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RUSSIA › PREMIER LEAGUE
18.10.2026 15:30
Lukoil Arena

Spartak Moscow vs Rubin Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 60.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
60.2%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
78.9%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
91.5%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Spartak Moscow Win 60.2%
Draw 4.6%
Rubin Win 35.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Spartak Moscow1.35
Rubin1.19
Recent Form (Last 5)
Spartak Moscow Spartak Moscow
WWDLW
32 GF / 16 GA
Rubin Rubin
WLDWL
30 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.68
Average Goals Scored
1.43
0.84
Average Goals Conceded
0.86
10
BTTS Yes
13
9
Over 2.5
6
4.7
Shots on Goal
3.2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Spartak Moscow Spartak Moscow 19 matches
Rubin Rubin 21 matches
Spartak Moscow Statistic Rubin
12 Wins 9
4 Draws 8
3 Losses 4
32 Goals For 30
16 Goals Against 18
1.68 Avg Goals Scored 1.43
0.84 Avg Goals Conceded 0.86
10 BTTS Yes 13
15 Over 1.5 18
9 Over 2.5 6
2 Over 3.5 4
8 Clean Sheets 6
2 Failed To Score 3
4.7 Shots On Goal 3.2
14.9 Total Shots 10.7
6.3 Corners 3.9
60.8% Ball Possession 47.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Spartak Moscow expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Rubin in 5-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Rubin having the stronger overall control. Spartak Moscow arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 20 points compared to Rubin in 7 on 12, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Rubin. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Spartak Moscow Analysis

Spartak Moscow come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 20 points from 10 matches. The record of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 17:8 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through M. Ugalde (4 goals), P. Solari (2 goals), R. Zobnin (1 goals), with creative support from Marquinhos (4 assists), I. Dmitriev (2 assists), D. Denisov (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Rubin Analysis

So far, Rubin have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 12 points from 9 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 6 draws, and 1 losses, while the 12:11 goal ratio supports the view of poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Going forward they rely heavily on J. Siwe (3 goals), A. Arroyo (2 goals), M. Daku (2 goals), with creative support from A. Arroyo (1 assists), M. Daku (1 assists), I. Rozhkov (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 0 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Spartak Moscow won 8 times, Rubin won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:11 from Spartak Moscow's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.4%)
Predicted formations: Spartak Moscow 4-2-3-1 / Rubin 5-4-1
H2H summary: Spartak Moscow wins 8, draws 4, Rubin wins 3

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 1 2 15:8 7 22
W W W W W
2 10 6 4 0 18:9 9 22
W W D W D
3 10 7 0 3 22:11 11 21
W W W L W
4 10 6 3 1 16:10 6 21
L D D D W
5 10 6 2 2 17:8 9 20
D W W L D
6
Rubin Away
10 2 6 2 12:12 0 12
L D D D W
7 10 2 6 2 11:10 1 12
W D L D D
8 10 3 3 4 14:12 2 12
D L D L W
9 10 4 0 6 15:20 -5 12
L L L W L
10 10 2 6 2 14:15 -1 12
D D W D D
11 10 2 5 3 13:13 0 11
D L W D D
12 10 3 2 5 11:17 -6 11
W L L W L
13 10 2 4 4 13:11 2 10
W D L W L
14 10 1 5 4 11:19 -8 8
L W D D D
15 10 1 2 7 10:25 -15 5
L D L L L
16 10 0 3 7 6:18 -12 3
L L D L L
Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - FNL