IRELAND PREMIER DIVISION
18.09.2026 19:00
Tallaght Stadium

Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 51%
Odds 1.51
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 1.75
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds 1.65
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
51%
1.51
BTTS Yes
62.8%
1.75
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
1.65
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.13
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.20
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Shamrock Rovers Win 51%
Draw 12.7%
Waterford Win 36.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Shamrock Rovers1.64
Waterford1.29
Recent Form (Last 5)
Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers
WWDLW
68 GF / 43 GA
Waterford Waterford
WLDWL
55 GF / 61 GA
Key Stats
1.66
Average Goals Scored
1.45
1.05
Average Goals Conceded
1.61
21
BTTS Yes
23
19
Over 2.5
19
4.29
Shots on Goal
4.03

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers 41 matches
Waterford Waterford 38 matches
Shamrock Rovers Statistic Waterford
22 Wins 12
9 Draws 13
10 Losses 13
68 Goals For 55
43 Goals Against 61
1.66 Avg Goals Scored 1.45
1.05 Avg Goals Conceded 1.61
21 BTTS Yes 23
30 Over 1.5 30
19 Over 2.5 19
12 Over 3.5 16
14 Clean Sheets 7
9 Failed To Score 11
4.29 Shots On Goal 4.03
10.87 Total Shots 13.13
3.89 Corners 5.32
51.1% Ball Possession 37.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Shamrock Rovers's more proactive style and Waterford's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Waterford. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Shamrock Rovers arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 56 points compared to Waterford in 8 on 32, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Shamrock Rovers Analysis

Shamrock Rovers arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 1 place with 56 points after 29 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 16 wins, 8 draws, and 5 losses, while the 46:27 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on G. Burke (6 goals), M. Noonan (4 goals), J. McGovern (3 goals), with creative support from J. McGovern (2 assists), J. Byrne (2 assists), D. Watts (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, their split return of 10 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Waterford Analysis

Waterford are currently 8 in the standings with 32 points from 29 matches. The record of 7 wins, 11 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 39:48 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Tom Lonergan (9 goals), Pádraig Amond (6 goals), John Mahon (4 goals), with creative support from Benny Couto (4 assists), Tom Lonergan (3 assists), Conan Noonan (2 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Shamrock Rovers won 12 times, Waterford won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 28:13 from Shamrock Rovers's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.3%)
Predicted formations: Shamrock Rovers 3-5-2 / Waterford 3-5-2
H2H summary: Shamrock Rovers wins 12, draws 1, Waterford wins 2

Standings

Premier Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 31 16 8 7 51:25 26 56
W W L W W
2 30 16 8 6 46:29 17 56
L D D W D
3 30 15 8 7 53:36 17 53
W W W L D
4 31 10 11 10 47:50 -3 41
L D W L L
5 31 8 14 9 44:42 2 38
D W D L W
6 30 9 10 11 41:46 -5 37
W L D W D
7 30 8 12 10 38:42 -4 36
L L D D L
8 31 7 13 11 42:51 -9 34
D D W D W
9 31 8 10 13 37:49 -12 34
W W L L D
10 31 5 8 18 24:53 -29 23
L L L D L
Play-offs
Qualifying
Relegation Play-offs
Relegation