ITALY SERIE B
--.--.---- --:--
Stadio Alberto Picco
Referee: A. Colombo
Spezia
Match Timeline
Venezia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
5'
Mattia Valoti
Spezia
7'
J. Yeboah · Assist: I. Doumbia
Venezia
🟨
14'
Andrea Adorante
Venezia
VAR
29'
Antoine Hainaut
Venezia
🟨
43'
Luca Vignali
Spezia
🟥
45+2'
Filippo Bandinelli
Spezia
🔄
46'
A. Adorante ↔ A. Casas
Venezia
🔄
58'
L. Vignali ↔ C. Comotto
Spezia
🔄
65'
G. Di Serio ↔ G. Artistico
Spezia
🔄
66'
G. Aurelio ↔ P. Beruatto
Spezia
🔄
67'
R. Haps ↔ R. Sagrado
Venezia
🔄
68'
K. Perez ↔ M. Dagasso
Venezia
70'
R. Sagrado · Assist: M. Svoboda
Venezia
73'
M. Valoti · Assist: A. Mateju
Spezia
VAR
75'
Aleš Matějů
Spezia
🔄
80'
M. Valoti ↔ L. Skjellerup
Spezia
🔄
80'
A. Romano ↔ A. Nagy
Spezia
🔄
81'
J. Yeboah ↔ M. Compagnon
Venezia
🟨
87'
Gianluca Busio
Venezia
🟨
90+2'
Ádám Nagy
Spezia
90'
G. Artistico · Assist: G. Bonfanti
Spezia

Spezia vs Venezia Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 59.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
59.1%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
78.3%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Spezia Win 31.5%
Draw 9.4%
Venezia Win 59.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Spezia1.03
Venezia1.82
Recent Form (Last 5)
Spezia Spezia
WWDLW
43 GF / 59 GA
Venezia Venezia
WLDWL
78 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
1.13
Average Goals Scored
2
1.55
Average Goals Conceded
0.87
22
BTTS Yes
21
17
Over 2.5
23
4.11
Shots on Goal
5.79

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Spezia Spezia 38 matches
Venezia Venezia 39 matches
Spezia Statistic Venezia
8 Wins 24
11 Draws 10
19 Losses 5
43 Goals For 78
59 Goals Against 34
1.13 Avg Goals Scored 2
1.55 Avg Goals Conceded 0.87
22 BTTS Yes 21
29 Over 1.5 34
17 Over 2.5 23
11 Over 3.5 13
6 Clean Sheets 17
12 Failed To Score 5
4.11 Shots On Goal 5.79
11.53 Total Shots 16.85
4.79 Corners 4.59
48.9% Ball Possession 63.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Venezia's more proactive style and Spezia's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Venezia carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 78 points while Spezia sit 20 on 33, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Venezia. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Spezia expected to line up in 5-4-1 and Venezia in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Venezia having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Spezia have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Spezia Analysis

Spezia sit 20 with 33 points after 36 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 9 draws, and 19 defeats, and the 40:56 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on G. Artistico (11 goals), G. Aurelio (6 goals), G. Lapadula (5 goals), with creative support from P. Beruatto (4 assists), G. Aurelio (3 assists), Mattia Valoti (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Venezia Analysis

Venezia come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 78 points after 36 matches. They have recorded 23 wins, 9 draws, and 4 losses, with a 73:29 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on A. Adorante (17 goals), John Yeboah (9 goals), Gianluca Busio (7 goals), with creative support from John Yeboah (8 assists), Kike Pérez (7 assists), A. Hainaut (5 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, their record of 7 wins, 9 draws, and 2 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Spezia won 3 times, Venezia won 4 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:13 from Spezia's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 1.85 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.6%)
Predicted formations: Spezia 5-4-1 / Venezia 3-5-2
H2H summary: Spezia wins 3, draws 6, Venezia wins 4

Standings

Serie B: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 24 10 4 77:31 46 82
W D W W D
2 38 23 12 3 76:34 42 81
W W W W D
3 38 22 10 6 61:32 29 76
D L W W W
4 38 20 12 6 61:33 28 72
L W D W D
5 38 15 14 9 62:51 11 59
L L W D D
6 38 15 10 13 49:36 13 55
L W L L D
7 38 11 18 9 44:45 -1 51
D L D D W
8 38 13 10 15 43:55 -12 49
W L W W D
9 38 13 7 18 45:57 -12 46
L W W L W
10 38 12 10 16 39:49 -10 46
W W L W W
11 38 12 10 16 45:56 -11 46
L D D L L
12 38 10 14 14 47:52 -5 44
L D L D L
13 38 11 11 16 35:48 -13 44
L W D L W
14 38 10 12 16 36:51 -15 42
W L W D D
15 38 9 14 15 47:54 -7 41
D W L D L
16 38 8 17 13 38:48 -10 41
D L L L D
17 38 10 10 18 38:60 -22 40
W W L L L
18 38 9 10 19 36:56 -20 37
W L D L W
19 38 8 11 19 43:59 -16 35
D D L W L
20 38 7 14 17 51:66 -15 35
D L D D L
Promotion - Serie A
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Serie B (Play Out)
Relegation