FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
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OmaSp Stadion

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 43.6%
Odds 2.55
BTTS
Yes
Probability 53.4%
Odds 1.57
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds 1.68
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
43.6%
2.55
BTTS Yes
53.4%
1.57
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
1.68
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
3.85
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.00
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00
Probability Distribution
SJK Win 43.6%
Draw 17.8%
Lahti Win 38.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
SJK1.1
Lahti1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
SJK SJK
WWDLW
30 GF / 35 GA
Lahti Lahti
WLDWL
30 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
1.2
Average Goals Scored
1.25
1.4
Average Goals Conceded
0.96
14
BTTS Yes
12
13
Over 2.5
8
1.55
Shots on Goal
2.05

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

SJK SJK 25 matches
Lahti Lahti 24 matches
SJK Statistic Lahti
6 Wins 8
8 Draws 8
11 Losses 8
30 Goals For 30
35 Goals Against 23
1.2 Avg Goals Scored 1.25
1.4 Avg Goals Conceded 0.96
14 BTTS Yes 12
20 Over 1.5 17
13 Over 2.5 8
7 Over 3.5 4
4 Clean Sheets 8
9 Failed To Score 6
1.55 Shots On Goal 2.05
3.8 Total Shots 6.15
1.65 Corners 2.55
17.5% Ball Possession 28.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Lahti's more proactive style and SJK's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with SJK expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Lahti in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lahti having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. SJK have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Lahti.

SJK Analysis

SJK sit 10 with 18 points after 19 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 6 draws, and 9 defeats, and the 24:29 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on E. Mastokangas (1 goals), with creative support from J. Streng (1 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Lahti Analysis

So far, Lahti have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 26 points from 19 matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 22:16 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Martim Ferreira (1 goals), Tòfol Montiel (1 goals), Y. Cassubie (1 goals), with creative support from Martim Ferreira (1 assists), Tòfol Montiel (1 assists), R. Sans (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, SJK won 4 times, Lahti won 5 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:21 from SJK's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.3%)
Predicted formations: SJK 4-4-2 / Lahti 4-3-3
H2H summary: SJK wins 4, draws 6, Lahti wins 5
Last matches: SJK
15.08.26
Vei
SJK
Mariehamn
0
2
L
07.08.26
Vei
SJK
Gnistan
2
2
D
03.08.26
Vei
SJK
HJK Helsinki
3
0
W
24.07.26
Vei
SJK
FF Jaro
1
2
L
18.07.26
Vei
SJK
KuPS
0
2
L
10.07.26
Vei
SJK
VPS
0
1
L
04.07.26
Vei
SJK
Turku PS
3
1
W
27.06.26
Vei
SJK
Ilves
2
2
D
23.06.26
Vei
SJK
Inter Turku
1
1
D
17.06.26
Vei
SJK
VPS
1
2
L
13.06.26
Vei
SJK
Lahti
3
2
W
30.05.26
Vei
SJK
Gnistan
2
3
L
23.05.26
Vei
SJK
AC Oulu
0
1
L
16.05.26
Vei
SJK
Inter Turku
1
3
L
08.05.26
Vei
SJK
KuPS
0
0
D
02.05.26
Vei
SJK
Ilves
1
1
D
24.04.26
Vei
SJK
FF Jaro
1
1
D
18.04.26
Vei
SJK
Turku PS
0
2
L
10.04.26
Vei
SJK
Mariehamn
3
0
W
04.04.26
Vei
SJK
HJK Helsinki
0
3
L
Last matches: Lahti
16.08.26
Vei
Lahti
KuPS
1
2
L
09.08.26
Vei
Lahti
Inter Turku
0
0
D
01.08.26
Vei
Lahti
FF Jaro
2
0
W
26.07.26
Vei
Lahti
Ilves
0
1
L
20.07.26
Vei
Lahti
Mariehamn
2
0
W
11.07.26
Vei
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
2
0
W
04.07.26
Vei
Lahti
Gnistan
1
0
W
27.06.26
Vei
Lahti
AC Oulu
1
1
D
23.06.26
Vei
Lahti
Turku PS
0
0
D
17.06.26
Vei
Lahti
Gnistan
0
1
L
13.06.26
Vei
Lahti
SJK
2
3
L
30.05.26
Vei
Lahti
Ilves
5
0
W
23.05.26
Vei
Lahti
KuPS
1
2
L
18.05.26
Vei
Lahti
VPS
1
1
D
10.05.26
Vei
Lahti
Mariehamn
1
1
D
04.05.26
Vei
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
25.04.26
Vei
Lahti
AC Oulu
2
1
W
18.04.26
Vei
Lahti
Inter Turku
0
2
L
10.04.26
Vei
Lahti
Turku PS
1
2
L
04.04.26
Vei
Lahti
FF Jaro
1
0
W
H2H: SJK vs Lahti
13.06.26
H2H
Lahti
SJK
2
3
W
27.07.24
H2H
SJK
Lahti
5
5
D
27.05.24
H2H
Lahti
SJK
0
4
W
16.07.23
H2H
Lahti
SJK
1
1
D
22.04.23
H2H
SJK
Lahti
0
0
D
24.07.22
H2H
Lahti
SJK
1
3
W
07.05.22
H2H
SJK
Lahti
1
2
L
26.09.21
H2H
SJK
Lahti
4
1
W
04.07.21
H2H
Lahti
SJK
2
1
L
23.09.20
H2H
SJK
Lahti
0
1
L
08.07.20
H2H
Lahti
SJK
0
0
D
08.02.20
H2H
SJK
Lahti
2
3
L
19.10.19
H2H
SJK
Lahti
0
0
D
26.07.19
H2H
SJK
Lahti
0
2
L
05.05.19
H2H
Lahti
SJK
1
1
D
Last matches: SJK
07.08.26
Vei
SJK
Gnistan
2
2
D
03.08.26
Vei
SJK
HJK Helsinki
3
0
W
18.07.26
Vei
SJK
KuPS
0
2
L
04.07.26
Vei
SJK
Turku PS
3
1
W
17.06.26
Vei
SJK
VPS
1
2
L
23.05.26
Vei
SJK
AC Oulu
0
1
L
16.05.26
Vei
SJK
Inter Turku
1
3
L
02.05.26
Vei
SJK
Ilves
1
1
D
24.04.26
Vei
SJK
FF Jaro
1
1
D
10.04.26
Vei
SJK
Mariehamn
3
0
W
27.03.26
Fri
SJK
KuPS
0
0
D
18.03.26
Fri
SJK
FF Jaro
2
1
W
07.03.26
Fri
SJK
Turku PS
1
1
D
10.07.25
UEF
SJK
KI Klaksvik
1
2
L
H2H at home: SJK
27.07.24
H2H
SJK
Lahti
5
5
D
22.04.23
H2H
SJK
Lahti
0
0
D
07.05.22
H2H
SJK
Lahti
1
2
L
26.09.21
H2H
SJK
Lahti
4
1
W
23.09.20
H2H
SJK
Lahti
0
1
L
08.02.20
H2H
SJK
Lahti
2
3
L
19.10.19
H2H
SJK
Lahti
0
0
D
26.07.19
H2H
SJK
Lahti
0
2
L
Last matches: Lahti
09.08.26
Vei
Lahti
Inter Turku
0
0
D
26.07.26
Vei
Lahti
Ilves
0
1
L
20.07.26
Vei
Lahti
Mariehamn
2
0
W
27.06.26
Vei
Lahti
AC Oulu
1
1
D
17.06.26
Vei
Lahti
Gnistan
0
1
L
23.05.26
Vei
Lahti
KuPS
1
2
L
04.05.26
Vei
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
10.04.26
Vei
Lahti
Turku PS
1
2
L
04.04.26
Vei
Lahti
FF Jaro
1
0
W
H2H away: Lahti
27.07.24
H2H
SJK
Lahti
5
5
D
22.04.23
H2H
SJK
Lahti
0
0
D
07.05.22
H2H
SJK
Lahti
1
2
W
26.09.21
H2H
SJK
Lahti
4
1
L
23.09.20
H2H
SJK
Lahti
0
1
W
08.02.20
H2H
SJK
Lahti
2
3
W
19.10.19
H2H
SJK
Lahti
0
0
D
26.07.19
H2H
SJK
Lahti
0
2
W
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.66
Draw 3.56
Home 2.55
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.19
Draw 2.41
Home 3.07
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.20
Over 2.25 1.48
Over 2.5 1.68
Over 2.75 1.85
Over 3.0 2.10
Over 3.25 2.37
Over 3.5 2.63
Over 4.5 4.64
Under 1.5 4.53
Under 2.25 2.66
Under 2.5 2.22
Under 2.75 2.00
Under 3.0 1.75
Under 3.25 1.60
Under 3.5 1.49
Under 4.5 1.19
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.60
Draw 3.40
Home 2.40
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.20
Draw 2.30
Home 3.00
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.75
Draw 2.60
Home 2.75
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.03
Over 1.5 1.20
Over 2.5 1.67
Over 3.5 2.62
Over 4.5 5.00
Over 5.5 10.00
Over 6.5 21.00
Over 7.5 41.00
Under 0.5 15.00
Under 1.5 4.33
Under 2.5 2.15
Under 3.5 1.44
Under 4.5 1.17
Under 5.5 1.06
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.62
Draw 3.46
Home 2.49
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.20
Draw 2.17
Home 3.02
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.84
Draw 2.61
Home 2.70
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.03
Over 1.0 1.03
Over 1.25 1.07
Over 1.5 1.16
Over 1.75 1.21
Over 2.0 1.26
Over 2.25 1.48
Over 2.5 1.66
Over 2.75 1.83
Over 3.0 2.03
Over 3.25 2.27
Over 3.5 2.54
Over 3.75 2.97
Over 4.0 3.92
Over 4.25 4.30
Over 4.5 4.65
Over 4.75 5.89
Over 5.0 8.30
Over 5.5 9.00
Over 6.5 21.00
Over 7.5 41.00
Under 0.5 11.40
Under 1.0 8.30
Under 1.25 5.87
Under 1.5 4.25
Under 1.75 3.82
Under 2.0 3.36
Under 2.25 2.59
Under 2.5 2.18
Under 2.75 1.94
Under 3.0 1.67
Under 3.25 1.51
Under 3.5 1.41
Under 3.75 1.30
Under 4.0 1.18
Under 4.25 1.15
Under 4.5 1.12
Under 4.75 1.07
Under 5.0 1.01
Under 5.5 1.00
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.60
Draw 3.35
Home 2.40
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.95
Draw 2.25
Home 2.80
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.80
Draw 2.65
Home 2.65
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.19
Over 2.0 1.29
Over 2.5 1.65
Over 3.0 2.10
Over 3.5 2.63
Over 4.0 4.00
Over 4.25 4.35
Over 4.5 4.70
Over 5.0 8.00
Under 1.5 3.95
Under 2.0 3.20
Under 2.5 2.06
Under 3.0 1.63
Under 3.5 1.41
Under 4.0 1.19
Under 4.25 1.16
Under 4.5 1.14
Under 5.0 1.05

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 20 12 7 1 36:18 18 43
W D W W W
2 20 10 8 2 28:16 12 38
W D W L D
3 20 10 4 6 32:23 9 34
W W L W W
4 20 9 5 6 32:26 6 32
W D L W W
5 20 8 6 6 28:21 7 30
L W L L L
6 20 9 3 8 24:25 -1 30
L L W D L
7 20 8 5 7 27:22 5 29
W D W L L
8
Lahti Away
20 7 5 8 23:18 5 26
L D W L W
9 20 7 4 9 33:34 -1 25
L W L W W
10
SJK Home
20 4 6 10 24:31 -7 18
L D W L L
11 20 3 6 11 18:41 -23 15
L L L W D
12 20 1 5 14 11:41 -30 8
W L L D L
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)