BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Sergipe
Match Timeline
Serra Branca
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
54'
Matheus Serra
Sergipe
90'
Diego Ceara
Serra Branca

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 87.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
87.9%
-
BTTS Yes
58.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Sergipe Win 50.3%
Draw 12.1%
Serra Branca Win 37.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sergipe1.25
Serra Branca1.26
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sergipe Sergipe
WWDLW
14 GF / 12 GA
Serra Branca Serra Branca
WLDWL
11 GF / 7 GA
Key Stats
1.56
Average Goals Scored
1.22
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
0.78
7
BTTS Yes
5
5
Over 2.5
4
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sergipe Sergipe 9 matches
Serra Branca Serra Branca 9 matches
Sergipe Statistic Serra Branca
4 Wins 3
2 Draws 5
3 Losses 1
14 Goals For 11
12 Goals Against 7
1.56 Avg Goals Scored 1.22
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 0.78
7 BTTS Yes 5
7 Over 1.5 6
5 Over 2.5 4
4 Over 3.5 1
1 Clean Sheets 4
1 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Serra Branca. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Serra Branca having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Sergipe Analysis

Sergipe arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 14 points after 9 matches. The record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 14:12 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Betinho (5 goals), Felipe Valdivia (2 goals), Venicius (2 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Serra Branca Analysis

Placed 2 with 14 points from 9 outings, Serra Branca continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 11:7 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Kayan (3 goals), Clayton (2 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Sergipe won 0 times, Serra Branca won 0 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:2 from Sergipe's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.9%)
H2H summary: Sergipe wins 0, draws 2, Serra Branca wins 0
Last matches: Sergipe
27.06.26
Ser
Sergipe
ASA
0
1
L
21.06.26
Ser
Sergipe
ASA
1
1
D
31.05.26
Ser
Sergipe
Decisão
2
3
L
23.05.26
Ser
Sergipe
Treze
0
1
L
16.05.26
Ser
Sergipe
Lagarto
1
1
D
09.05.26
Ser
Sergipe
Retrô
1
0
W
04.05.26
Ser
Sergipe
Retrô
3
1
W
25.04.26
Ser
Sergipe
Lagarto
3
1
W
19.04.26
Ser
Sergipe
Treze
1
3
L
11.04.26
Ser
Sergipe
Decisão
2
1
W
05.04.26
Ser
Sergipe
Serra Branca
1
1
D
09.08.25
Ser
Sergipe
Santa Cruz
1
2
L
03.08.25
Ser
Sergipe
Santa Cruz
2
1
W
27.07.25
Ser
Sergipe
Jequié
1
0
W
20.07.25
Ser
Sergipe
Juazeirense
0
0
D
12.07.25
Ser
Sergipe
Lagarto
1
2
L
05.07.25
Ser
Sergipe
ASA
2
2
D
28.06.25
Ser
Sergipe
Penedense
2
0
W
14.06.25
Ser
Sergipe
União Carmolandense
0
2
L
08.06.25
Ser
Sergipe
Barcelona BA
4
1
W
Last matches: Serra Branca
12.07.26
Ser
Serra Branca
Uberlandia
2
2
D
04.07.26
Ser
Serra Branca
Uberlandia
0
1
L
28.06.26
Ser
Serra Branca
Juazeirense
1
0
W
21.06.26
Ser
Serra Branca
Juazeirense
2
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Serra Branca
Retrô
0
0
D
24.05.26
Ser
Serra Branca
Decisão
1
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Serra Branca
Treze
1
2
L
09.05.26
Ser
Serra Branca
Lagarto
0
0
D
02.05.26
Ser
Serra Branca
Lagarto
2
1
W
25.04.26
Ser
Serra Branca
Treze
1
1
D
18.04.26
Ser
Serra Branca
Decisão
3
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
Serra Branca
Retrô
2
2
D
05.04.26
Ser
Serra Branca
Sergipe
1
1
D
H2H: Sergipe vs Serra Branca
14.06.26
H2H
Sergipe
Serra Branca
1
1
D
05.04.26
H2H
Serra Branca
Sergipe
1
1
D
Last matches: Sergipe
27.06.26
Ser
Sergipe
ASA
0
1
L
23.05.26
Ser
Sergipe
Treze
0
1
L
09.05.26
Ser
Sergipe
Retrô
1
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Sergipe
Lagarto
3
1
W
11.04.26
Ser
Sergipe
Decisão
2
1
W
03.08.25
Ser
Sergipe
Santa Cruz
2
1
W
27.07.25
Ser
Sergipe
Jequié
1
0
W
12.07.25
Ser
Sergipe
Lagarto
1
2
L
28.06.25
Ser
Sergipe
Penedense
2
0
W
08.06.25
Ser
Sergipe
Barcelona BA
4
1
W
25.05.25
Ser
Sergipe
União Carmolandense
0
0
D
10.05.25
Ser
Sergipe
ASA
1
2
L
27.04.25
Ser
Sergipe
Juazeirense
0
0
D
H2H at home: Sergipe
14.06.26
H2H
Sergipe
Serra Branca
1
1
D
Last matches: Serra Branca
12.07.26
Ser
Serra Branca
Uberlandia
2
2
D
28.06.26
Ser
Serra Branca
Juazeirense
1
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Serra Branca
Decisão
1
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Serra Branca
Lagarto
2
1
W
25.04.26
Ser
Serra Branca
Treze
1
1
D
12.04.26
Ser
Serra Branca
Retrô
2
2
D
H2H away: Serra Branca
14.06.26
H2H
Sergipe
Serra Branca
1
1
D

Standings

Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 13:5 8 22
W W D W D
2 10 6 2 2 15:9 6 20
W D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 10:7 3 13
L W D L L
4 10 2 4 4 11:14 -3 10
L L D W W
5 10 2 4 4 8:13 -5 10
L D D W L
6 10 1 2 7 8:17 -9 5
W L L L D
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 4
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:6 10 23
W W D W W
2 10 5 4 1 13:7 6 19
W D D L D
3 10 3 3 4 9:10 -1 12
D D W L L
4 10 2 6 2 10:9 1 12
D D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D L W D
6 10 1 2 7 7:16 -9 5
L L D L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 5
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 19:13 6 20
W L W W L
2 10 5 3 2 20:11 9 18
L W W L W
3 10 4 3 3 15:10 5 15
W W L L W
4 10 3 4 3 14:17 -3 13
L W D W L
5 10 3 3 4 18:18 0 12
W L L W W
6 10 1 1 8 12:29 -17 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 6
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 5 0 14:7 7 20
W D D D W
2 10 5 4 1 12:6 6 19
W W W D D
3 10 4 2 4 11:13 -2 14
W D L L W
4 10 3 4 3 12:6 6 13
L W W W D
5 10 2 3 5 8:15 -7 9
L L L D L
6 10 0 4 6 10:20 -10 4
L L D D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 7
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 15:7 8 21
W D W W D
2 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W W L W D
3 10 3 5 2 12:9 3 14
L D W D L
4 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
W D L L L
5 10 2 4 4 10:10 0 10
L D W D W
6 10 1 4 5 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 8
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 15:6 9 23
W W D W W
2 10 6 3 1 14:3 11 21
W W D W D
3 10 3 4 3 8:5 3 13
L W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 8:7 1 13
W L D D L
5 10 3 1 6 4:11 -7 10
L L D L W
6 10 0 2 8 3:20 -17 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Standings
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 2 3 18:14 4 17
L D L W W
1 10 6 3 1 25:8 17 21
W D D W W
1 10 5 3 2 12:8 4 18
L D D D W
1 10 5 2 3 13:9 4 17
D W W L L
1 10 6 3 1 16:6 10 21
W W W D L
1 10 4 5 1 14:9 5 17
L D D W W
1 10 6 1 3 15:9 6 19
W W W W L
1 10 6 1 3 14:8 6 19
L W W L D
2 10 4 3 3 15:13 2 15
D L L D W
2 10 5 2 3 12:9 3 17
W D D L L
2 10 4 3 3 12:9 3 15
W L W D D
2 10 4 5 1 13:6 7 17
D W D W D
2 10 5 2 3 16:8 8 17
L W W D D
2 10 4 3 3 12:7 5 15
W D L W W
2 10 5 1 4 9:8 1 16
W L D W L
2 10 4 4 2 9:5 4 16
D L D W W
3 10 3 6 1 12:8 4 15
D D W L D
3 10 4 4 2 11:7 4 16
D D D W W
3 10 3 4 3 7:7 0 13
D L D W D
3 10 4 3 3 12:8 4 15
D D W D W
3 10 3 5 2 14:9 5 14
L D D W D
3 10 3 4 3 10:10 0 13
W L D L D
3 10 4 3 3 9:4 5 15
L D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 3:4 -1 13
D L D L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:15 -1 13
W W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 12:14 -2 13
D D D W W
4 10 3 4 3 9:12 -3 13
D D L L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:12 2 13
W L L D D
4 10 3 3 4 11:21 -10 12
W D L W L
4 10 3 3 4 8:10 -2 12
L W D L L
4 10 4 3 3 11:9 2 15
W D L W W
4 10 3 4 3 6:8 -2 13
W W D D W
5 10 3 3 4 13:15 -2 12
W D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 10:17 -7 9
L D D L L
5 10 3 3 4 8:9 -1 12
W W W L D
5 10 3 1 6 9:21 -12 10
L L L D L
5 10 3 2 5 11:16 -5 11
W L D L W
5 10 3 3 4 7:10 -3 12
W L W W D
5 10 4 3 3 10:8 2 15
L W D L L
5 10 2 4 4 9:12 -3 10
D L D D L
6 10 2 2 6 10:17 -7 8
L D W L L
6 10 1 2 7 5:20 -15 5
L D D L L
6 10 2 3 5 9:12 -3 9
L W L W L
6 10 1 5 4 6:11 -5 8
D D D D W
6 10 2 1 7 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
6 10 3 2 5 9:14 -5 11
L W D L L
6 10 1 1 8 2:18 -16 4
L L L L W
6 10 2 3 5 7:11 -4 9
D W L W L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)