NIGERIA NPFL
03.05.2026 15:00
Lekan Salami Stadium
Shooting Stars
Match Timeline
Nasarawa United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
4'
L. Emmanuel
Shooting Stars
24'
L. Emmanuel
Shooting Stars
42'
J. Istifanus
Nasarawa United
55'
H. Alakija
Nasarawa United
77'
Q. Adegoke
Shooting Stars

Shooting Stars vs Nasarawa United Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 79.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 52%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 62.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
79.6%
-
BTTS BTTS No
52%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
62.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Shooting Stars Win 79.6%
Draw 13.2%
Nasarawa United Win 7.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Shooting Stars0.96
Nasarawa United1.01
Recent Form (Last 5)
Shooting Stars Shooting Stars
WWDLW
37 GF / 37 GA
Nasarawa United Nasarawa United
WLDWL
34 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
1.06
Average Goals Scored
0.97
1.06
Average Goals Conceded
0.8
14
BTTS Yes
12
12
Over 2.5
10
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Shooting Stars Shooting Stars 35 matches
Nasarawa United Nasarawa United 35 matches
Shooting Stars Statistic Nasarawa United
16 Wins 15
6 Draws 8
13 Losses 12
37 Goals For 34
37 Goals Against 28
1.06 Avg Goals Scored 0.97
1.06 Avg Goals Conceded 0.8
14 BTTS Yes 12
21 Over 1.5 18
12 Over 2.5 10
4 Over 3.5 1
9 Clean Sheets 12
14 Failed To Score 14
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Nasarawa United's more proactive style and Shooting Stars's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Nasarawa United arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Nasarawa United. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Nasarawa United having the stronger overall control.

Shooting Stars Analysis

So far, Shooting Stars have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 54 points from 35 matches. The record of 16 wins, 6 draws, and 13 defeats, together with a 37:37 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through S. Ibrahim (9 goals), Q. Adegoke (8 goals), I. Ayodele (4 goals), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of 13 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses fits a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Nasarawa United Analysis

Nasarawa United sit 5 with 53 points after 35 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 15 wins, 9 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 34:28, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through A. Yusuf (7 goals), J. Istifanus (4 goals), J. John (3 goals), with creative support from A. Yusuf (1 assists), J. John (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 10 losses points to a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Shooting Stars won 6 times, Nasarawa United won 5 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:10 from Shooting Stars's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.92 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (92.8%)
H2H summary: Shooting Stars wins 6, draws 1, Nasarawa United wins 5

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 19 11 8 47:27 20 68
W W W W D
2 38 19 10 9 44:31 13 67
W W W L W
3 38 18 6 14 41:40 1 60
L W W W D
4 38 16 10 12 43:39 4 58
L L W L W
5 38 16 8 14 37:34 3 56
L W L W L
6 38 16 7 15 31:34 -3 55
L L L W L
7 37 13 14 10 43:38 5 53
D L W W W
8 38 13 13 12 34:30 4 52
W L W L W
9 37 14 10 13 36:38 -2 52
L W L W L
10 38 15 6 17 37:39 -2 51
L W L W L
11 38 15 5 18 39:40 -1 50
W L L D L
12 38 13 11 14 35:36 -1 50
L W D W D
13 38 13 10 15 44:42 2 49
W L W L W
14 38 13 10 15 42:43 -1 49
W W W D W
15 38 13 10 15 36:41 -5 49
W L W L L
16 38 13 9 16 37:36 1 48
W D D L D
17 38 14 5 19 42:47 -5 47
D W L W L
18 38 13 8 17 30:46 -16 47
L D L L W
19 38 11 10 17 37:42 -5 43
W L L L L
20 38 9 13 16 36:48 -12 40
L L L L W
Champions League
CAF Confederation Cup
Relegation