ENGLAND CHAMPIONSHIP
22.08.2026 14:00
St. Mary's Stadium
Referee: Steve Martin, England
Southampton
Match Timeline
Stoke City
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
8'
C. Larin · Assist: F. Downes
Southampton
🟨
19'
James Bree
Southampton
26'
E. Galbraith · Assist: S. Gallagher
Stoke City
🟨
38'
Sam Gallagher
Stoke City
🟨
50'
Flynn Downes
Southampton
🟨
52'
Ryan Manning
Southampton
🟨
62'
Ethan Galbraith
Stoke City
🔄
62'
G. Hirst ↔ R. Bozenik
Stoke City
🔄
70'
S. Gallagher ↔ S. Ingelsson
Stoke City
🔄
78'
L. Scienza ↔ L. Dobbin
Southampton
🔄
78'
C. Larin ↔ D. Mubama
Southampton
🔄
81'
E. Bocat ↔ M. Talovierov
Stoke City
🔄
81'
D. Soumare ↔ T. Rigo
Stoke City
🟨
82'
Maksym Talovierov
Stoke City
🟨
86'
Svante Ingelsson
Stoke City
89'
D. Mubama · Assist: F. Azaz
Southampton
🟨
90+3'
Svante Ingelsson
Stoke City
🟥
90+3'
Svante Ingelsson
Stoke City
🔄
90+5'
F. Azaz ↔ R. Akachukwu
Southampton
🔄
90+5'
K. Matsuki ↔ C. Bragg
Southampton
🔄
90'
T. Fellows ↔ S. Edozie
Southampton
90'
R. Manning
Southampton

Southampton vs Stoke City Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 86.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
86.1%
-
BTTS Yes
58.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Southampton Win 86.1%
Draw 7%
Stoke City Win 7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Southampton1.45
Stoke City0.88
Recent Form (Last 5)
Southampton Southampton
WWDLW
7 GF / 4 GA
Stoke City Stoke City
WLDWL
4 GF / 5 GA
Key Stats
1.75
Average Goals Scored
0.8
1
Average Goals Conceded
1
3
BTTS Yes
3
3
Over 2.5
1
3
Shots on Goal
2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Southampton Southampton 4 matches
Stoke City Stoke City 5 matches
Southampton Statistic Stoke City
3 Wins 1
0 Draws 2
1 Losses 2
7 Goals For 4
4 Goals Against 5
1.75 Avg Goals Scored 0.8
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1
3 BTTS Yes 3
3 Over 1.5 3
3 Over 2.5 1
1 Over 3.5 0
1 Clean Sheets 1
0 Failed To Score 1
3 Shots On Goal 2
17 Total Shots 6
8 Corners 4
66% Ball Possession 41%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Southampton won 7 times, Stoke City won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:15 from Southampton's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (93%)
Predicted formations: Southampton 4-2-3-1 / Stoke City 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Southampton 1, Stoke City 3
H2H summary: Southampton wins 7, draws 2, Stoke City wins 6

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 4 1 1 9:6 3 13
W W D L W
2 6 3 2 1 14:9 5 11
W W W D L
3 6 3 2 1 8:4 4 11
L D W W D
4 6 3 2 1 7:4 3 11
D L W W D
5 6 3 2 1 6:7 -1 11
D L D W W
6 5 3 1 1 8:5 3 10
W D W L W
7 5 3 1 1 9:7 2 10
W W W D L
8 5 3 0 2 10:8 2 9
W L L W W
9 6 3 0 3 10:9 1 9
W W L W L
10 6 2 3 1 8:8 0 9
W L W D D
11 5 2 2 1 13:10 3 8
D L W W D
12 6 2 2 2 6:7 -1 8
W L L D D
13 6 3 2 1 14:7 7 7
W D D W W
14 6 1 4 1 7:5 2 7
D D W L D
15 6 1 4 1 8:8 0 7
L D D W D
16 6 2 1 3 9:10 -1 7
D W W L L
17 5 2 0 3 7:8 -1 6
W L L W L
18 6 1 2 3 7:9 -2 5
L L D L W
19 5 1 2 2 4:6 -2 5
D D W L L
20 6 0 4 2 7:10 -3 4
D L L D D
21 6 1 1 4 6:12 -6 4
L L L L D
22 6 1 1 4 5:11 -6 4
L L W L D
23 6 0 3 3 7:13 -6 3
D L D L L
24 6 1 0 5 6:12 -6 3
L W L L L
Promotion - Premier League
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation - League One