CHINA SUPER LEAGUE
05.09.2026 12:00
Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium
Referee: M. Ahmat
Shandong Luneng
Match Timeline
Sichuan Jiuniu
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
1'
Cryzan · Assist: V. Qazaishvili
Shandong Luneng
🟥
29'
Cryzan
Shandong Luneng
VAR
29'
Cryzan
Shandong Luneng
🟨
45+7'
Yiming Yang
Sichuan Jiuniu
🔄
46'
Y. Li ↔ Huang Zhengyu
Shandong Luneng
🔄
46'
Mijit Mewlan ↔ Shi Songchen
Shandong Luneng
🔄
46'
Yu Rui ↔ Yu Menghui
Sichuan Jiuniu
🔄
54'
Yang Yiming ↔ Li Ning
Sichuan Jiuniu
🟨
59'
Miao Tang
Sichuan Jiuniu
🔄
61'
V. Qazaishvili ↔ R. Merkies
Shandong Luneng
68'
Dai Wai-Tsun
Sichuan Jiuniu
🔄
69'
Chen Pu ↔ Chen Zeshi
Shandong Luneng
🟨
72'
Eden Karzev
Sichuan Jiuniu
🔄
79'
Xie Wenneng ↔ Peng Xiao
Shandong Luneng
🔄
88'
Dai Wai-Tsun ↔ Li Long
Sichuan Jiuniu
🔄
88'
Yao Junsheng ↔ Zhang Yufeng
Sichuan Jiuniu

Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 79.1%
Odds 1.63
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds 1.50
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.49
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
79.1%
1.63
BTTS Yes
75%
1.50
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.49
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
89%
1.21
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.40
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Shandong Luneng Win 79.1%
Draw 5.6%
Sichuan Jiuniu Win 15.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Shandong Luneng1.78
Sichuan Jiuniu1.46
Recent Form (Last 5)
Shandong Luneng Shandong Luneng
WWDLW
45 GF / 42 GA
Sichuan Jiuniu Sichuan Jiuniu
WLDWL
33 GF / 44 GA
Key Stats
1.8
Average Goals Scored
1.32
1.68
Average Goals Conceded
1.76
18
BTTS Yes
13
18
Over 2.5
13
4.88
Shots on Goal
4.08

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Shandong Luneng Shandong Luneng 25 matches
Sichuan Jiuniu Sichuan Jiuniu 25 matches
Shandong Luneng Statistic Sichuan Jiuniu
13 Wins 8
3 Draws 3
9 Losses 14
45 Goals For 33
42 Goals Against 44
1.8 Avg Goals Scored 1.32
1.68 Avg Goals Conceded 1.76
18 BTTS Yes 13
22 Over 1.5 19
18 Over 2.5 13
11 Over 3.5 7
3 Clean Sheets 4
4 Failed To Score 8
4.88 Shots On Goal 4.08
14.08 Total Shots 11.64
4.36 Corners 5.04
50% Ball Possession 44.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Shandong Luneng's more proactive style and Sichuan Jiuniu's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Sichuan Jiuniu. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Shandong Luneng expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Sichuan Jiuniu in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sichuan Jiuniu having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Shandong Luneng come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Shandong Luneng Analysis

Operating from 5 place with 36 points from 25 games, Shandong Luneng bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 13 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses, with a 45:42 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on Cryzan (2 goals), Maiwulang Mijiti (1 goals), Raphaël Merkies (1 goals), with creative support from Cryzan (1 assists), Songchen Shi (1 assists), Yuanyi Li (1 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, their record of 7 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses points to a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Sichuan Jiuniu Analysis

Sichuan Jiuniu sit 10 with 27 points after 25 league matches. The record of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 14 defeats, together with a 33:44 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Wesley Moraes (2 goals), Zhipeng Jiang (2 goals), Albion Ademi (1 goals), with creative support from Wesley Moraes (3 assists), Albion Ademi (1 assists), Li Ning (1 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 9 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Shandong Luneng won 5 times, Sichuan Jiuniu won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:5 from Shandong Luneng's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 4.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.4%)
Predicted formations: Shandong Luneng 3-4-3 / Sichuan Jiuniu 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Shandong Luneng wins 5, draws 0, Sichuan Jiuniu wins 0

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 15 7 4 51:30 21 52
D W L W L
2 26 12 4 10 38:42 -4 40
W D W D L
3 26 11 10 5 49:33 16 38
D D D W W
4 26 11 5 10 54:51 3 38
W L D W W
5 26 8 14 4 31:32 -1 38
D D W D D
6 26 13 4 9 46:43 3 37
D W L W W
7 26 10 8 8 40:33 7 33
D W W D W
8 26 12 5 9 52:46 6 31
W L W L W
9 26 7 10 9 27:32 -5 31
L D L D L
10 26 10 6 10 45:43 2 31
W L W D L
11 26 8 4 14 34:45 -11 28
D L D W L
12 26 8 9 9 33:35 -2 27
D D D D L
13 26 7 4 15 34:47 -13 25
L L L D L
14 26 9 8 9 36:32 4 25
W W D D L
15 26 5 11 10 39:46 -7 21
L D D W D
16 26 6 3 17 34:53 -19 14
L L L L L
AFC Champions League Elite League Stage
AFC Champions League 2 Group Stage
Relegation