BRAZIL SERIE D
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 94.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
94.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Serra Branca Win 55.7%
Draw 18.5%
Lagarto Win 25.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Serra Branca2.04
Lagarto1.48
Recent Form (Last 5)
Serra Branca Serra Branca
WWDLW
9 GF / 5 GA
Lagarto Lagarto
WLDWL
9 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1.8
Average Goals Scored
1.8
1
Average Goals Conceded
2.4
4
BTTS Yes
5
3
Over 2.5
4
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Serra Branca Serra Branca 5 matches
Lagarto Lagarto 5 matches
Serra Branca Statistic Lagarto
2 Wins 1
3 Draws 1
0 Losses 3
9 Goals For 9
5 Goals Against 12
1.8 Avg Goals Scored 1.8
1 Avg Goals Conceded 2.4
4 BTTS Yes 5
5 Over 1.5 5
3 Over 2.5 4
1 Over 3.5 2
1 Clean Sheets 0
0 Failed To Score 0
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Serra Branca's more proactive style and Lagarto's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Lagarto. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Lagarto arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Lagarto having the stronger overall control. Serra Branca arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 9 points compared to Lagarto in 4 on 4, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Serra Branca Analysis

Serra Branca arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 2 place with 9 points after 5 matches. The record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 0 defeats, together with a 9:5 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Clayton (2 goals), Kayan (2 goals), Diego Ceara (1 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Lagarto Analysis

Lagarto sit 4 with 4 points after 5 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats with a 9:12 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Rhuann (4 goals), Erik Gabriel (3 goals), Alessandro (1 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Serra Branca won 1 times, Lagarto won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:1 from Serra Branca's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.5%)
H2H summary: Serra Branca wins 1, draws 1, Lagarto wins 0
Last matches: Serra Branca
12.07.26
Ser
Serra Branca
Uberlandia
2
2
D
04.07.26
Ser
Serra Branca
Uberlandia
0
1
L
28.06.26
Ser
Serra Branca
Juazeirense
1
0
W
21.06.26
Ser
Serra Branca
Juazeirense
2
0
W
14.06.26
Ser
Serra Branca
Sergipe
1
1
D
31.05.26
Ser
Serra Branca
Retrô
0
0
D
24.05.26
Ser
Serra Branca
Decisão
1
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Serra Branca
Treze
1
2
L
02.05.26
Ser
Serra Branca
Lagarto
2
1
W
25.04.26
Ser
Serra Branca
Treze
1
1
D
18.04.26
Ser
Serra Branca
Decisão
3
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
Serra Branca
Retrô
2
2
D
05.04.26
Ser
Serra Branca
Sergipe
1
1
D
Last matches: Lagarto
27.06.26
Ser
Lagarto
CSA
0
2
L
21.06.26
Ser
Lagarto
CSA
1
1
D
14.06.26
Ser
Lagarto
Decisão
1
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Lagarto
Treze
2
1
W
24.05.26
Ser
Lagarto
Retrô
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Lagarto
Sergipe
1
1
D
02.05.26
Ser
Lagarto
Serra Branca
1
2
L
25.04.26
Ser
Lagarto
Sergipe
1
3
L
18.04.26
Ser
Lagarto
Retrô
1
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Lagarto
Treze
5
4
W
05.04.26
Ser
Lagarto
Decisão
1
1
D
10.08.25
Ser
Lagarto
Central SC
2
2
D
03.08.25
Ser
Lagarto
Central SC
0
1
L
27.07.25
Ser
Lagarto
União Carmolandense
0
1
L
19.07.25
Ser
Lagarto
Barcelona BA
2
0
W
12.07.25
Ser
Lagarto
Sergipe
2
1
W
06.07.25
Ser
Lagarto
Penedense
4
0
W
28.06.25
Ser
Lagarto
ASA
0
1
L
16.06.25
Ser
Lagarto
Jequié
2
1
W
11.06.25
Ser
Lagarto
Juazeirense
1
2
L
H2H: Serra Branca vs Lagarto
09.05.26
H2H
Serra Branca
Lagarto
0
0
D
02.05.26
H2H
Lagarto
Serra Branca
1
2
W
Last matches: Serra Branca
04.07.26
Ser
Serra Branca
Uberlandia
0
1
L
21.06.26
Ser
Serra Branca
Juazeirense
2
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Serra Branca
Retrô
0
0
D
16.05.26
Ser
Serra Branca
Treze
1
2
L
18.04.26
Ser
Serra Branca
Decisão
3
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Serra Branca
Sergipe
1
1
D
H2H at home: Serra Branca
09.05.26
H2H
Serra Branca
Lagarto
0
0
D
Last matches: Lagarto
27.06.26
Ser
Lagarto
CSA
0
2
L
30.05.26
Ser
Lagarto
Treze
2
1
W
24.05.26
Ser
Lagarto
Retrô
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Lagarto
Sergipe
1
3
L
05.04.26
Ser
Lagarto
Decisão
1
1
D
03.08.25
Ser
Lagarto
Central SC
0
1
L
27.07.25
Ser
Lagarto
União Carmolandense
0
1
L
12.07.25
Ser
Lagarto
Sergipe
2
1
W
28.06.25
Ser
Lagarto
ASA
0
1
L
11.06.25
Ser
Lagarto
Juazeirense
1
2
L
25.05.25
Ser
Lagarto
Jequié
1
3
L
10.05.25
Ser
Lagarto
Penedense
1
0
W
26.04.25
Ser
Lagarto
Barcelona BA
2
2
D
H2H away: Lagarto
09.05.26
H2H
Serra Branca
Lagarto
0
0
D

Standings

Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 13:5 8 22
W W D W D
2 10 6 2 2 15:9 6 20
W D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 10:7 3 13
L W D L L
4 10 2 4 4 11:14 -3 10
L L D W W
5 10 2 4 4 8:13 -5 10
L D D W L
6 10 1 2 7 8:17 -9 5
W L L L D
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 4
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:6 10 23
W W D W W
2 10 5 4 1 13:7 6 19
W D D L D
3 10 3 3 4 9:10 -1 12
D D W L L
4 10 2 6 2 10:9 1 12
D D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D L W D
6 10 1 2 7 7:16 -9 5
L L D L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 5
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 19:13 6 20
W L W W L
2 10 5 3 2 20:11 9 18
L W W L W
3 10 4 3 3 15:10 5 15
W W L L W
4 10 3 4 3 14:17 -3 13
L W D W L
5 10 3 3 4 18:18 0 12
W L L W W
6 10 1 1 8 12:29 -17 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 6
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 5 0 14:7 7 20
W D D D W
2 10 5 4 1 12:6 6 19
W W W D D
3 10 4 2 4 11:13 -2 14
W D L L W
4 10 3 4 3 12:6 6 13
L W W W D
5 10 2 3 5 8:15 -7 9
L L L D L
6 10 0 4 6 10:20 -10 4
L L D D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 7
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 15:7 8 21
W D W W D
2 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W W L W D
3 10 3 5 2 12:9 3 14
L D W D L
4 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
W D L L L
5 10 2 4 4 10:10 0 10
L D W D W
6 10 1 4 5 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 8
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 15:6 9 23
W W D W W
2 10 6 3 1 14:3 11 21
W W D W D
3 10 3 4 3 8:5 3 13
L W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 8:7 1 13
W L D D L
5 10 3 1 6 4:11 -7 10
L L D L W
6 10 0 2 8 3:20 -17 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Standings
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 2 3 18:14 4 17
L D L W W
1 10 6 3 1 25:8 17 21
W D D W W
1 10 5 3 2 12:8 4 18
L D D D W
1 10 5 2 3 13:9 4 17
D W W L L
1 10 6 3 1 16:6 10 21
W W W D L
1 10 4 5 1 14:9 5 17
L D D W W
1 10 6 1 3 15:9 6 19
W W W W L
1 10 6 1 3 14:8 6 19
L W W L D
2 10 4 3 3 15:13 2 15
D L L D W
2 10 5 2 3 12:9 3 17
W D D L L
2 10 4 3 3 12:9 3 15
W L W D D
2 10 4 5 1 13:6 7 17
D W D W D
2 10 5 2 3 16:8 8 17
L W W D D
2 10 4 3 3 12:7 5 15
W D L W W
2 10 5 1 4 9:8 1 16
W L D W L
2 10 4 4 2 9:5 4 16
D L D W W
3 10 3 6 1 12:8 4 15
D D W L D
3 10 4 4 2 11:7 4 16
D D D W W
3 10 3 4 3 7:7 0 13
D L D W D
3 10 4 3 3 12:8 4 15
D D W D W
3 10 3 5 2 14:9 5 14
L D D W D
3 10 3 4 3 10:10 0 13
W L D L D
3 10 4 3 3 9:4 5 15
L D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 3:4 -1 13
D L D L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:15 -1 13
W W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 12:14 -2 13
D D D W W
4 10 3 4 3 9:12 -3 13
D D L L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:12 2 13
W L L D D
4 10 3 3 4 11:21 -10 12
W D L W L
4 10 3 3 4 8:10 -2 12
L W D L L
4 10 4 3 3 11:9 2 15
W D L W W
4 10 3 4 3 6:8 -2 13
W W D D W
5 10 3 3 4 13:15 -2 12
W D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 10:17 -7 9
L D D L L
5 10 3 3 4 8:9 -1 12
W W W L D
5 10 3 1 6 9:21 -12 10
L L L D L
5 10 3 2 5 11:16 -5 11
W L D L W
5 10 3 3 4 7:10 -3 12
W L W W D
5 10 4 3 3 10:8 2 15
L W D L L
5 10 2 4 4 9:12 -3 10
D L D D L
6 10 2 2 6 10:17 -7 8
L D W L L
6 10 1 2 7 5:20 -15 5
L D D L L
6 10 2 3 5 9:12 -3 9
L W L W L
6 10 1 5 4 6:11 -5 8
D D D D W
6 10 2 1 7 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
6 10 3 2 5 9:14 -5 11
L W D L L
6 10 1 1 8 2:18 -16 4
L L L L W
6 10 2 3 5 7:11 -4 9
D W L W L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)