Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | No Draw |
82.7%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS Yes |
79.5%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
63.6%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
- |
Southampton
Middlesbrough
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Southampton
52 matches
Middlesbrough
48 matches
| Southampton | Statistic | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | Wins | 22 |
| 15 | Draws | 15 |
| 11 | Losses | 11 |
| 91 | Goals For | 73 |
| 62 | Goals Against | 50 |
| 1.75 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.52 |
| 1.19 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.04 |
| 37 | BTTS Yes | 27 |
| 44 | Over 1.5 | 33 |
| 33 | Over 2.5 | 26 |
| 17 | Over 3.5 | 15 |
| 13 | Clean Sheets | 14 |
| 6 | Failed To Score | 12 |
| 5.1 | Shots On Goal | 4.96 |
| 13.73 | Total Shots | 16.04 |
| 5.52 | Corners | 6.81 |
| 54.7% | Ball Possession | 59.3% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This tie brings together two sides with a fairly similar football identity, with the knockout context adding extra pressure to every phase of the game. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. The first leg ended level at 0-0, so the tie remains finely balanced going into this match. In the previous meeting, Middlesbrough controlled more possession in the first leg (64% against 36%). Middlesbrough carried the greater threat on target, finishing with 5 shots on goal compared to 0. Middlesbrough circulated the ball more often, making 568 passes to 328 and completing 481. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Middlesbrough. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Southampton expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Middlesbrough in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Middlesbrough having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.
Ahead of this knockout test, Southampton arrive from a league campaign that has them 4 with 80 points after 46 matches. With 22 wins, 14 draws, and 10 losses plus a goal ratio of 82:56, they bring mixed form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on A. Armstrong (11 goals), F. Azaz (11 goals), C. Larin (8 goals), with creative support from L. Scienza (10 assists), F. Azaz (8 assists), R. Manning (6 assists), while defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the return of 12 wins, 8 draws, and 3 losses suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with M. Roerslev Rasmussen, A. McCarthy, J. Stephens unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.
Ahead of this knockout test, Middlesbrough arrive from a league campaign that has them 5 with 80 points after 46 matches. Their record of 22 wins, 14 draws, and 10 defeats with goals at 72:47 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on M. Whittaker (14 goals), Tommy Conway (13 goals), D. Strelec (8 goals), with creative support from M. Whittaker (7 assists), H. Hackney (7 assists), Tommy Conway (5 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 10 wins, 8 draws, and 5 losses, which supports a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football. Although they are without A. Jones, D. Lenihan, H. Hackney, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.
Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Southampton won 4 times, Middlesbrough won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:12 from Southampton's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.
Southampton
7
3
6
7
7
9
Lineups
Southampton
Eintracht Braunschweig
Southampton
Eastleigh
Southampton
Middlesbrough
Southampton
Preston
Southampton
Ipswich
Southampton
Manchester City
Southampton
Bristol City
Southampton
Swansea
Southampton
Blackburn
Southampton
Derby
Southampton
Wrexham
Southampton
Arsenal
Southampton
Oxford United
Southampton
Norwich
Southampton
Coventry
Southampton
West Brom
Southampton
Fulham
Southampton
Sheffield Wednesday
Southampton
QPR
Southampton
Charlton
Middlesbrough
Celtic
Middlesbrough
Hull City
Middlesbrough
Southampton
Middlesbrough
Wrexham
Middlesbrough
Watford
Middlesbrough
Sheffield Wednesday
Middlesbrough
Ipswich
Middlesbrough
Portsmouth
Middlesbrough
Swansea
Middlesbrough
Millwall
Middlesbrough
Blackburn
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
Middlesbrough
Charlton
Middlesbrough
QPR
Middlesbrough
Birmingham
Middlesbrough
Leicester
Middlesbrough
Oxford United
Middlesbrough
Coventry
Middlesbrough
Sheffield Utd
Middlesbrough
Norwich
Southampton
Ipswich
Southampton
Bristol City
Southampton
Blackburn
Southampton
Derby
Southampton
Arsenal
Southampton
Oxford United
Southampton
Norwich
Southampton
QPR
Southampton
Charlton
Southampton
Leicester
Southampton
Watford
Southampton
Sheffield Utd
Southampton
Hull City
Southampton
Millwall
Southampton
Coventry
Southampton
West Brom
Southampton
Birmingham
Southampton
Leicester
Southampton
Sheffield Wednesday
Southampton
Preston
Middlesbrough
Celtic
Middlesbrough
Hull City
Middlesbrough
Wrexham
Middlesbrough
Ipswich
Middlesbrough
Swansea
Middlesbrough
Blackburn
Middlesbrough
QPR
Middlesbrough
Birmingham
Middlesbrough
Coventry
Middlesbrough
Sheffield Utd
Middlesbrough
Stoke City
Middlesbrough
West Brom
Middlesbrough
Fulham
Middlesbrough
Derby
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
Middlesbrough
Charlton
Middlesbrough
Hull City
Middlesbrough
Oxford United
Middlesbrough
Leicester
Middlesbrough
Watford
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46 | 28 | 11 | 7 | 97:45 | 52 | 95 |
W
W
W
D
D
|
|
| 2 | 46 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 80:47 | 33 | 84 |
W
D
D
W
D
|
|
| 3 | 46 | 24 | 11 | 11 | 64:49 | 15 | 83 |
L
D
W
D
W
|
|
| 4 |
Southampton
Home
|
46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 82:56 | 26 | 80 |
W
D
W
D
D
|
| 5 |
Middlesbrough
Away
|
46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 72:47 | 25 | 80 |
L
L
D
D
W
|
| 6 | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 70:66 | 4 | 73 |
W
W
D
W
L
|
|
| 7 | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 69:65 | 4 | 71 |
D
L
W
W
L
|
|
| 8 | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 67:59 | 8 | 69 |
L
W
L
W
L
|
|
| 9 | 46 | 19 | 8 | 19 | 63:56 | 7 | 65 |
L
D
W
W
L
|
|
| 10 | 46 | 17 | 13 | 16 | 57:56 | 1 | 64 |
D
W
W
D
W
|
|
| 11 | 46 | 18 | 10 | 18 | 57:59 | -2 | 64 |
W
D
W
L
W
|
|
| 12 | 46 | 17 | 11 | 18 | 59:59 | 0 | 62 |
W
L
D
L
D
|
|
| 13 | 46 | 18 | 6 | 22 | 66:66 | 0 | 60 |
W
L
L
W
W
|
|
| 14 | 46 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 55:62 | -7 | 60 |
L
W
L
L
W
|
|
| 15 | 46 | 16 | 10 | 20 | 61:73 | -12 | 58 |
L
L
L
L
D
|
|
| 16 | 46 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 53:65 | -12 | 57 |
L
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 17 | 46 | 15 | 10 | 21 | 51:56 | -5 | 55 |
L
L
L
L
D
|
|
| 18 | 46 | 14 | 13 | 19 | 49:64 | -15 | 55 |
D
W
L
W
W
|
|
| 19 | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 44:58 | -14 | 53 |
L
W
L
D
L
|
|
| 20 | 46 | 13 | 13 | 20 | 42:56 | -14 | 52 |
L
W
D
L
D
|
|
| 21 | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 48:58 | -10 | 51 |
L
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 22 | 46 | 11 | 14 | 21 | 45:59 | -14 | 47 |
L
W
L
L
W
|
|
| 23 | 46 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 58:68 | -10 | 46 |
W
D
D
L
L
|
|
| 24 | 46 | 2 | 12 | 32 | 29:89 | -60 | 0 |
W
L
L
D
D
|