RUSSIA PREMIER LEAGUE
23.04.2026 16:45
Lukoil Arena
Referee: I. Tanashev
Spartak Moscow
Match Timeline
FC Krasnodar
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
38'
C. Martins · Assist: R. Litvinov
Spartak Moscow
VAR
44'
Kevin Lenini
FC Krasnodar
45'
E. Spertsyan
FC Krasnodar
🟨
56'
Jubal
FC Krasnodar
🔄
65'
M. Ugalde ↔ P. Solari
Spartak Moscow
🔄
74'
Joao Batxi ↔ J. Boselli
FC Krasnodar
🔄
74'
E. Spertsyan ↔ M. D. Cobnan
FC Krasnodar
🔄
81'
D. Denisov ↔ I. Dmitriev
Spartak Moscow
🔄
81'
C. Martins ↔ L. Garcia
Spartak Moscow
85'
Jubal Junior · Assist: G. Gonzalez
FC Krasnodar

Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 64%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 74.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
64%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
74.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
-
Probability Distribution
Spartak Moscow Win 64%
Draw 0%
FC Krasnodar Win 36%
Expected Goals (xG)
Spartak Moscow1.29
FC Krasnodar1.75
Recent Form (Last 5)
Spartak Moscow Spartak Moscow
WWDLW
41 GF / 33 GA
FC Krasnodar FC Krasnodar
WLDWL
51 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.64
Average Goals Scored
2.04
1.32
Average Goals Conceded
0.76
16
BTTS Yes
13
14
Over 2.5
13
4.28
Shots on Goal
4.84

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Spartak Moscow Spartak Moscow 25 matches
FC Krasnodar FC Krasnodar 25 matches
Spartak Moscow Statistic FC Krasnodar
13 Wins 16
6 Draws 6
6 Losses 3
41 Goals For 51
33 Goals Against 19
1.64 Avg Goals Scored 2.04
1.32 Avg Goals Conceded 0.76
16 BTTS Yes 13
21 Over 1.5 20
14 Over 2.5 13
7 Over 3.5 6
6 Clean Sheets 11
3 Failed To Score 2
4.28 Shots On Goal 4.84
13.6 Total Shots 15.68
5.12 Corners 5.28
61.2% Ball Possession 59.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward FC Krasnodar. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Spartak Moscow Analysis

Operating from 5 place with 45 points from 25 games, Spartak Moscow bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 13 wins, 6 draws, and 6 defeats, together with goals at 38:32, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through E. Barco (7 goals), Pablo Solari (7 goals), G. Fernandes (5 goals), with creative support from E. Barco (6 assists), Marquinhos (6 assists), I. Dmitriev (4 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, the split of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with S. Babic, V. Saus, C. Wooh unavailable.

FC Krasnodar Analysis

FC Krasnodar come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 54 points after 25 matches. With 16 wins, 6 draws, and 3 defeats plus a goal balance of 49:17, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by J. Cordoba (14 goals), E. Spertsyan (11 goals), Nikita Krivtsov (6 goals), with creative support from E. Spertsyan (14 assists), J. Cordoba (5 assists), Joao Batxi (4 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their record of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 1 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with A. Koksharov, S. Petrov, V. Stezhko, Diego Costa unavailable.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Spartak Moscow won 8 times, FC Krasnodar won 6 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 31:22 from Spartak Moscow's perspective. 12 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.53 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Spartak Moscow 4-2-3-1 / FC Krasnodar 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Spartak Moscow 3, FC Krasnodar 4
H2H summary: Spartak Moscow wins 8, draws 1, FC Krasnodar wins 6

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 20 8 2 53:19 34 68
W W W W D
2 30 20 6 4 60:23 37 66
W L W W W
3 30 14 11 5 54:39 15 53
L W D L D
4 30 15 7 8 47:39 8 52
D W L W L
5 30 15 6 9 44:33 11 51
W W L D D
6 30 11 13 6 38:21 17 46
L L L L D
7 30 12 9 9 51:40 11 45
W W D W L
8 30 11 10 9 29:30 -1 43
D L W D W
9 30 9 10 11 35:39 -4 37
D D W L D
10 30 8 9 13 25:32 -7 33
L W W L D
11 30 8 8 14 35:50 -15 32
W L W W L
12 30 7 8 15 29:44 -15 29
L W L W W
13 30 6 9 15 35:53 -18 27
L W L L L
14 30 5 11 14 19:37 -18 26
W W D D L
15 30 6 5 19 26:50 -24 23
D L L L L
16 30 6 4 20 29:60 -31 22
D L W L W
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation