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BULGARIA › FIRST LEAGUE
20.09.2026 12:15
Stadion Spartak
Referee: Stanimir Trenchev, Bulgaria
Spartak Varna
Match Timeline
Lokomotiv Sofia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
22'
Ante Aralica
Lokomotiv Sofia
🟨
45+1'
Erol Dost
Lokomotiv Sofia
⚽
58'
A. Granchov
Lokomotiv Sofia
🟨
60'
Sámuel Major
Spartak Varna
🟨
61'
Krasimir Stanoev
Lokomotiv Sofia
🔄
62'
A. Granchov ↔ Z. Tindano
Spartak Varna
🔄
62'
A. Ahmedov ↔ O. M. Chidera
Spartak Varna
🔄
62'
T. Silva ↔ Jota Lopes
Spartak Varna
🟨
69'
Tsvetoslav Marinov
Spartak Varna
🔄
76'
B. Ivanov ↔ E. Silva
Spartak Varna
🔄
76'
A. Taoui ↔ M. Medfai
Lokomotiv Sofia
🔄
76'
E. Dost ↔ K. Chachev
Lokomotiv Sofia
🔄
76'
A. Aralica ↔ Caue Caruzo
Lokomotiv Sofia
🔄
79'
T. Marinov ↔ T. Chunchukov
Spartak Varna
🟨
83'
Mohamed Medfai
Lokomotiv Sofia
🟨
86'
Dimitar Kostadinov
Lokomotiv Sofia
🔄
86'
D. Kostadinov ↔ N. Neychev
Lokomotiv Sofia
🟨
90+2'
Ryan Bidounga
Lokomotiv Sofia
🔄
90+4'
S. Delev ↔ K. Miloshev
Lokomotiv Sofia

Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 70.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
70.4%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
78.9%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Spartak Varna Win 50.2%
Draw 20.1%
Lokomotiv Sofia Win 29.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Spartak Varna1.56
Lokomotiv Sofia1.25
Recent Form (Last 5)
Spartak Varna Spartak Varna
WWDLW
24 GF / 22 GA
Lokomotiv Sofia Lokomotiv Sofia
WLDWL
22 GF / 32 GA
Key Stats
1.41
Average Goals Scored
1.22
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
1.78
8
BTTS Yes
13
7
Over 2.5
11
1.56
Shots on Goal
2.22

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Spartak Varna Spartak Varna 17 matches
Lokomotiv Sofia Lokomotiv Sofia 18 matches
Spartak Varna Statistic Lokomotiv Sofia
6 Wins 3
6 Draws 7
5 Losses 8
24 Goals For 22
22 Goals Against 32
1.41 Avg Goals Scored 1.22
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 1.78
8 BTTS Yes 13
10 Over 1.5 15
7 Over 2.5 11
5 Over 3.5 7
5 Clean Sheets 3
6 Failed To Score 3
1.56 Shots On Goal 2.22
3.89 Total Shots 4.67
0.89 Corners 1.78
18.9% Ball Possession 16.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Lokomotiv Sofia. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Spartak Varna arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 8 with 9 points compared to Lokomotiv Sofia in 13 on 4, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Spartak Varna Analysis

With 9 points from 8 games and a place of 8, Spartak Varna still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 10:14, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Lokomotiv Sofia Analysis

With 4 points from 8 games and a place of 13, Lokomotiv Sofia still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 10:16, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Spartak Varna won 4 times, Lokomotiv Sofia won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:12 from Spartak Varna's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.7 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (79.9%)
Predicted formations: Spartak Varna 4-2-3-1 / Lokomotiv Sofia 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Spartak Varna wins 4, draws 3, Lokomotiv Sofia wins 3

Standings

A PFG
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 9 1 0 23:4 19 28
W D W W W
2 11 8 3 0 27:9 18 27
W D W W D
3 10 8 2 0 21:7 14 26
W W W D D
4 11 7 1 3 21:13 8 22
L W W L W
5 11 6 1 4 17:14 3 19
W W W W L
6 11 5 2 4 15:17 -2 17
L D L L W
7 11 3 4 4 11:15 -4 13
W L D D D
8 11 2 5 4 9:9 0 11
L L D W L
9 11 2 3 6 9:20 -11 9
L D D W L
10 11 2 2 7 13:21 -8 8
W D L L D
11 11 2 2 7 6:14 -8 8
D D L W L
12 11 1 5 5 12:19 -7 8
D W L D L
13 11 2 2 7 10:21 -11 8
L L L L D
14 11 1 3 7 11:22 -11 6
L D D L L
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