FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
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OmaSp Stadion

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 74.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
74.4%
-
BTTS Yes
82.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Under 9.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
SJK Win 21.2%
Draw 4.4%
KuPS Win 74.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
SJK1.08
KuPS1.56
Recent Form (Last 5)
SJK SJK
WWDLW
24 GF / 27 GA
KuPS KuPS
WLDWL
34 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.2
Average Goals Scored
1.7
1.35
Average Goals Conceded
0.9
12
BTTS Yes
11
10
Over 2.5
8
1.8
Shots on Goal
3.2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

SJK SJK 20 matches
KuPS KuPS 20 matches
SJK Statistic KuPS
5 Wins 11
7 Draws 7
8 Losses 2
24 Goals For 34
27 Goals Against 18
1.2 Avg Goals Scored 1.7
1.35 Avg Goals Conceded 0.9
12 BTTS Yes 11
15 Over 1.5 16
10 Over 2.5 8
6 Over 3.5 5
3 Clean Sheets 8
7 Failed To Score 3
1.8 Shots On Goal 3.2
4.2 Total Shots 7.8
1.6 Corners 3.07
19.5% Ball Possession 31.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around KuPS's more proactive style and SJK's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring KuPS. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. KuPS carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 30 points while SJK sit 10 on 14, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with SJK expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and KuPS in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward KuPS having the stronger overall control.

SJK Analysis

So far, SJK have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 14 points from 15 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, while the 18:23 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on E. Mastokangas (1 goals), with creative support from J. Streng (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

KuPS Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 30 points from 15 games, KuPS bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 8 wins, 6 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 27:15, reflects good form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through J. Luyeye-Lutumba (1 goals), with creative support from C. Antwi (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, the split of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, SJK won 1 times, KuPS won 8 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:22 from SJK's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.6%)
Predicted formations: SJK 3-4-1-2 / KuPS 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: SJK wins 1, draws 6, KuPS wins 8
Last matches: SJK
10.07.26
Vei
SJK
VPS
0
1
L
04.07.26
Vei
SJK
Turku PS
3
1
W
27.06.26
Vei
SJK
Ilves
2
2
D
23.06.26
Vei
SJK
Inter Turku
1
1
D
17.06.26
Vei
SJK
VPS
1
2
L
13.06.26
Vei
SJK
Lahti
3
2
W
30.05.26
Vei
SJK
Gnistan
2
3
L
23.05.26
Vei
SJK
AC Oulu
0
1
L
16.05.26
Vei
SJK
Inter Turku
1
3
L
08.05.26
Vei
SJK
KuPS
0
0
D
02.05.26
Vei
SJK
Ilves
1
1
D
24.04.26
Vei
SJK
FF Jaro
1
1
D
18.04.26
Vei
SJK
Turku PS
0
2
L
10.04.26
Vei
SJK
Mariehamn
3
0
W
04.04.26
Vei
SJK
HJK Helsinki
0
3
L
27.03.26
Fri
SJK
KuPS
0
0
D
21.03.26
Fri
SJK
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
18.03.26
Fri
SJK
FF Jaro
2
1
W
14.03.26
Fri
SJK
Gnistan
3
1
W
07.03.26
Fri
SJK
Turku PS
1
1
D
Last matches: KuPS
14.07.26
UEF
KuPS
Vardar Skopje
2
3
L
07.07.26
UEF
KuPS
Vardar Skopje
2
0
W
27.06.26
Vei
KuPS
HJK Helsinki
4
0
W
23.06.26
Vei
KuPS
Ilves
4
3
W
17.06.26
Vei
KuPS
Turku PS
2
1
W
13.06.26
Vei
KuPS
VPS
1
1
D
30.05.26
Vei
KuPS
Inter Turku
1
1
D
23.05.26
Vei
KuPS
Lahti
2
1
W
20.05.26
Vei
KuPS
FF Jaro
3
0
W
16.05.26
Vei
KuPS
Mariehamn
1
1
D
08.05.26
Vei
KuPS
SJK
0
0
D
02.05.26
Vei
KuPS
AC Oulu
0
2
L
26.04.26
Vei
KuPS
HJK Helsinki
1
1
D
22.04.26
Vei
KuPS
AC Oulu
3
2
W
18.04.26
Vei
KuPS
FF Jaro
1
1
D
11.04.26
Vei
KuPS
Gnistan
1
0
W
04.04.26
Vei
KuPS
Ilves
3
1
W
27.03.26
Fri
KuPS
SJK
0
0
D
21.03.26
Fri
KuPS
JIPPO
1
0
W
14.03.26
Fri
KuPS
Mariehamn
2
0
W
H2H: SJK vs KuPS
08.05.26
H2H
KuPS
SJK
0
0
D
27.03.26
H2H
SJK
KuPS
0
0
D
07.02.26
H2H
SJK
KuPS
3
0
W
27.10.25
H2H
SJK
KuPS
0
1
L
23.09.25
H2H
KuPS
SJK
3
2
L
31.08.25
H2H
SJK
KuPS
1
1
D
02.05.25
H2H
KuPS
SJK
1
0
L
15.02.25
H2H
SJK
KuPS
1
3
L
05.10.24
H2H
SJK
KuPS
0
1
L
22.08.24
H2H
SJK
KuPS
2
2
D
04.08.24
H2H
KuPS
SJK
2
1
L
04.05.24
H2H
SJK
KuPS
1
1
D
17.02.24
H2H
SJK
KuPS
1
3
L
01.10.23
H2H
KuPS
SJK
1
1
D
20.08.23
H2H
KuPS
SJK
3
0
L
Last matches: SJK
04.07.26
Vei
SJK
Turku PS
3
1
W
17.06.26
Vei
SJK
VPS
1
2
L
23.05.26
Vei
SJK
AC Oulu
0
1
L
16.05.26
Vei
SJK
Inter Turku
1
3
L
02.05.26
Vei
SJK
Ilves
1
1
D
24.04.26
Vei
SJK
FF Jaro
1
1
D
10.04.26
Vei
SJK
Mariehamn
3
0
W
27.03.26
Fri
SJK
KuPS
0
0
D
18.03.26
Fri
SJK
FF Jaro
2
1
W
07.03.26
Fri
SJK
Turku PS
1
1
D
10.07.25
UEF
SJK
KI Klaksvik
1
2
L
H2H at home: SJK
27.03.26
H2H
SJK
KuPS
0
0
D
07.02.26
H2H
SJK
KuPS
3
0
W
27.10.25
H2H
SJK
KuPS
0
1
L
31.08.25
H2H
SJK
KuPS
1
1
D
15.02.25
H2H
SJK
KuPS
1
3
L
05.10.24
H2H
SJK
KuPS
0
1
L
22.08.24
H2H
SJK
KuPS
2
2
D
04.05.24
H2H
SJK
KuPS
1
1
D
17.02.24
H2H
SJK
KuPS
1
3
L
Last matches: KuPS
07.07.26
UEF
KuPS
Vardar Skopje
2
0
W
27.06.26
Vei
KuPS
HJK Helsinki
4
0
W
17.06.26
Vei
KuPS
Turku PS
2
1
W
13.06.26
Vei
KuPS
VPS
1
1
D
16.05.26
Vei
KuPS
Mariehamn
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vei
KuPS
AC Oulu
0
2
L
18.04.26
Vei
KuPS
FF Jaro
1
1
D
04.04.26
Vei
KuPS
Ilves
3
1
W
27.03.26
Fri
KuPS
SJK
0
0
D
26.02.26
UEF
KuPS
Lech Poznan
0
1
L
18.12.25
UEF
KuPS
Crystal Palace
2
2
D
27.11.25
UEF
KuPS
Jagiellonia
0
1
L
23.10.25
UEF
KuPS
Breidablik
0
0
D
21.08.25
UEF
KuPS
FC Midtjylland
0
4
L
06.08.25
UEF
KuPS
Rīgas FS
2
1
W
29.07.25
UEF
KuPS
Kairat Almaty
0
3
L
15.07.25
UEF
KuPS
Milsami Orhei
0
0
D
H2H away: KuPS
27.03.26
H2H
SJK
KuPS
0
0
D
07.02.26
H2H
SJK
KuPS
3
0
L
27.10.25
H2H
SJK
KuPS
0
1
W
31.08.25
H2H
SJK
KuPS
1
1
D
15.02.25
H2H
SJK
KuPS
1
3
W
05.10.24
H2H
SJK
KuPS
0
1
W
22.08.24
H2H
SJK
KuPS
2
2
D
04.05.24
H2H
SJK
KuPS
1
1
D
17.02.24
H2H
SJK
KuPS
1
3
W

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1
KuPS Away
15 8 6 1 27:15 12 30
W W W D D
2 15 8 6 1 23:12 11 30
W D D D D
3 15 7 6 2 22:11 11 27
W W D W W
4 15 8 2 5 20:18 2 26
L D L W D
5 15 6 4 5 25:19 6 22
L L W D W
6 15 6 4 5 23:20 3 22
W L D D W
7 15 6 4 5 19:16 3 22
W L W D L
8 15 5 4 6 18:15 3 19
W W D D L
9 15 4 4 7 25:29 -4 16
L D L W W
10
SJK Home
15 3 5 7 18:23 -5 14
L W D D L
11 15 2 5 8 15:32 -17 11
W L D L L
12 15 0 4 11 8:33 -25 4
L L L L L
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)