ENGLAND CHAMPIONSHIP
--.--.---- --:--
St. Mary's Stadium
Referee: A. Madley
Southampton
Match Timeline
Middlesbrough
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
5'
R. McGree · Assist: C. Brittain
Middlesbrough
🟨
13'
Riley McGree
Middlesbrough
🟨
37'
Nathan Wood
Southampton
🟨
38'
Luke Ayling
Middlesbrough
45'
R. Stewart
Southampton
🟨
56'
Finn Azaz
Southampton
🔄
66'
K. Matsuki ↔ F. Downes
Southampton
🔄
73'
T. Conway ↔ A. Browne
Middlesbrough
🟨
78'
Adilson Malanda
Middlesbrough
🔄
83'
D. Strelec ↔ L. Castledine
Middlesbrough
🔄
84'
R. Stewart ↔ C. Larin
Southampton
🔄
85'
L. Scienza ↔ S. Edozie
Southampton
🟨
92'
Callum Brittain
Middlesbrough
🔄
105'
R. McGree ↔ J. Sarmiento
Middlesbrough
116'
S. Charles · Assist: T. Harwood-Bellis
Southampton
🔄
119'
↔ Welington
Southampton
🔄
119'
C. Jander ↔ C. Bragg
Southampton
🔄
119'
L. Ayling ↔ S. Hansen
Middlesbrough
🟨
120+6'
Cyle Larin
Southampton
🟨
120+3'
Daniel Peretz
Southampton

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 82.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 79.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 63.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
82.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
79.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
63.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Southampton Win 45.8%
Draw 17.3%
Middlesbrough Win 37%
Expected Goals (xG)
Southampton1.47
Middlesbrough1.39
Recent Form (Last 5)
Southampton Southampton
WWDLW
91 GF / 62 GA
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough
WLDWL
73 GF / 50 GA
Key Stats
1.75
Average Goals Scored
1.52
1.19
Average Goals Conceded
1.04
37
BTTS Yes
27
33
Over 2.5
26
5.1
Shots on Goal
4.96

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Southampton Southampton 52 matches
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 48 matches
Southampton Statistic Middlesbrough
26 Wins 22
15 Draws 15
11 Losses 11
91 Goals For 73
62 Goals Against 50
1.75 Avg Goals Scored 1.52
1.19 Avg Goals Conceded 1.04
37 BTTS Yes 27
44 Over 1.5 33
33 Over 2.5 26
17 Over 3.5 15
13 Clean Sheets 14
6 Failed To Score 12
5.1 Shots On Goal 4.96
13.73 Total Shots 16.04
5.52 Corners 6.81
54.7% Ball Possession 59.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This tie brings together two sides with a fairly similar football identity, with the knockout context adding extra pressure to every phase of the game. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. The first leg ended level at 0-0, so the tie remains finely balanced going into this match. In the previous meeting, Middlesbrough controlled more possession in the first leg (64% against 36%). Middlesbrough carried the greater threat on target, finishing with 5 shots on goal compared to 0. Middlesbrough circulated the ball more often, making 568 passes to 328 and completing 481. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Middlesbrough. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Southampton expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Middlesbrough in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Middlesbrough having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Southampton Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Southampton arrive from a league campaign that has them 4 with 80 points after 46 matches. With 22 wins, 14 draws, and 10 losses plus a goal ratio of 82:56, they bring mixed form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on A. Armstrong (11 goals), F. Azaz (11 goals), C. Larin (8 goals), with creative support from L. Scienza (10 assists), F. Azaz (8 assists), R. Manning (6 assists), while defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the return of 12 wins, 8 draws, and 3 losses suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with M. Roerslev Rasmussen, A. McCarthy, J. Stephens unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Middlesbrough Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Middlesbrough arrive from a league campaign that has them 5 with 80 points after 46 matches. Their record of 22 wins, 14 draws, and 10 defeats with goals at 72:47 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on M. Whittaker (14 goals), Tommy Conway (13 goals), D. Strelec (8 goals), with creative support from M. Whittaker (7 assists), H. Hackney (7 assists), Tommy Conway (5 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 10 wins, 8 draws, and 5 losses, which supports a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football. Although they are without A. Jones, D. Lenihan, H. Hackney, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Southampton won 4 times, Middlesbrough won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:12 from Southampton's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.7%)
Predicted formations: Southampton 4-2-3-1 / Middlesbrough 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Southampton 3, Middlesbrough 4
H2H summary: Southampton wins 4, draws 3, Middlesbrough wins 3
Stats
Southampton Southampton
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough
Shots on Goal
7
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
7
Blocked Shots
7
Blocked Shots
9
11 Corner Kicks 5
15 Fouls 19
0 Offsides 1
60% Ball Possession 40%
20 Total Shots 19
7 Shots on Goal 3
6 Shots off Goal 7
7 Blocked Shots 9
13 Shots insidebox 11
7 Shots outsidebox 8
2 Goalkeeper Saves 4
589 Total passes 405
489 Passes accurate 316
1.99 expected_goals 0.98
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Southampton
Formation
Middlesbrough
D. Peretz
D. Peretz
J. Bree
J. Bree
T. Harwood-Bellis
🎯
T. Harwood-Bellis
N. Wood
N. Wood
R. Manning
R. Manning
S. Charles
S. Charles
C. Jander
C. Jander
F. Azaz
F. Azaz
K. Matsuki
K. Matsuki
R. Stewart
R. Stewart
L. Scienza
L. Scienza
S. Brynn
S. Brynn
L. Ayling
L. Ayling
D. Fry
D. Fry
A. Malanda
A. Malanda
C. Brittain
🎯
C. Brittain
A. Morris
A. Morris
R. McGree
R. McGree
M. Targett
M. Targett
M. Whittaker
M. Whittaker
T. Conway
T. Conway
D. Strelec
D. Strelec
Southampton 4-2-2-2
Starting XI
41
D. Peretz
🟨 120+3'
G
14
J. Bree
D
6
T. Harwood-Bellis
🎯 116'
D
15
N. Wood
🟨 37'
D
3
R. Manning
D
24
S. Charles
⚽ 116'
M
20
C. Jander
↓ 119'
M
10
F. Azaz
🟨 56'
M
27
K. Matsuki
↓ 66'
M
11
R. Stewart
⚽ 45' ↓ 84'
F
13
L. Scienza
↓ 85'
F
Substitutes
25
G. Long
G
9
C. Larin
↑ 84' 🟨 120+6'
F
4
F. Downes
↑ 66'
M
34
Welington
↑ 119'
D
5
J. Stephens
D
19
C. Archer
F
18
T. Fellows
M
23
S. Edozie
↑ 85'
M
48
C. Bragg
↑ 119'
M
Middlesbrough 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
31
S. Brynn
G
12
L. Ayling
↓ 119' 🟨 38'
D
6
D. Fry
D
29
A. Malanda
🟨 78'
D
2
C. Brittain
🎯 5' 🟨 92'
M
18
A. Morris
M
8
R. McGree
⚽ 5' ↓ 105' 🟨 13'
M
3
M. Targett
M
11
M. Whittaker
F
9
T. Conway
↓ 73'
F
13
D. Strelec
↓ 83'
F
Substitutes
32
J. Wildsmith
G
16
A. Browne
↑ 73'
M
25
G. Edmundson
D
45
J. Sarmiento
↑ 105'
M
15
F. Munroe
D
27
S. Hansen
↑ 119'
F
14
A. Gilbert
F
22
S. Silvera
F
23
L. Castledine
↑ 83'
M
Last matches: Southampton
24.07.26
Fri
Southampton
Eintracht Braunschweig
1
0
W
18.07.26
Fri
Southampton
Eastleigh
3
1
W
09.05.26
Cha
Southampton
Middlesbrough
0
0
D
02.05.26
Cha
Southampton
Preston
3
1
W
28.04.26
Cha
Southampton
Ipswich
2
2
D
25.04.26
FA
Southampton
Manchester City
1
2
L
21.04.26
Cha
Southampton
Bristol City
2
2
D
18.04.26
Cha
Southampton
Swansea
2
1
W
14.04.26
Cha
Southampton
Blackburn
3
0
W
11.04.26
Cha
Southampton
Derby
2
1
W
07.04.26
Cha
Southampton
Wrexham
5
1
W
04.04.26
FA
Southampton
Arsenal
2
1
W
21.03.26
Cha
Southampton
Oxford United
2
0
W
18.03.26
Cha
Southampton
Norwich
1
0
W
14.03.26
Cha
Southampton
Coventry
2
1
W
11.03.26
Cha
Southampton
West Brom
1
1
D
08.03.26
FA
Southampton
Fulham
1
0
W
28.02.26
Cha
Southampton
Sheffield Wednesday
3
1
W
24.02.26
Cha
Southampton
QPR
5
0
W
21.02.26
Cha
Southampton
Charlton
1
1
D
Last matches: Middlesbrough
18.07.26
Fri
Middlesbrough
Celtic
1
1
D
23.05.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Hull City
0
1
L
09.05.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Southampton
0
0
D
02.05.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Wrexham
2
2
D
25.04.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Watford
5
1
W
22.04.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Sheffield Wednesday
1
0
W
19.04.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Ipswich
2
2
D
11.04.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Portsmouth
0
1
L
06.04.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Swansea
2
2
D
03.04.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Millwall
1
2
L
21.03.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Blackburn
0
0
D
14.03.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
1
1
D
11.03.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Charlton
0
1
L
08.03.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
QPR
4
0
W
02.03.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Birmingham
3
1
W
24.02.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Leicester
1
1
D
21.02.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Oxford United
0
0
D
16.02.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Coventry
1
3
L
09.02.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Sheffield Utd
2
1
W
31.01.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Norwich
1
0
W
H2H: Southampton vs Middlesbrough
12.05.26
H2H
Southampton
Middlesbrough
2
1
W
09.05.26
H2H
Middlesbrough
Southampton
0
0
D
04.01.26
H2H
Middlesbrough
Southampton
4
0
L
27.09.25
H2H
Southampton
Middlesbrough
1
1
D
29.03.24
H2H
Southampton
Middlesbrough
1
1
D
23.09.23
H2H
Middlesbrough
Southampton
2
1
L
13.05.17
H2H
Middlesbrough
Southampton
1
2
W
11.12.16
H2H
Southampton
Middlesbrough
1
0
W
21.04.12
H2H
Middlesbrough
Southampton
2
1
L
29.10.11
H2H
Southampton
Middlesbrough
3
0
W
Last matches: Southampton
28.04.26
Cha
Southampton
Ipswich
2
2
D
21.04.26
Cha
Southampton
Bristol City
2
2
D
14.04.26
Cha
Southampton
Blackburn
3
0
W
11.04.26
Cha
Southampton
Derby
2
1
W
04.04.26
FA
Southampton
Arsenal
2
1
W
21.03.26
Cha
Southampton
Oxford United
2
0
W
18.03.26
Cha
Southampton
Norwich
1
0
W
24.02.26
Cha
Southampton
QPR
5
0
W
21.02.26
Cha
Southampton
Charlton
1
1
D
14.02.26
FA
Southampton
Leicester
2
1
W
07.02.26
Cha
Southampton
Watford
1
0
W
21.01.26
Cha
Southampton
Sheffield Utd
1
0
W
17.01.26
Cha
Southampton
Hull City
1
2
L
01.01.26
Cha
Southampton
Millwall
0
0
D
20.12.25
Cha
Southampton
Coventry
1
1
D
09.12.25
Cha
Southampton
West Brom
3
2
W
06.12.25
Cha
Southampton
Birmingham
3
1
W
25.11.25
Cha
Southampton
Leicester
3
0
W
08.11.25
Cha
Southampton
Sheffield Wednesday
3
1
W
01.11.25
Cha
Southampton
Preston
0
2
L
H2H at home: Southampton
12.05.26
H2H
Southampton
Middlesbrough
2
1
W
27.09.25
H2H
Southampton
Middlesbrough
1
1
D
29.03.24
H2H
Southampton
Middlesbrough
1
1
D
11.12.16
H2H
Southampton
Middlesbrough
1
0
W
29.10.11
H2H
Southampton
Middlesbrough
3
0
W
Last matches: Middlesbrough
18.07.26
Fri
Middlesbrough
Celtic
1
1
D
23.05.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Hull City
0
1
L
02.05.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Wrexham
2
2
D
19.04.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Ipswich
2
2
D
06.04.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Swansea
2
2
D
21.03.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Blackburn
0
0
D
08.03.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
QPR
4
0
W
02.03.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Birmingham
3
1
W
16.02.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Coventry
1
3
L
09.02.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Sheffield Utd
2
1
W
21.01.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Stoke City
2
1
W
16.01.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
West Brom
3
2
W
10.01.26
FA
Middlesbrough
Fulham
1
3
L
01.01.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Derby
0
1
L
20.12.25
Cha
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
0
2
L
09.12.25
Cha
Middlesbrough
Charlton
2
1
W
05.12.25
Cha
Middlesbrough
Hull City
4
1
W
22.11.25
Cha
Middlesbrough
Oxford United
1
1
D
04.11.25
Cha
Middlesbrough
Leicester
1
1
D
01.11.25
Cha
Middlesbrough
Watford
0
3
L
H2H away: Middlesbrough
12.05.26
H2H
Southampton
Middlesbrough
2
1
L
27.09.25
H2H
Southampton
Middlesbrough
1
1
D
29.03.24
H2H
Southampton
Middlesbrough
1
1
D
11.12.16
H2H
Southampton
Middlesbrough
1
0
L
29.10.11
H2H
Southampton
Middlesbrough
3
0
L

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 28 11 7 97:45 52 95
W W W D D
2 46 23 15 8 80:47 33 84
W D D W D
3 46 24 11 11 64:49 15 83
L D W D W
4 46 22 14 10 82:56 26 80
W D W D D
5 46 22 14 10 72:47 25 80
L L D D W
6 46 21 10 15 70:66 4 73
W W D W L
7 46 19 14 13 69:65 4 71
D L W W L
8 46 20 9 17 67:59 8 69
L W L W L
9 46 19 8 19 63:56 7 65
L D W W L
10 46 17 13 16 57:56 1 64
D W W D W
11 46 18 10 18 57:59 -2 64
W D W L W
12 46 17 11 18 59:59 0 62
W L D L D
13 46 18 6 22 66:66 0 60
W L L W W
14 46 15 15 16 55:62 -7 60
L W L L W
15 46 16 10 20 61:73 -12 58
L L L L D
16 46 14 15 17 53:65 -12 57
L L L L L
17 46 15 10 21 51:56 -5 55
L L L L D
18 46 14 13 19 49:64 -15 55
D W L W W
19 46 13 14 19 44:58 -14 53
L W L D L
20 46 13 13 20 42:56 -14 52
L W D L D
21 46 13 14 19 48:58 -10 51
L D W W D
22 46 11 14 21 45:59 -14 47
L W L L W
23 46 12 16 18 58:68 -10 46
W D D L L
24 46 2 12 32 29:89 -60 0
W L L D D
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation

Missing Players

Southampton 3 missing
-
M. Roerslev Rasmussen
Missing Fixture Achilles Tendon Injury
OUT
-
A. McCarthy
Missing Fixture Wrist Injury
OUT
-
J. Stephens
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
Middlesbrough 4 missing
-
A. Jones
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
D. Lenihan
Missing Fixture Achilles Tendon Injury
OUT
-
H. Hackney
Missing Fixture Calf Injury
OUT
-
A. Bangura
Questionable Injury
OUT