IRELAND PREMIER DIVISION
--.--.---- --:--
Tolka Park
Shelbourne
Match Timeline
Dundalk
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
4'
J. Wilson · Assist: D. Horgan
Dundalk
🟨
16'
P. Barrett
Shelbourne
🟨
17'
R. Teahan
Dundalk
🟨
37'
K. Buckley
Dundalk
39'
D. Kelly · Assist: J. Norris
Shelbourne
41'
H. Wood · Assist: R. Freitas
Shelbourne
🟨
48'
J. Henry-Francis
Shelbourne
🔄
62'
O. Casey ↔ K. Ledwidge
Shelbourne
🔄
64'
D. McDaid ↔ T. Clarke
Dundalk
🔄
64'
T. Wilson ↔ M. Animasahun
Dundalk
🟨
67'
M. Animasahun
Dundalk
🔄
72'
A. Coote ↔ S. Moore
Shelbourne
🔄
72'
M. Mbeng ↔ S. Gannon
Shelbourne
🔄
74'
K. Buckley ↔ S. Tracey
Dundalk
🔄
74'
↔ H. Groome
Dundalk
🔄
82'
J. Henry-Francis ↔ S. Bone
Shelbourne
🔄
82'
R. Freitas ↔ W. Jarvis
Shelbourne
🟨
85'
H. Wood
Shelbourne
🟨
89'
H. Groome
Dundalk
🟨
89'
L. Fitzgerald
Shelbourne
🟨
90+1'
J. Wilson
Dundalk
🟨
90+2'
K. Ledwidge
Shelbourne

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 83.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 62.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
83.7%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
62.1%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
77.6%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Shelbourne Win 38.5%
Draw 16.3%
Dundalk Win 45.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Shelbourne1.56
Dundalk1.61
Recent Form (Last 5)
Shelbourne Shelbourne
WWDLW
44 GF / 38 GA
Dundalk Dundalk
WLDWL
42 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.63
Average Goals Scored
1.75
1.41
Average Goals Conceded
1.46
20
BTTS Yes
17
19
Over 2.5
15
4
Shots on Goal
5.68

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Shelbourne Shelbourne 27 matches
Dundalk Dundalk 24 matches
Shelbourne Statistic Dundalk
10 Wins 10
11 Draws 8
6 Losses 6
44 Goals For 42
38 Goals Against 35
1.63 Avg Goals Scored 1.75
1.41 Avg Goals Conceded 1.46
20 BTTS Yes 17
22 Over 1.5 21
19 Over 2.5 15
10 Over 3.5 10
6 Clean Sheets 5
4 Failed To Score 2
4 Shots On Goal 5.68
13.22 Total Shots 15.86
5.26 Corners 5.95
49.7% Ball Possession 48.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Dundalk's more proactive style and Shelbourne's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Dundalk. Dundalk look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Shelbourne Analysis

Shelbourne arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 30 points after 22 matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 9 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 31:32 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Harry Wood (3 goals), John Martin (2 goals), Daniel Kelly (2 goals), with creative support from Harry Wood (5 assists), John Martin (1 assists), Will Jarvis (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, the record of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Dundalk Analysis

Dundalk come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 35 points after 21 matches. They have recorded 9 wins, 8 draws, and 4 losses, with a 34:29 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on Tyreke Wilson (4 goals), Daryl Horgan (4 goals), Gbemi Arubi (3 goals), with creative support from Eoin Kenny (3 assists), Tyreke Wilson (2 assists), Daryl Horgan (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses, which underlines a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Shelbourne won 7 times, Dundalk won 2 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:11 from Shelbourne's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 1.93 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.7%)
Predicted formations: Shelbourne 4-2-3-1 / Dundalk 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Shelbourne wins 7, draws 5, Dundalk wins 2
Stats
Shelbourne Shelbourne
Dundalk Dundalk
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
2
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
0
Blocked Shots
2
1 Corner Kicks 2
12 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 0
52% Ball Possession 48%
6 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Goal 2
2 Shots off Goal 4
0 Blocked Shots 2
1 Goalkeeper Saves 2
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Shelbourne
Formation
Dundalk
W. Speel
W. Speel
M. Mbeng
M. Mbeng
O. Casey
O. Casey
P. Barrett
P. Barrett
J. Norris
🎯
J. Norris
E. Caffrey
E. Caffrey
J. Henry-Francis
J. Henry-Francis
H. Wood
H. Wood
A. Coote
A. Coote
D. Kelly
D. Kelly
R. Freitas
🎯
R. Freitas
E. Minogue
E. Minogue
J. Wilson
J. Wilson
R. Cornwall
R. Cornwall
B. Burns
B. Burns
T. Wilson
T. Wilson
K. Buckley
K. Buckley
A. Dervin
A. Dervin
D. McDaid
D. McDaid
R. Teahan
R. Teahan
D. Horgan
🎯
D. Horgan
G. Arubi
G. Arubi
Shelbourne 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
W. Speel
25
M. Mbeng
↓ 72'
16
O. Casey
↓ 62'
29
P. Barrett
🟨 16'
18
J. Norris
🎯 39'
27
E. Caffrey
21
J. Henry-Francis
↓ 82' 🟨 48'
7
H. Wood
⚽ 41' 🟨 85'
14
A. Coote
↓ 72'
17
D. Kelly
⚽ 39'
20
R. Freitas
🎯 41' ↓ 82'
Substitutes
74
C. Campion
22
S. Moore
↑ 72'
28
M. Lundgren
55
J. Roche
2
S. Gannon
↑ 72'
4
K. Ledwidge
↑ 62' 🟨 90+2'
15
S. Bone
↑ 82'
36
W. Jarvis
↑ 82'
56
J. Wuna
Dundalk 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
E. Minogue
31
J. Wilson
⚽ 4' 🟨 90+1'
24
R. Cornwall
3
B. Burns
22
T. Wilson
↓ 64'
18
K. Buckley
↓ 74' 🟨 37'
6
A. Dervin
27
D. McDaid
↓ 64'
11
R. Teahan
🟨 17'
7
D. Horgan
🎯 4'
9
G. Arubi
Substitutes
13
P. Cherrie
15
T. Clarke
↑ 64'
12
L. Mulligan
17
S. Tracey
↑ 74'
8
H. Groome
↑ 74' 🟨 89'
10
L. Gaxha
4
M. Animasahun
↑ 64' 🟨 67'
19
S. Spaight
23
A. M. Keogh
Last matches: Shelbourne
02.08.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Waterford
0
1
L
30.07.26
UEF
Shelbourne
Kalju Nomme
1
2
L
23.07.26
UEF
Shelbourne
Kalju Nomme
5
2
W
07.07.26
Fri
Shelbourne
Celtic
1
1
D
27.06.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Sligo Rovers
2
2
D
22.06.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Bohemians
0
3
L
19.06.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Drogheda United
2
2
D
12.06.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Shamrock Rovers
2
1
W
29.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Galway United
1
1
D
25.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Derry City
0
0
D
22.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Waterford
2
1
W
15.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
1
0
W
08.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Sligo Rovers
0
0
D
04.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Bohemians
2
2
D
01.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
1
W
24.04.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Drogheda United
3
4
L
17.04.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Derry City
1
2
L
06.04.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Shamrock Rovers
2
3
L
03.04.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
3
L
21.03.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Sligo Rovers
1
0
W
Last matches: Dundalk
31.07.26
Pre
Dundalk
Sligo Rovers
1
1
D
24.07.26
Pre
Dundalk
St Patrick's Athl.
1
1
D
10.07.26
Pre
Dundalk
Drogheda United
1
2
L
26.06.26
Pre
Dundalk
Waterford
2
3
L
19.06.26
Pre
Dundalk
Bohemians
2
1
W
12.06.26
Pre
Dundalk
Galway United
1
0
W
29.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Derry City
2
1
W
22.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Drogheda United
1
1
D
15.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Shamrock Rovers
1
0
W
08.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Bohemians
1
3
L
04.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Waterford
3
3
D
01.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Shelbourne
1
2
L
25.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
Sligo Rovers
0
2
L
17.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
Galway United
2
1
W
10.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
Derry City
2
2
D
06.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
St Patrick's Athl.
2
0
W
03.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
Shelbourne
3
2
W
20.03.26
Pre
Dundalk
Bohemians
1
1
D
16.03.26
Pre
Dundalk
Sligo Rovers
1
0
W
13.03.26
Pre
Dundalk
Waterford
5
0
W
H2H: Shelbourne vs Dundalk
03.07.26
H2H
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
1
W
01.05.26
H2H
Dundalk
Shelbourne
1
2
W
03.04.26
H2H
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
3
L
20.01.26
H2H
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
1
W
01.02.25
H2H
Shelbourne
Dundalk
0
0
D
30.08.24
H2H
Dundalk
Shelbourne
0
1
W
07.06.24
H2H
Shelbourne
Dundalk
1
0
W
03.05.24
H2H
Dundalk
Shelbourne
0
0
D
29.03.24
H2H
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
1
W
06.10.23
H2H
Shelbourne
Dundalk
1
0
W
06.08.23
H2H
Dundalk
Shelbourne
1
1
D
21.04.23
H2H
Shelbourne
Dundalk
1
1
D
06.03.23
H2H
Dundalk
Shelbourne
2
1
L
02.09.22
H2H
Dundalk
Shelbourne
0
0
D
24.06.22
H2H
Shelbourne
Dundalk
0
0
D
Last matches: Shelbourne
23.07.26
UEF
Shelbourne
Kalju Nomme
5
2
W
07.07.26
Fri
Shelbourne
Celtic
1
1
D
22.06.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Bohemians
0
3
L
12.06.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Shamrock Rovers
2
1
W
29.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Galway United
1
1
D
22.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Waterford
2
1
W
08.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Sligo Rovers
0
0
D
24.04.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Drogheda United
3
4
L
17.04.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Derry City
1
2
L
03.04.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
3
L
16.03.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Bohemians
0
0
D
09.03.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Shamrock Rovers
2
2
D
06.03.26
Pre
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
2
3
L
20.02.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Galway United
1
1
D
31.01.26
Fri
Shelbourne
Longford Town
4
1
W
20.01.26
Fri
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
1
W
11.12.25
UEF
Shelbourne
Crystal Palace
0
3
L
06.11.25
UEF
Shelbourne
Drita
0
1
L
02.10.25
UEF
Shelbourne
BK Hacken
0
0
D
21.08.25
UEF
Shelbourne
Linfield
3
1
W
H2H at home: Shelbourne
03.07.26
H2H
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
1
W
03.04.26
H2H
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
3
L
20.01.26
H2H
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
1
W
01.02.25
H2H
Shelbourne
Dundalk
0
0
D
07.06.24
H2H
Shelbourne
Dundalk
1
0
W
29.03.24
H2H
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
1
W
06.10.23
H2H
Shelbourne
Dundalk
1
0
W
21.04.23
H2H
Shelbourne
Dundalk
1
1
D
24.06.22
H2H
Shelbourne
Dundalk
0
0
D
Last matches: Dundalk
24.07.26
Pre
Dundalk
St Patrick's Athl.
1
1
D
19.06.26
Pre
Dundalk
Bohemians
2
1
W
12.06.26
Pre
Dundalk
Galway United
1
0
W
22.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Drogheda United
1
1
D
04.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Waterford
3
3
D
25.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
Sligo Rovers
0
2
L
03.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
Shelbourne
3
2
W
20.03.26
Pre
Dundalk
Bohemians
1
1
D
06.03.26
Pre
Dundalk
Galway United
2
2
D
27.02.26
Pre
Dundalk
St Patrick's Athl.
0
4
L
23.02.26
Pre
Dundalk
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
13.02.26
Pre
Dundalk
Derry City
2
2
D
20.01.26
Fri
Dundalk
Shelbourne
1
2
L
16.01.26
Fri
Dundalk
UCD
5
1
W
H2H away: Dundalk
03.07.26
H2H
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
1
L
03.04.26
H2H
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
3
W
20.01.26
H2H
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
1
L
01.02.25
H2H
Shelbourne
Dundalk
0
0
D
07.06.24
H2H
Shelbourne
Dundalk
1
0
L
29.03.24
H2H
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
1
L
06.10.23
H2H
Shelbourne
Dundalk
1
0
L
21.04.23
H2H
Shelbourne
Dundalk
1
1
D
24.06.22
H2H
Shelbourne
Dundalk
0
0
D

Standings

Premier Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 15 6 5 40:22 18 51
D W W D W
2 26 12 8 6 41:22 19 44
D D D W L
3 26 12 8 6 41:28 13 44
D W W W L
4 26 9 10 7 40:38 2 37
D D L L L
5 25 8 10 7 35:36 -1 34
L W D L D
6 26 6 12 8 33:32 1 30
D L W D L
7 25 7 8 10 33:40 -7 29
D D W L L
8 26 6 9 11 31:43 -12 27
D D W L L
9 26 5 10 11 34:47 -13 25
W D D W W
10 26 5 7 14 23:43 -20 22
D D L L D
Play-offs
Qualifying
Relegation Play-offs
Relegation