RUSSIA PREMIER LEAGUE
13.09.2026 14:00
Lukoil Arena

Spartak Moscow vs FC Rostov Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 64%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
64%
-
BTTS Yes
82.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Spartak Moscow Win 64%
Draw 10%
FC Rostov Win 26%
Expected Goals (xG)
Spartak Moscow1.64
FC Rostov1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
Spartak Moscow Spartak Moscow
WWDLW
27 GF / 15 GA
FC Rostov FC Rostov
WLDWL
28 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
1.69
Average Goals Scored
1.56
0.94
Average Goals Conceded
1.56
9
BTTS Yes
11
8
Over 2.5
11
4.43
Shots on Goal
5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Spartak Moscow Spartak Moscow 16 matches
FC Rostov FC Rostov 18 matches
Spartak Moscow Statistic FC Rostov
10 Wins 6
3 Draws 5
3 Losses 7
27 Goals For 28
15 Goals Against 28
1.69 Avg Goals Scored 1.56
0.94 Avg Goals Conceded 1.56
9 BTTS Yes 11
13 Over 1.5 14
8 Over 2.5 11
2 Over 3.5 7
6 Clean Sheets 5
2 Failed To Score 4
4.43 Shots On Goal 5
13.43 Total Shots 15
6.71 Corners 4.71
61.7% Ball Possession 48.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Spartak Moscow's more proactive style and FC Rostov's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors FC Rostov. Spartak Moscow arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 13 points compared to FC Rostov in 9 on 8, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Spartak Moscow expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and FC Rostov in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FC Rostov having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Spartak Moscow Analysis

Spartak Moscow come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 13 points after 6 matches. With 4 wins, 1 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 11:5, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Manfred Ugalde (2 goals), Christopher Wooh (1 goals), Pablo Solari (1 goals), with creative support from Marquinhos (3 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, the split of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

FC Rostov Analysis

FC Rostov are currently 9 in the standings with 8 points from 7 matches. Their overall return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 10:11 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by T. Suleymanov (2 goals), A. Langovich (1 goals), K. Kuchaev (1 goals), with creative support from A. Langovich (2 assists), K. Kuchaev (2 assists), O. Olusegun (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Spartak Moscow won 6 times, FC Rostov won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 26:17 from Spartak Moscow's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90%)
Predicted formations: Spartak Moscow 4-1-4-1 / FC Rostov 4-3-3
Missing players: Spartak Moscow 4, FC Rostov 2
H2H summary: Spartak Moscow wins 6, draws 4, FC Rostov wins 5

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 6 1 0 13:6 7 19
D W W W W
2 7 4 3 0 11:7 4 15
W D W W D
3 7 4 1 2 10:8 2 13
W W W L W
4 7 4 1 2 12:7 5 13
L D W W L
5 7 4 0 3 14:6 8 12
L W L W L
6 7 4 0 3 12:10 2 12
W L L W L
7 7 3 1 3 10:7 3 10
L W D L W
8 7 2 4 1 10:9 1 10
D W D D D
9 7 2 2 3 10:11 -1 8
W L L D D
10 7 1 5 1 7:9 -2 8
D D D D D
11 7 1 4 2 10:9 1 7
D D W L D
12 7 1 4 2 10:12 -2 7
D D W L L
13 7 1 3 3 6:8 -2 6
W L L D D
14 7 1 1 5 8:19 -11 4
L L L D W
15 7 0 4 3 8:17 -9 4
D D L D D
16 7 0 2 5 4:10 -6 2
L L D L D
Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - FNL