2 goals), de Pena Carlos (1 goals), with creative support from de Pena Carlos (1 assists), Augusto (1 assists), Felipinho (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Ceara Analysis

So far, Ceara have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 10 points from 6 matches. Their overall return of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 0 losses with goals at 8:5 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Juan Alano (2 goals), Matheus Araujo (2 goals), Fernandinho (1 goals), with creative support from Giulio (1 assists), Joao Gabriel (1 assists), Lucca (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Sport Recife won 5 times, Ceara won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:14 from Sport Recife's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 1.93 goals per game.

1X2: Draw or Away
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (71.3%)
Predicted formations: Sport Recife 4-3-3 / Ceara 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Sport Recife wins 5, draws 5, Ceara wins 5
Stats
Sport Recife Sport Recife
Ceara Ceara
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
7
Shots off Goal
7
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
2
9 Corner Kicks 11
13 Fouls 16
0 Offsides 1
45% Ball Possession 55%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Goal 1
7 Shots off Goal 7
4 Blocked Shots 2
11 Shots insidebox 7
5 Shots outsidebox 3
1 Goalkeeper Saves 3
282 Total passes 354
227 Passes accurate 295
1.99 expected_goals 0.53
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Sport Recife
Formation
Ceara
Thiago Couto
Thiago Couto
Madson
Madson
Benevenuto
Benevenuto
Marcelo Ajul
Marcelo Ajul
Felipinho
Felipinho
Biel Fonseca
Biel Fonseca
Ze Lucas
Ze Lucas
Chrystian Barletta
Chrystian Barletta
de Pena Carlos
de Pena Carlos
Clayson
Clayson
Pedro Perotti
Pedro Perotti
Bruno Ferreira
Bruno Ferreira
R. Ramos
R. Ramos
Eder
Eder
Luiz Otavio
Luiz Otavio
Fernando
Fernando
Lucas Lima
Lucas Lima
Vinicius Zanocelo
Vinicius Zanocelo
Melk
Melk
Matheus Araujo
Matheus Araujo
Fernandinho
Fernandinho
Lucca
Lucca
Sport Recife 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
26
Thiago Couto
G
13
Madson
⚽ 71' ↓ 75'
D
5
Benevenuto
D
3
Marcelo Ajul
🟨 16'
D
60
Felipinho
D
6
Biel Fonseca
↓ 83'
M
58
Ze Lucas
M
30
Chrystian Barletta
⚽ 53' ↓ 90' 🟨 57'
M
10
de Pena Carlos
↓ 90'
M
25
Clayson
↓ 46'
M
9
Pedro Perotti
F
Substitutes
1
Halls
G
7
Yago Felipe
↑ 83'
M
95
Iury Castilho
↑ 90'
F
48
Pedro Martins
M
4
Ze Marcos
D
31
Marlon Douglas
🎯 71' ↑ 46'
F
11
Gustavo Maia
F
23
Ze Gabriel
M
8
Max Alves
↑ 90'
M
96
Edson Lucas
D
28
Habraao
D
68
Augusto
↑ 75'
D
Ceara 3-5-1 (estimated)
Starting XI
94
Bruno Ferreira
🟨 33'
G
2
R. Ramos
33
Eder
D
4
Luiz Otavio
D
17
Fernando
↓ 66'
D
31
Lucas Lima
M
25
Vinicius Zanocelo
↓ 66'
M
40
Melk
↓ 66'
M
8
Matheus Araujo
↓ 66'
M
11
Fernandinho
↓ 83'
M
99
Lucca
🟨 61'
F
Substitutes
41
Gustavo Martins
G
7
Pedro Henrique
↑ 66'
F
12
Sanchez
↑ 66' 🟨 87'
D
10
Juan Alano
↑ 66'
F
30
Gustavo Prado
M
35
Giulio
↑ 83'
F
26
Richardson
M
20
Diego
↑ 66'
D
18
Julio Cesar
D
63
Gilmar
D
81
Joao Gabriel
M
Last matches: Sport Recife
22.07.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Goias
1
1
D
18.07.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Operario-PR
2
2
D
10.07.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Botafogo SP
3
3
D
04.07.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Criciuma
0
1
L
28.06.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Fortaleza EC
1
2
L
19.06.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Atletico Goianiense
1
1
D
14.06.26
Ser
Sport Recife
São Bernardo
0
0
D
11.06.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Athletic Club
1
1
D
30.05.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Nautico Recife
2
0
W
23.05.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Juventude
1
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Sport Recife
CRB
1
2
L
09.05.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Ponte Preta
3
1
W
25.04.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Novorizontino
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Sport Recife
America Mineiro
0
0
D
11.04.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Avai
2
2
D
04.04.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Londrina
2
1
W
01.04.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Vila Nova
1
1
D
21.03.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Cuiaba
0
0
D
Last matches: Ceara
22.07.26
Ser
Ceara
CRB
0
1
L
17.07.26
Ser
Ceara
America Mineiro
1
1
D
13.07.26
Ser
Ceara
Athletic Club
0
0
D
04.07.26
Ser
Ceara
Goias
0
2
L
28.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Juventude
0
2
L
20.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Botafogo SP
0
1
L
16.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Criciuma
1
1
D
10.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Avai
2
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Operario-PR
1
2
L
23.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Novorizontino
1
2
L
17.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Fortaleza EC
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Atletico Goianiense
0
1
L
26.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Vila Nova
3
3
D
19.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Londrina
0
0
D
11.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Nautico Recife
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Cuiaba
2
0
W
02.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Ponte Preta
1
1
D
21.03.26
Ser
Ceara
São Bernardo
1
1
D
H2H: Sport Recife vs Ceara
03.05.26
H2H
Sport Recife
Ceara
2
0
W
15.10.25
H2H
Sport Recife
Ceara
1
1
D
10.07.25
H2H
Sport Recife
Ceara
0
0
D
17.05.25
H2H
Ceara
Sport Recife
2
0
L
08.10.24
H2H
Sport Recife
Ceara
2
1
W
21.06.24
H2H
Ceara
Sport Recife
0
0
D
11.04.24
H2H
Sport Recife
Ceara
2
1
W
28.10.23
H2H
Ceara
Sport Recife
2
1
L
02.07.23
H2H
Sport Recife
Ceara
2
0
W
04.05.23
H2H
Sport Recife
Ceara
1
0
W
20.04.23
H2H
Ceara
Sport Recife
2
1
L
15.02.23
H2H
Ceara
Sport Recife
3
2
L
16.02.22
H2H
Ceara
Sport Recife
0
0
D
14.11.21
H2H
Ceara
Sport Recife
2
1
L
25.07.21
H2H
Sport Recife
Ceara
0
0
D
Last matches: Sport Recife
18.07.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Operario-PR
2
2
D
10.07.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Botafogo SP
3
3
D
19.06.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Atletico Goianiense
1
1
D
11.06.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Athletic Club
1
1
D
30.05.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Nautico Recife
2
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Sport Recife
CRB
1
2
L
25.04.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Novorizontino
1
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Avai
2
2
D
01.04.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Vila Nova
1
1
D
H2H at home: Sport Recife
03.05.26
H2H
Sport Recife
Ceara
2
0
W
15.10.25
H2H
Sport Recife
Ceara
1
1
D
10.07.25
H2H
Sport Recife
Ceara
0
0
D
08.10.24
H2H
Sport Recife
Ceara
2
1
W
11.04.24
H2H
Sport Recife
Ceara
2
1
W
02.07.23
H2H
Sport Recife
Ceara
2
0
W
04.05.23
H2H
Sport Recife
Ceara
1
0
W
25.07.21
H2H
Sport Recife
Ceara
0
0
D
Last matches: Ceara
17.07.26
Ser
Ceara
America Mineiro
1
1
D
04.07.26
Ser
Ceara
Goias
0
2
L
28.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Juventude
0
2
L
16.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Criciuma
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Novorizontino
1
2
L
19.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Londrina
0
0
D
04.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Cuiaba
2
0
W
02.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Ponte Preta
1
1
D
H2H away: Ceara
03.05.26
H2H
Sport Recife
Ceara
2
0
L
15.10.25
H2H
Sport Recife
Ceara
1
1
D
10.07.25
H2H
Sport Recife
Ceara
0
0
D
08.10.24
H2H
Sport Recife
Ceara
2
1
L
11.04.24
H2H
Sport Recife
Ceara
2
1
L
02.07.23
H2H
Sport Recife
Ceara
2
0
L
04.05.23
H2H
Sport Recife
Ceara
1
0
L
25.07.21
H2H
Sport Recife
Ceara
0
0
D

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 11 6 2 23:12 11 39
W W W W W
2 19 10 5 4 27:22 5 35
W D W W W
3 19 10 4 5 27:22 5 34
W L L W L
4 19 9 5 5 21:12 9 32
L W W D W
5 19 9 4 6 22:19 3 31
L W L W W
6 19 8 6 5 28:18 10 30
L L L W W
7 19 8 5 6 21:25 -4 29
D W D W W
8 19 7 7 5 20:19 1 28
W D W L W
9 19 6 10 3 24:18 6 28
D D D L L
10 19 7 6 6 25:19 6 27
L D D L L
11 19 6 9 4 18:17 1 27
W D D L W
12 19 7 5 7 29:32 -3 26
W W D L W
13 19 7 3 9 24:24 0 24
W L L D L
14 19 6 6 7 24:20 4 24
W D D W L
15 19 5 9 5 14:14 0 24
L L D W D
16 19 5 5 9 26:27 -1 20
L D D W D
17 19 5 5 9 21:26 -5 20
W D W L L
18
Ceara Away
19 4 7 8 16:22 -6 19
L D D L L
19 19 2 2 15 14:38 -24 8
L L L L L
20 19 1 5 13 13:31 -18 8
L D D L L
Promotion
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