UKRAINE PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Zirka Stadium
Referee: I. Paskhal
SK Poltava
Match Timeline
Kryvbas KR
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
2'
C. Paraco
Kryvbas KR
7'
A. Seck · Assist: G. Mendoza
Kryvbas KR
8'
I. Kotsyumaka · Assist: V. Odaryuk
SK Poltava
11'
D. Sukhoruchko · Assist: V. Sad
SK Poltava
🟨
12'
Vladyslav Danylenko
SK Poltava
16'
V. Sad
SK Poltava
🟨
29'
Jan Jurčec
Kryvbas KR
🔄
67'
A. Seck ↔ G. Herbert
Kryvbas KR
🔄
81'
D. Sukhoruchko ↔ M. Marusych
SK Poltava
🔄
81'
V. Sad ↔ B. Kobzar
SK Poltava
85'
B. Lin · Assist: G. Mendoza
Kryvbas KR
🔄
86'
Y. Shevchenko Volodymyrovych ↔ V. Mulyk
Kryvbas KR
🔄
88'
A. Doroshenko ↔ D. Plakhtyr
SK Poltava
🟨
90+2'
Bohdan Kobzar
SK Poltava
🟨
90+2'
Igor Kotsyumaka
SK Poltava
🟨
90+1'
Mykyta Minchev
SK Poltava

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 75.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 28.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 14.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
75.4%
-
BTTS BTTS No
28.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
14.7%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
SK Poltava Win 17.9%
Draw 6.7%
Kryvbas KR Win 75.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
SK Poltava1.09
Kryvbas KR2.04
Recent Form (Last 5)
SK Poltava SK Poltava
WWDLW
20 GF / 63 GA
Kryvbas KR Kryvbas KR
WLDWL
43 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
0.8
Average Goals Scored
1.72
2.52
Average Goals Conceded
1.52
13
BTTS Yes
14
16
Over 2.5
17
1.09
Shots on Goal
3.05

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

SK Poltava SK Poltava 25 matches
Kryvbas KR Kryvbas KR 25 matches
SK Poltava Statistic Kryvbas KR
2 Wins 11
5 Draws 7
18 Losses 7
20 Goals For 43
63 Goals Against 38
0.8 Avg Goals Scored 1.72
2.52 Avg Goals Conceded 1.52
13 BTTS Yes 14
23 Over 1.5 20
16 Over 2.5 17
11 Over 3.5 9
1 Clean Sheets 6
11 Failed To Score 8
1.09 Shots On Goal 3.05
4.23 Total Shots 7.27
2.14 Corners 3.5
25.2% Ball Possession 31.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Kryvbas KR's more proactive style and SK Poltava's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Kryvbas KR. Kryvbas KR carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 7 with 40 points while SK Poltava sit 16 on 11, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. SK Poltava have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with SK Poltava expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Kryvbas KR in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Kryvbas KR having the stronger overall control.

SK Poltava Analysis

With 11 points from 25 games and a place of 16, SK Poltava still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 18 defeats with a 20:63 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on M. Marusych (3 goals), V. Odaryuk (3 goals), D. Plakhtyr (2 goals), with creative support from V. Odaryuk (2 assists), A. Doroshenko (2 assists), M. Marusych (1 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Kryvbas KR Analysis

From their first 25 matches, Kryvbas KR have collected 40 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. The record of 11 wins, 7 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 43:38 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through G. Mendoza (10 goals), C. Paraco (7 goals), M. Zaderaka (7 goals), with creative support from G. Mendoza (7 assists), Yehor Tverdokhlib (7 assists), Jan Jurčec (3 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, SK Poltava won 0 times, Kryvbas KR won 0 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:5 from SK Poltava's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 5 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.3%)
Predicted formations: SK Poltava 4-2-3-1 / Kryvbas KR 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: SK Poltava wins 0, draws 2, Kryvbas KR wins 0
Stats
SK Poltava SK Poltava
Kryvbas KR Kryvbas KR
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
9
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
9
Blocked Shots
1
Blocked Shots
4
1 Corner Kicks 8
10 Fouls 16
3 Offsides 0
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 22
6 Shots on Goal 9
3 Shots off Goal 9
1 Blocked Shots 4
9 Shots insidebox 12
1 Shots outsidebox 10
6 Goalkeeper Saves 3
244 Total passes 340
158 Passes accurate 244
1.12 expected_goals 2.77
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

SK Poltava
Formation
Kryvbas KR
M. Minchev
M. Minchev
A. Savenkov
A. Savenkov
V. Pidlepych
V. Pidlepych
O. Veremiyenko
O. Veremiyenko
I. Kotsyumaka
I. Kotsyumaka
A. Doroshenko
A. Doroshenko
V. Danylenko
V. Danylenko
V. Odaryuk
🎯
V. Odaryuk
V. Sad
🎯
V. Sad
O. Vivdych
O. Vivdych
D. Sukhoruchko
D. Sukhoruchko
O. Kemkin
O. Kemkin
J. Jurcec
J. Jurcec
V. Vilivald
V. Vilivald
C. Rojas
C. Rojas
Y. Dibango
Y. Dibango
M. Zaderaka
M. Zaderaka
Y. Shevchenko Volodymyrovych
Y. Shevchenko Volodymyrovych
B. Lin
B. Lin
A. Seck
A. Seck
C. Paraco
C. Paraco
G. Mendoza
🎯
G. Mendoza
SK Poltava 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
M. Minchev
🟨 90+1'
G
12
A. Savenkov
D
5
V. Pidlepych
D
33
O. Veremiyenko
D
95
I. Kotsyumaka
⚽ 8' 🟨 90+2'
D
21
A. Doroshenko
↓ 88'
M
15
V. Danylenko
🟨 12'
M
8
V. Odaryuk
🎯 8'
M
10
V. Sad
⚽ 16' 🎯 11' ↓ 81'
M
88
O. Vivdych
M
38
D. Sukhoruchko
⚽ 11' ↓ 81'
Substitutes
96
D. Yermolov
G
20
Y. Misyura
D
44
D. Plakhtyr
↑ 88'
M
11
O. Pyatov
M
14
M. Marusych
↑ 81'
M
93
B. Kobzar
↑ 81' 🟨 90+2'
M
52
G. Zinyar
F
22
R. Prokopenko
M
Kryvbas KR 4-3-3
Starting XI
12
O. Kemkin
G
2
J. Jurcec
🟨 29'
D
4
V. Vilivald
D
3
C. Rojas
D
55
Y. Dibango
D
94
M. Zaderaka
M
8
Y. Shevchenko Volodymyrovych
↓ 86'
M
18
B. Lin
⚽ 85'
M
14
A. Seck
⚽ 7' ↓ 67'
F
9
C. Paraco
⚽ 2'
F
7
G. Mendoza
🎯 7' 🎯 85'
F
Substitutes
30
V. Makhankov
G
23
D. Sychev
G
5
A. Bekavac
D
21
O. Kamensky
M
15
J. Jones
D
24
V. Mulyk
↑ 86'
F
28
J. Maya
M
20
M. Bodnar
F
25
T. Butenko
F
16
Thiago Borges
D
10
G. Herbert
↑ 67'
M
19
Y. Mayakov
D
Last matches: SK Poltava
23.05.26
Pre
SK Poltava
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
0
0
D
16.05.26
Pre
SK Poltava
Dynamo Kyiv
0
2
L
13.05.26
Pre
SK Poltava
LNZ Cherkasy
0
2
L
10.05.26
Pre
SK Poltava
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
4
L
24.04.26
Pre
SK Poltava
Kolos Kovalivka
0
2
L
17.04.26
Pre
SK Poltava
Obolon'-Brovar
1
1
D
10.04.26
Pre
SK Poltava
Polessya
0
4
L
03.04.26
Pre
SK Poltava
Oleksandria
3
3
D
19.03.26
Pre
SK Poltava
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
0
2
L
13.03.26
Pre
SK Poltava
Karpaty
0
4
L
08.03.26
Pre
SK Poltava
Zorya Luhansk
0
4
L
02.03.26
Pre
SK Poltava
Kudrivka
0
2
L
20.02.26
Pre
SK Poltava
Veres Rivne
2
3
L
13.02.26
Fri
SK Poltava
Bukovyna
0
1
L
06.02.26
Fri
SK Poltava
Inhulets
4
1
W
14.12.25
Pre
SK Poltava
Ruh Lviv
1
2
L
08.12.25
Pre
SK Poltava
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
0
3
L
01.12.25
Pre
SK Poltava
Dynamo Kyiv
2
1
W
21.11.25
Pre
SK Poltava
LNZ Cherkasy
0
2
L
09.11.25
Pre
SK Poltava
Shakhtar Donetsk
1
7
L
Last matches: Kryvbas KR
23.05.26
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Oleksandria
1
1
D
17.05.26
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Shakhtar Donetsk
2
3
L
12.05.26
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Veres Rivne
3
1
W
08.05.26
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Karpaty
1
0
W
26.04.26
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Dynamo Kyiv
5
6
L
19.04.26
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Ruh Lviv
3
0
W
12.04.26
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Kudrivka
2
1
W
05.04.26
Pre
Kryvbas KR
LNZ Cherkasy
0
3
L
21.03.26
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
2
1
W
14.03.26
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Polessya
0
2
L
07.03.26
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Obolon'-Brovar
0
0
D
01.03.26
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Zorya Luhansk
3
1
W
21.02.26
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
0
0
D
12.02.26
Fri
Kryvbas KR
Sogndal
2
1
W
07.02.26
Fri
Kryvbas KR
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
05.02.26
Fri
Kryvbas KR
Brentford U21
0
0
D
24.01.26
Fri
Kryvbas KR
Daejeon Citizen
3
3
D
19.01.26
Fri
Kryvbas KR
Aarhus
2
4
L
15.01.26
Fri
Kryvbas KR
FC Midtjylland
0
3
L
13.12.25
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Kolos Kovalivka
1
1
D
H2H: SK Poltava vs Kryvbas KR
01.05.26
H2H
SK Poltava
Kryvbas KR
3
3
D
01.11.25
H2H
Kryvbas KR
SK Poltava
2
2
D
Last matches: SK Poltava
16.05.26
Pre
SK Poltava
Dynamo Kyiv
0
2
L
10.05.26
Pre
SK Poltava
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
4
L
10.04.26
Pre
SK Poltava
Polessya
0
4
L
03.04.26
Pre
SK Poltava
Oleksandria
3
3
D
13.03.26
Pre
SK Poltava
Karpaty
0
4
L
02.03.26
Pre
SK Poltava
Kudrivka
0
2
L
06.02.26
Fri
SK Poltava
Inhulets
4
1
W
14.12.25
Pre
SK Poltava
Ruh Lviv
1
2
L
08.12.25
Pre
SK Poltava
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
0
3
L
21.11.25
Pre
SK Poltava
LNZ Cherkasy
0
2
L
26.10.25
Pre
SK Poltava
Kolos Kovalivka
2
2
D
17.10.25
Pre
SK Poltava
Obolon'-Brovar
1
2
L
21.09.25
Pre
SK Poltava
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
0
2
L
29.08.25
Pre
SK Poltava
Zorya Luhansk
1
4
L
08.08.25
Pre
SK Poltava
Veres Rivne
1
0
W
H2H at home: SK Poltava
01.05.26
H2H
SK Poltava
Kryvbas KR
3
3
D
Last matches: Kryvbas KR
23.05.26
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Oleksandria
1
1
D
12.05.26
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Veres Rivne
3
1
W
12.04.26
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Kudrivka
2
1
W
14.03.26
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Polessya
0
2
L
07.03.26
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Obolon'-Brovar
0
0
D
21.02.26
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
0
0
D
12.02.26
Fri
Kryvbas KR
Sogndal
2
1
W
07.02.26
Fri
Kryvbas KR
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
19.01.26
Fri
Kryvbas KR
Aarhus
2
4
L
15.01.26
Fri
Kryvbas KR
FC Midtjylland
0
3
L
01.12.25
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Shakhtar Donetsk
2
2
D
08.11.25
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Karpaty
0
1
L
26.10.25
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Dynamo Kyiv
0
4
L
18.10.25
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Ruh Lviv
2
1
W
28.09.25
Pre
Kryvbas KR
LNZ Cherkasy
0
0
D
21.09.25
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
5
4
W
18.08.25
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Zorya Luhansk
3
2
W
01.08.25
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Kolos Kovalivka
1
2
L
H2H away: Kryvbas KR
01.05.26
H2H
SK Poltava
Kryvbas KR
3
3
D

Standings

Premier League: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 22 6 2 71:21 50 72
L W W W W
2 30 18 6 6 39:17 22 60
W L W D D
3 30 18 5 7 51:21 30 59
W D L W W
4 30 17 6 7 66:36 30 57
W W W D L
5 30 13 12 5 36:19 17 51
W D D D L
6 30 13 10 7 30:25 5 49
W L L W W
7 30 13 9 8 53:46 7 48
D L W W D
8 30 12 10 8 42:36 6 46
W D W D W
9 30 10 11 9 40:31 9 41
L W D L D
10 30 8 8 14 36:45 -9 32
D D W D D
11 30 7 10 13 26:40 -14 31
L L L D D
12 30 7 10 13 28:49 -21 31
L W L D D
13 30 7 7 16 32:48 -16 28
L W W L D
14 30 6 3 21 20:51 -31 21
L L L D L
15 30 3 8 19 24:58 -34 17
D W L L L
16 30 2 7 21 23:74 -51 13
D L L L D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - Persha Liga