ENGLAND CHAMPIONSHIP
12.05.2026 19:00
St. Mary's Stadium
Referee: A. Madley
Southampton
Match Timeline
Middlesbrough
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
5'
R. McGree · Assist: C. Brittain
Middlesbrough
🟨
13'
Riley McGree
Middlesbrough
🟨
37'
Nathan Wood
Southampton
🟨
38'
Luke Ayling
Middlesbrough
45'
R. Stewart
Southampton
🟨
56'
Finn Azaz
Southampton
🔄
66'
K. Matsuki ↔ F. Downes
Southampton
🔄
73'
T. Conway ↔ A. Browne
Middlesbrough
🟨
78'
Adilson Malanda
Middlesbrough
🔄
83'
D. Strelec ↔ L. Castledine
Middlesbrough
🔄
84'
R. Stewart ↔ C. Larin
Southampton
🔄
85'
L. Scienza ↔ S. Edozie
Southampton
🟨
92'
Callum Brittain
Middlesbrough
🔄
105'
R. McGree ↔ J. Sarmiento
Middlesbrough
116'
S. Charles · Assist: T. Harwood-Bellis
Southampton
🔄
119'
↔ Welington
Southampton
🔄
119'
C. Jander ↔ C. Bragg
Southampton
🔄
119'
L. Ayling ↔ S. Hansen
Middlesbrough
🟨
120+6'
Cyle Larin
Southampton
🟨
120+3'
Daniel Peretz
Southampton

Southampton vs Middlesbrough Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 82.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 79.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 63.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
82.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
79.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
63.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Southampton Win 45.8%
Draw 17.3%
Middlesbrough Win 37%
Expected Goals (xG)
Southampton1.47
Middlesbrough1.39
Recent Form (Last 5)
Southampton Southampton
WWDLW
91 GF / 62 GA
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough
WLDWL
73 GF / 50 GA
Key Stats
1.75
Average Goals Scored
1.52
1.19
Average Goals Conceded
1.04
37
BTTS Yes
27
33
Over 2.5
26
5.1
Shots on Goal
4.96

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Southampton Southampton 52 matches
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 48 matches
Southampton Statistic Middlesbrough
26 Wins 22
15 Draws 15
11 Losses 11
91 Goals For 73
62 Goals Against 50
1.75 Avg Goals Scored 1.52
1.19 Avg Goals Conceded 1.04
37 BTTS Yes 27
44 Over 1.5 33
33 Over 2.5 26
17 Over 3.5 15
13 Clean Sheets 14
6 Failed To Score 12
5.1 Shots On Goal 4.96
13.73 Total Shots 16.04
5.52 Corners 6.81
54.7% Ball Possession 59.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This tie brings together two sides with a fairly similar football identity, with the knockout context adding extra pressure to every phase of the game. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. The first leg ended level at 0-0, so the tie remains finely balanced going into this match. In the previous meeting, Middlesbrough controlled more possession in the first leg (64% against 36%). Middlesbrough carried the greater threat on target, finishing with 5 shots on goal compared to 0. Middlesbrough circulated the ball more often, making 568 passes to 328 and completing 481. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Middlesbrough. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Southampton expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Middlesbrough in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Middlesbrough having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Southampton Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Southampton arrive from a league campaign that has them 4 with 80 points after 46 matches. With 22 wins, 14 draws, and 10 losses plus a goal ratio of 82:56, they bring mixed form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on A. Armstrong (11 goals), F. Azaz (11 goals), C. Larin (8 goals), with creative support from L. Scienza (10 assists), F. Azaz (8 assists), R. Manning (6 assists), while defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the return of 12 wins, 8 draws, and 3 losses suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with M. Roerslev Rasmussen, A. McCarthy, J. Stephens unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Middlesbrough Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Middlesbrough arrive from a league campaign that has them 5 with 80 points after 46 matches. Their record of 22 wins, 14 draws, and 10 defeats with goals at 72:47 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on M. Whittaker (14 goals), Tommy Conway (13 goals), D. Strelec (8 goals), with creative support from M. Whittaker (7 assists), H. Hackney (7 assists), Tommy Conway (5 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 10 wins, 8 draws, and 5 losses, which supports a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football. Although they are without A. Jones, D. Lenihan, H. Hackney, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Southampton won 4 times, Middlesbrough won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:12 from Southampton's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.7%)
Predicted formations: Southampton 4-2-3-1 / Middlesbrough 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Southampton 3, Middlesbrough 4
H2H summary: Southampton wins 4, draws 3, Middlesbrough wins 3

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 28 11 7 97:45 52 95
W W W D D
2 46 23 15 8 80:47 33 84
W D D W D
3 46 24 11 11 64:49 15 83
L D W D W
4 46 22 14 10 82:56 26 80
W D W D D
5 46 22 14 10 72:47 25 80
L L D D W
6 46 21 10 15 70:66 4 73
W W D W L
7 46 19 14 13 69:65 4 71
D L W W L
8 46 20 9 17 67:59 8 69
L W L W L
9 46 19 8 19 63:56 7 65
L D W W L
10 46 17 13 16 57:56 1 64
D W W D W
11 46 18 10 18 57:59 -2 64
W D W L W
12 46 17 11 18 59:59 0 62
W L D L D
13 46 18 6 22 66:66 0 60
W L L W W
14 46 15 15 16 55:62 -7 60
L W L L W
15 46 16 10 20 61:73 -12 58
L L L L D
16 46 14 15 17 53:65 -12 57
L L L L L
17 46 15 10 21 51:56 -5 55
L L L L D
18 46 14 13 19 49:64 -15 55
D W L W W
19 46 13 14 19 44:58 -14 53
L W L D L
20 46 13 13 20 42:56 -14 52
L W D L D
21 46 13 14 19 48:58 -10 51
L D W W D
22 46 11 14 21 45:59 -14 47
L W L L W
23 46 12 16 18 58:68 -10 46
W D D L L
24 46 2 12 32 29:89 -60 0
W L L D D
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation