AUSTRALIA VICTORIA NPL
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 65.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
65.9%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
South Melbourne Win 43.4%
Draw 22.5%
St. Albans Saints Win 34.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
South Melbourne1.61
St. Albans Saints1.34
Recent Form (Last 5)
South Melbourne South Melbourne
WWDLW
33 GF / 33 GA
St. Albans Saints St. Albans Saints
WLDWL
27 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
1.5
Average Goals Scored
1.23
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.77
9
BTTS Yes
13
15
Over 2.5
14
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

South Melbourne South Melbourne 22 matches
St. Albans Saints St. Albans Saints 22 matches
South Melbourne Statistic St. Albans Saints
11 Wins 7
2 Draws 6
9 Losses 9
33 Goals For 27
33 Goals Against 39
1.5 Avg Goals Scored 1.23
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.77
9 BTTS Yes 13
18 Over 1.5 17
15 Over 2.5 14
7 Over 3.5 9
8 Clean Sheets 4
6 Failed To Score 6
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward St. Albans Saints having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors St. Albans Saints.

South Melbourne Analysis

Operating from 5 place with 35 points from 22 games, South Melbourne bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 11 wins, 2 draws, and 9 defeats, together with goals at 33:33, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, the split of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 7 losses supports the view of a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward a more cautious and defensive approach.

St. Albans Saints Analysis

St. Albans Saints sit 10 with 27 points after 22 league matches. The record of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 27:39 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, South Melbourne won 8 times, St. Albans Saints won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:8 from South Melbourne's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 3.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (77.5%)
H2H summary: South Melbourne wins 8, draws 1, St. Albans Saints wins 1
Last matches: South Melbourne
24.07.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Oakleigh Cannons
2
1
W
18.07.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Preston Lions
0
0
D
10.07.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Dandenong City
2
0
W
05.07.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Dandenong Thunder
1
0
W
28.06.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Green Gully
1
2
L
19.06.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Bentleigh Greens
5
1
W
07.06.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Altona Magic
2
3
L
30.05.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Hume City
1
1
D
25.05.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Avondale
0
4
L
18.05.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Sunshine Georgies
0
4
L
08.05.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Heidelberg United
0
4
L
01.05.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Melbourne City II
1
2
L
24.04.26
Vic
South Melbourne
St. Albans Saints
4
0
W
19.04.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Oakleigh Cannons
0
3
L
11.04.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Preston Lions
3
0
W
31.03.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Dandenong City
4
2
W
21.03.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Dandenong Thunder
0
3
L
13.03.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Green Gully
1
0
W
07.03.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Bentleigh Greens
1
0
W
28.02.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Altona Magic
2
1
W
Last matches: St. Albans Saints
24.07.26
Vic
St. Albans Saints
Hume City
3
2
W
18.07.26
Vic
St. Albans Saints
Avondale
1
1
D
12.07.26
Vic
St. Albans Saints
Sunshine Georgies
2
2
D
03.07.26
Vic
St. Albans Saints
Heidelberg United
1
1
D
26.06.26
Vic
St. Albans Saints
Melbourne City II
0
2
L
21.06.26
Vic
St. Albans Saints
Altona Magic
2
1
W
05.06.26
Vic
St. Albans Saints
Oakleigh Cannons
2
2
D
31.05.26
Vic
St. Albans Saints
Preston Lions
0
1
L
22.05.26
Vic
St. Albans Saints
Dandenong City
1
2
L
16.05.26
Vic
St. Albans Saints
Dandenong Thunder
2
2
D
08.05.26
Vic
St. Albans Saints
Green Gully
1
0
W
01.05.26
Vic
St. Albans Saints
Bentleigh Greens
4
2
W
24.04.26
Vic
St. Albans Saints
South Melbourne
0
4
L
18.04.26
Vic
St. Albans Saints
Hume City
1
0
W
10.04.26
Vic
St. Albans Saints
Avondale
2
3
L
28.03.26
Vic
St. Albans Saints
Sunshine Georgies
1
2
L
22.03.26
Vic
St. Albans Saints
Heidelberg United
2
1
W
14.03.26
Vic
St. Albans Saints
Melbourne City II
0
5
L
07.03.26
Vic
St. Albans Saints
Altona Magic
1
0
W
27.02.26
Vic
St. Albans Saints
Oakleigh Cannons
1
3
L
H2H: South Melbourne vs St. Albans Saints
24.04.26
H2H
St. Albans Saints
South Melbourne
0
4
W
06.06.25
H2H
St. Albans Saints
South Melbourne
2
2
D
03.03.25
H2H
South Melbourne
St. Albans Saints
0
3
L
18.08.24
H2H
South Melbourne
St. Albans Saints
2
1
W
12.05.24
H2H
St. Albans Saints
South Melbourne
1
4
W
20.06.23
H2H
South Melbourne
St. Albans Saints
4
0
W
26.03.23
H2H
St. Albans Saints
South Melbourne
0
1
W
11.06.22
H2H
South Melbourne
St. Albans Saints
4
0
W
13.03.22
H2H
St. Albans Saints
South Melbourne
1
4
W
18.07.21
H2H
St. Albans Saints
South Melbourne
0
0
D
17.04.21
H2H
South Melbourne
St. Albans Saints
2
0
W
07.08.20
H2H
South Melbourne
St. Albans Saints
0
0
D
Last matches: South Melbourne
18.07.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Preston Lions
0
0
D
05.07.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Dandenong Thunder
1
0
W
28.06.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Green Gully
1
2
L
07.06.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Altona Magic
2
3
L
25.05.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Avondale
0
4
L
18.05.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Sunshine Georgies
0
4
L
01.05.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Melbourne City II
1
2
L
19.04.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Oakleigh Cannons
0
3
L
31.03.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Dandenong City
4
2
W
07.03.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Bentleigh Greens
1
0
W
19.02.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Hume City
1
2
L
06.12.25
Aus
South Melbourne
Marconi Stallions
2
0
W
29.11.25
Aus
South Melbourne
Heidelberg United
1
0
W
23.11.25
Aus
South Melbourne
NWS Spirit
2
0
W
08.11.25
Aus
South Melbourne
Broadmeadow Magic
2
0
W
19.10.25
Aus
South Melbourne
Moreton City Excelsior
2
0
W
10.10.25
Aus
South Melbourne
Sydney Olympic
3
2
W
H2H at home: South Melbourne
03.03.25
H2H
South Melbourne
St. Albans Saints
0
3
L
18.08.24
H2H
South Melbourne
St. Albans Saints
2
1
W
20.06.23
H2H
South Melbourne
St. Albans Saints
4
0
W
11.06.22
H2H
South Melbourne
St. Albans Saints
4
0
W
17.04.21
H2H
South Melbourne
St. Albans Saints
2
0
W
07.08.20
H2H
South Melbourne
St. Albans Saints
0
0
D
Last matches: St. Albans Saints
18.07.26
Vic
St. Albans Saints
Avondale
1
1
D
03.07.26
Vic
St. Albans Saints
Heidelberg United
1
1
D
05.06.26
Vic
St. Albans Saints
Oakleigh Cannons
2
2
D
22.05.26
Vic
St. Albans Saints
Dandenong City
1
2
L
16.05.26
Vic
St. Albans Saints
Dandenong Thunder
2
2
D
01.05.26
Vic
St. Albans Saints
Bentleigh Greens
4
2
W
18.04.26
Vic
St. Albans Saints
Hume City
1
0
W
28.03.26
Vic
St. Albans Saints
Sunshine Georgies
1
2
L
14.03.26
Vic
St. Albans Saints
Melbourne City II
0
5
L
07.03.26
Vic
St. Albans Saints
Altona Magic
1
0
W
20.02.26
Vic
St. Albans Saints
Preston Lions
0
3
L
H2H away: St. Albans Saints
03.03.25
H2H
South Melbourne
St. Albans Saints
0
3
W
18.08.24
H2H
South Melbourne
St. Albans Saints
2
1
L
20.06.23
H2H
South Melbourne
St. Albans Saints
4
0
L
11.06.22
H2H
South Melbourne
St. Albans Saints
4
0
L
17.04.21
H2H
South Melbourne
St. Albans Saints
2
0
L
07.08.20
H2H
South Melbourne
St. Albans Saints
0
0
D

Standings

Victoria NPL
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 14 5 3 45:20 25 47
L W W D W
2 21 13 3 5 31:16 15 42
W D W W W
3 22 12 4 6 42:28 14 40
L L L D W
4 22 12 2 8 57:30 27 38
W D L L L
5 22 11 2 9 33:33 0 35
W D W W L
6 22 9 7 6 33:26 7 34
D D D D L
7 22 7 10 5 28:28 0 31
D W D D L
8 21 8 6 7 39:26 13 30
L L D W W
9 22 7 6 9 27:29 -2 27
D L L D W
10 22 7 6 9 27:39 -12 27
W D D D L
11 22 7 5 10 26:36 -10 26
W D W L W
12 22 5 4 13 20:46 -26 19
L W L L L
13 22 4 3 15 23:48 -25 15
L L W L L
14 22 3 5 14 17:43 -26 14
D W L W W