AUSTRALIA VICTORIA NPL
06.09.2026 07:00
Lakeside Stadium
South Melbourne
Match Timeline
Heidelberg United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
3'
B. Juach
South Melbourne
15'
C. Bramwell
Heidelberg United
20'
B. Juach
South Melbourne

South Melbourne vs Heidelberg United Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 70.1%
Odds 1.30
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.68
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
70.1%
1.30
BTTS Yes
67.1%
1.62
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.68
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
3.92
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.40
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.50
Probability Distribution
South Melbourne Win 41.7%
Draw 28.4%
Heidelberg United Win 29.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
South Melbourne1.42
Heidelberg United1.52
Recent Form (Last 5)
South Melbourne South Melbourne
WWDLW
39 GF / 36 GA
Heidelberg United Heidelberg United
WLDWL
42 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
1.5
Average Goals Scored
1.62
1.38
Average Goals Conceded
1.31
10
BTTS Yes
16
17
Over 2.5
16
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

South Melbourne South Melbourne 26 matches
Heidelberg United Heidelberg United 26 matches
South Melbourne Statistic Heidelberg United
13 Wins 11
2 Draws 7
11 Losses 8
39 Goals For 42
36 Goals Against 34
1.5 Avg Goals Scored 1.62
1.38 Avg Goals Conceded 1.31
10 BTTS Yes 16
21 Over 1.5 19
17 Over 2.5 16
7 Over 3.5 8
10 Clean Sheets 8
7 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This tie brings together two sides with a fairly similar football identity, with the knockout context adding extra pressure to every phase of the game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Heidelberg United have the edge after taking the first leg 2-1, leaving South Melbourne needing to respond to a 1-goal deficit. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Heidelberg United. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Heidelberg United having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

South Melbourne Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, South Melbourne arrive from a league campaign that has them 5 with 41 points after 26 matches. With 13 wins, 2 draws, and 11 losses plus a goal ratio of 39:36, they bring good form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on their main attacking players, while defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, their split of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 8 losses fits a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Heidelberg United Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Heidelberg United arrive from a league campaign that has them 6 with 40 points after 26 matches. With 11 wins, 7 draws, and 8 losses plus a goal ratio of 42:34, they bring mixed form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on their main attacking players, while defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 6 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, which supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, South Melbourne won 3 times, Heidelberg United won 9 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:25 from South Melbourne's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (71.6%)
H2H summary: South Melbourne wins 3, draws 2, Heidelberg United wins 9

Standings

Victoria NPL
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 16 6 4 56:24 32 54
L W L W W
2 26 15 6 5 41:19 22 51
L D D W W
3 26 15 4 7 51:36 15 49
L L W W W
4 26 15 2 9 65:34 31 47
W W W W W
5 26 13 2 11 39:36 3 41
L W L L W
6 26 11 7 8 42:34 8 40
L W W L L
7 26 9 11 6 35:34 1 38
W L W D D
8 26 10 7 9 35:31 4 37
W D W W D
9 26 9 7 10 36:43 -7 34
W W D L W
10 26 8 6 12 42:42 0 30
L L L L L
11 26 7 7 12 28:42 -14 28
D L L D W
12 26 6 6 14 27:51 -24 24
L W D D L
13 26 4 6 16 23:52 -29 18
W L L D D
14 26 4 3 19 23:65 -42 15
L L L L L