BULGARIA FIRST LEAGUE
30.08.2026 16:00
Stadion Spartak
Referee: Nikola Popov, Bulgaria
Spartak Varna
Match Timeline
Ludogorets
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
36'
Boris Ivanov
Spartak Varna
🔄
57'
Jota Lopes ↔ A. Gomes
Spartak Varna
🔄
57'
Caio Vidal ↔ A. Marinov
Ludogorets
🟨
59'
David Valverde Juan
Spartak Varna
65'
S. Major
Spartak Varna
68'
S. Shishkov
Ludogorets
🔄
78'
A. Camara ↔ Son
Ludogorets
🔄
78'
J. Andersson ↔ Erick Marcus
Ludogorets
🔄
82'
A. Ahmedov ↔ T. Chunchukov
Spartak Varna
🔄
82'
D. Valverde ↔ D. Lozev
Spartak Varna
🔄
82'
S. Major ↔ T. Marinov
Spartak Varna
🔄
84'
K. Duah ↔ E. Bile
Ludogorets
🟨
85'
Deroy Duarte
Ludogorets
🟨
86'
Tsvetoslav Marinov
Spartak Varna
🟨
88'
Tsvetelin Chunchukov
Spartak Varna
🔄
90'
A. Ivanov ↔ G. Trifonov
Spartak Varna

Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 86.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
86.3%
-
BTTS Yes
75%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Spartak Varna Win 39.6%
Draw 13.7%
Ludogorets Win 46.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Spartak Varna1.47
Ludogorets1.85
Recent Form (Last 5)
Spartak Varna Spartak Varna
WWDLW
22 GF / 20 GA
Ludogorets Ludogorets
WLDWL
32 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
1.57
Average Goals Scored
2.13
1.43
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
6
BTTS Yes
9
7
Over 2.5
8
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Spartak Varna Spartak Varna 14 matches
Ludogorets Ludogorets 15 matches
Spartak Varna Statistic Ludogorets
6 Wins 10
3 Draws 4
5 Losses 1
22 Goals For 32
20 Goals Against 20
1.57 Avg Goals Scored 2.13
1.43 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
6 BTTS Yes 9
8 Over 1.5 12
7 Over 2.5 8
5 Over 3.5 7
4 Clean Sheets 5
5 Failed To Score 1
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Ludogorets. Ludogorets look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Ludogorets carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 15 points while Spartak Varna sit 6 on 7, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Spartak Varna Analysis

Spartak Varna sit 6 with 7 points after 5 league matches. Their overall return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 8:6 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Ludogorets Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 15 points from 5 games, Ludogorets bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 5 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a 10:3 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Spartak Varna won 0 times, Ludogorets won 7 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:21 from Spartak Varna's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 3.38 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.3%)
Predicted formations: Spartak Varna 4-2-3-1 / Ludogorets 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Spartak Varna wins 0, draws 1, Ludogorets wins 7

Standings

A PFG
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 8 1 0 21:4 17 25
D W W W W
2 9 7 2 0 16:7 9 23
W W D D W
3 8 6 2 0 21:6 15 20
W D W W W
4 9 6 1 2 17:9 8 19
W L W L W
5 9 5 1 3 14:11 3 16
L L W W W
6 9 4 1 4 13:14 -1 13
W W L L L
7 9 2 5 2 8:6 2 11
D W L D D
8 9 2 4 3 10:14 -4 10
D D D L L
9 9 2 2 5 7:17 -10 8
D W L W L
10 9 2 2 5 8:15 -7 8
L L D W W
11 9 2 0 7 4:12 -8 6
L W L L L
12 9 1 2 6 10:19 -9 5
D L L W L
13 8 0 4 4 10:16 -6 4
D L D L L
14 9 1 1 7 8:17 -9 4
L L D L W
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