JAPAN J1 LEAGUE
19.09.2026 09:30
IAI Stadium Nihondaira

Shimizu S-pulse vs JEF United Chiba Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 84.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
84.4%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
77.3%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Shimizu S-pulse Win 44.3%
Draw 40.1%
JEF United Chiba Win 15.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Shimizu S-pulse1.26
JEF United Chiba0.92
Recent Form (Last 5)
Shimizu S-pulse Shimizu S-pulse
WWDLW
4 GF / 7 GA
JEF United Chiba JEF United Chiba
WLDWL
6 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
0.57
Average Goals Scored
0.86
1
Average Goals Conceded
2.29
2
BTTS Yes
3
1
Over 2.5
4
3.29
Shots on Goal
3.71

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Shimizu S-pulse Shimizu S-pulse 7 matches
JEF United Chiba JEF United Chiba 7 matches
Shimizu S-pulse Statistic JEF United Chiba
2 Wins 1
1 Draws 1
4 Losses 5
4 Goals For 6
7 Goals Against 16
0.57 Avg Goals Scored 0.86
1 Avg Goals Conceded 2.29
2 BTTS Yes 3
2 Over 1.5 7
1 Over 2.5 4
1 Over 3.5 2
2 Clean Sheets 1
3 Failed To Score 3
3.29 Shots On Goal 3.71
10.86 Total Shots 9.86
4.71 Corners 2.29
41.3% Ball Possession 45%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward JEF United Chiba. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Shimizu S-pulse expected to line up in 4-3-3 and JEF United Chiba in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward JEF United Chiba having the stronger overall control.

Shimizu S-pulse Analysis

Shimizu S-pulse approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 4 points from 6 matches. The overall return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 4 defeats with a 3:7 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on Koya Kitagawa (1 goals), K. Kinoshita (1 goals), Oh Se-Hun (1 goals), with creative support from T. Fujii (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

JEF United Chiba Analysis

With 3 points from 6 games and a place of 20, JEF United Chiba still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 5 defeats with a 5:15 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on T. Tsukui (1 goals), K. Yamura (1 goals), K. Tanaka (1 goals), with creative support from T. Taguchi (1 assists), R. Ishio (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Shimizu S-pulse won 3 times, JEF United Chiba won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:8 from Shimizu S-pulse's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 3.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (84.4%)
Predicted formations: Shimizu S-pulse 4-3-3 / JEF United Chiba 4-4-2
H2H summary: Shimizu S-pulse wins 3, draws 2, JEF United Chiba wins 1

Standings

J-League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 5 2 0 19:6 13 17
D W W D W
2 7 5 1 1 11:5 6 16
W W W W L
3 7 5 0 2 13:10 3 15
W L L W W
4 7 4 2 1 19:6 13 14
W L W D D
5 7 4 2 1 13:8 5 14
W W D W W
6 7 4 1 2 10:8 2 13
W W W L D
7 7 3 3 1 13:9 4 12
W W L W D
8 7 4 0 3 14:13 1 12
L L L W W
9 7 3 2 2 11:9 2 11
D W D L W
10 7 3 1 3 6:11 -5 10
L D W L W
11 7 2 3 2 11:9 2 9
L D W D W
12 7 3 0 4 13:17 -4 9
L W W W L
13 7 2 1 4 4:7 -3 7
W L D L L
14 7 2 1 4 9:14 -5 7
W L D L L
15 7 1 3 3 8:13 -5 6
L L D D L
16 7 2 0 5 7:13 -6 6
L L L W W
17 7 1 2 4 9:14 -5 5
L L D W L
18 7 1 1 5 9:11 -2 4
L D L L L
19 7 0 4 3 3:9 -6 4
D D L L D
20 7 1 1 5 6:16 -10 4
D W L L L
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League