RUSSIA › PREMIER LEAGUE
11.05.2026 14:30
Lukoil Arena
Referee: I. Abrosimov
Spartak Moscow
Match Timeline
Rubin
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
4'
C. Wooh · Assist: M. Ugalde
Spartak Moscow
🔄
21'
A. Arroyo ↔ D. Kabutov
Rubin
🟨
34'
Denil Maldonado
Rubin
🔄
46'
D. Maldonado ↔ N. Lobov
Rubin
🟨
53'
Marquinhos
Spartak Moscow
⚽
60'
P. Solari · Assist: M. Ugalde
Spartak Moscow
🟨
63'
Ignacio Saavedra
Rubin
🔄
65'
P. Solari ↔ G. Fernandes
Spartak Moscow
🔄
65'
I. Saavedra ↔ B. Jocic
Rubin
🔄
65'
N. Gripshi ↔ A. Jukic
Rubin
🔄
75'
R. Litvinov ↔ C. Martins
Spartak Moscow
🔄
75'
Marquinhos ↔ I. Dmitriev
Spartak Moscow
🔄
79'
R. Bezrukov ↔ J. Siwe
Rubin
🟨
84'
Manfred Ugalde
Spartak Moscow
🟨
84'
Igor Vujačić
Rubin
🟨
85'
Bogdan Jočić
Rubin
🔄
87'
M. Ugalde ↔ L. Garcia
Spartak Moscow
🔄
87'
R. Zobnin ↔ N. Massalyga
Spartak Moscow
🟨
90+1'
Veldin Hodža
Rubin
⚽
90'
A. Jukic · Assist: B. Jocic
Rubin

Spartak Moscow vs Rubin Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 38.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 42.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.8%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
38.9%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
42.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Spartak Moscow Win 56.8%
Draw 8%
Rubin Win 35.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Spartak Moscow1.34
Rubin1.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Spartak Moscow Spartak Moscow
WWDLW
45 GF / 38 GA
Rubin Rubin
WLDWL
26 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.61
Average Goals Scored
0.93
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
0.93
19
BTTS Yes
8
17
Over 2.5
9
4.46
Shots on Goal
3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Spartak Moscow Spartak Moscow 28 matches
Rubin Rubin 28 matches
Spartak Moscow Statistic Rubin
14 Wins 11
6 Draws 9
8 Losses 8
45 Goals For 26
38 Goals Against 26
1.61 Avg Goals Scored 0.93
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 0.93
19 BTTS Yes 8
24 Over 1.5 14
17 Over 2.5 9
7 Over 3.5 4
6 Clean Sheets 14
3 Failed To Score 11
4.46 Shots On Goal 3
13.82 Total Shots 10.14
5.5 Corners 3.82
61.3% Ball Possession 43.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and Spartak Moscow's more proactive style and Rubin's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Rubin seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Spartak Moscow expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Rubin in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Rubin having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Rubin.

Spartak Moscow Analysis

Spartak Moscow arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 48 points after 28 matches. The record of 14 wins, 6 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 45:38 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through E. Barco (8 goals), Pablo Solari (7 goals), G. Fernandes (5 goals), with creative support from E. Barco (7 assists), Marquinhos (6 assists), I. Dmitriev (5 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, the record of 9 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with S. Babic unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Rubin Analysis

So far, Rubin have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 42 points from 28 matches. The record of 11 wins, 9 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 26:26 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through M. Daku (10 goals), Veldin Hodža (3 goals), D. Shabanhaxhaj (2 goals), with creative support from N. Gripshi (3 assists), U. Iwu (3 assists), Dmitriy Kabutov (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without U. Iwu, A. Shvets, I. Rozhkov, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Spartak Moscow won 8 times, Rubin won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:11 from Spartak Moscow's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92%)
Predicted formations: Spartak Moscow 4-2-3-1 / Rubin 3-4-3
Missing players: Spartak Moscow 1, Rubin 3
H2H summary: Spartak Moscow wins 8, draws 4, Rubin wins 3

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 20 8 2 53:19 34 68
W W W W D
2 30 20 6 4 60:23 37 66
W L W W W
3 30 14 11 5 54:39 15 53
L W D L D
4 30 15 7 8 47:39 8 52
D W L W L
5 30 15 6 9 44:33 11 51
W W L D D
6 30 11 13 6 38:21 17 46
L L L L D
7 30 12 9 9 51:40 11 45
W W D W L
8
Rubin Away
30 11 10 9 29:30 -1 43
D L W D W
9 30 9 10 11 35:39 -4 37
D D W L D
10 30 8 9 13 25:32 -7 33
L W W L D
11 30 8 8 14 35:50 -15 32
W L W W L
12 30 7 8 15 29:44 -15 29
L W L W W
13 30 6 9 15 35:53 -18 27
L W L L L
14 30 5 11 14 19:37 -18 26
W W D D L
15 30 6 5 19 26:50 -24 23
D L L L L
16 30 6 4 20 29:60 -31 22
D L W L W
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation