BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Sergipe
Match Timeline
Retrô
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
87'
Betinho
Sergipe

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 83.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 94.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 93.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
83.9%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
94.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
93.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Sergipe Win 83.9%
Draw 0%
Retrô Win 16.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sergipe2.16
Retrô1.4
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sergipe Sergipe
WWDLW
10 GF / 7 GA
Retrô Retrô
WLDWL
7 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
2
Average Goals Scored
1.4
1.4
Average Goals Conceded
2.4
5
BTTS Yes
4
4
Over 2.5
5
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sergipe Sergipe 5 matches
Retrô Retrô 5 matches
Sergipe Statistic Retrô
3 Wins 1
1 Draws 1
1 Losses 3
10 Goals For 7
7 Goals Against 12
2 Avg Goals Scored 1.4
1.4 Avg Goals Conceded 2.4
5 BTTS Yes 4
5 Over 1.5 5
4 Over 2.5 5
3 Over 3.5 3
0 Clean Sheets 0
0 Failed To Score 1
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Sergipe's more proactive style and Retrô's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Retrô arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Retrô. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Retrô having the stronger overall control. Sergipe arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 10 points compared to Retrô in 6 on 4, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Sergipe Analysis

Sergipe approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 10 points after 5 outings. With 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 10:7, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Betinho (3 goals), Felipe Valdivia (2 goals), Venicius (2 goals), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, their record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Retrô Analysis

With 4 points from 5 games and a place of 6, Retrô still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 7:12 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Radsley (4 goals), Ericson (1 goals), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Sergipe won 3 times, Retrô won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:11 from Sergipe's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.25 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
H2H summary: Sergipe wins 3, draws 2, Retrô wins 3
Last matches: Sergipe
27.06.26
Ser
Sergipe
ASA
0
1
L
21.06.26
Ser
Sergipe
ASA
1
1
D
14.06.26
Ser
Sergipe
Serra Branca
1
1
D
31.05.26
Ser
Sergipe
Decisão
2
3
L
23.05.26
Ser
Sergipe
Treze
0
1
L
16.05.26
Ser
Sergipe
Lagarto
1
1
D
04.05.26
Ser
Sergipe
Retrô
3
1
W
25.04.26
Ser
Sergipe
Lagarto
3
1
W
19.04.26
Ser
Sergipe
Treze
1
3
L
11.04.26
Ser
Sergipe
Decisão
2
1
W
05.04.26
Ser
Sergipe
Serra Branca
1
1
D
09.08.25
Ser
Sergipe
Santa Cruz
1
2
L
03.08.25
Ser
Sergipe
Santa Cruz
2
1
W
27.07.25
Ser
Sergipe
Jequié
1
0
W
20.07.25
Ser
Sergipe
Juazeirense
0
0
D
12.07.25
Ser
Sergipe
Lagarto
1
2
L
05.07.25
Ser
Sergipe
ASA
2
2
D
28.06.25
Ser
Sergipe
Penedense
2
0
W
14.06.25
Ser
Sergipe
União Carmolandense
0
2
L
08.06.25
Ser
Sergipe
Barcelona BA
4
1
W
Last matches: Retrô
14.06.26
Ser
Retrô
Treze
3
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Retrô
Serra Branca
0
0
D
24.05.26
Ser
Retrô
Lagarto
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Retrô
Decisão
2
1
W
04.05.26
Ser
Retrô
Sergipe
1
3
L
26.04.26
Ser
Retrô
Decisão
2
3
L
18.04.26
Ser
Retrô
Lagarto
2
1
W
12.04.26
Ser
Retrô
Serra Branca
2
2
D
04.04.26
Ser
Retrô
Treze
0
3
L
H2H: Sergipe vs Retrô
09.05.26
H2H
Sergipe
Retrô
1
0
W
04.05.26
H2H
Retrô
Sergipe
1
3
W
08.07.24
H2H
Retrô
Sergipe
5
0
L
11.05.24
H2H
Sergipe
Retrô
1
3
L
18.06.23
H2H
Retrô
Sergipe
1
1
D
07.06.23
H2H
Sergipe
Retrô
0
1
L
29.08.21
H2H
Retrô
Sergipe
0
0
D
13.06.21
H2H
Sergipe
Retrô
1
0
W
Last matches: Sergipe
27.06.26
Ser
Sergipe
ASA
0
1
L
14.06.26
Ser
Sergipe
Serra Branca
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
Sergipe
Treze
0
1
L
25.04.26
Ser
Sergipe
Lagarto
3
1
W
11.04.26
Ser
Sergipe
Decisão
2
1
W
03.08.25
Ser
Sergipe
Santa Cruz
2
1
W
27.07.25
Ser
Sergipe
Jequié
1
0
W
12.07.25
Ser
Sergipe
Lagarto
1
2
L
28.06.25
Ser
Sergipe
Penedense
2
0
W
08.06.25
Ser
Sergipe
Barcelona BA
4
1
W
25.05.25
Ser
Sergipe
União Carmolandense
0
0
D
10.05.25
Ser
Sergipe
ASA
1
2
L
27.04.25
Ser
Sergipe
Juazeirense
0
0
D
H2H at home: Sergipe
09.05.26
H2H
Sergipe
Retrô
1
0
W
11.05.24
H2H
Sergipe
Retrô
1
3
L
07.06.23
H2H
Sergipe
Retrô
0
1
L
13.06.21
H2H
Sergipe
Retrô
1
0
W
Last matches: Retrô
31.05.26
Ser
Retrô
Serra Branca
0
0
D
26.04.26
Ser
Retrô
Decisão
2
3
L
18.04.26
Ser
Retrô
Lagarto
2
1
W
04.04.26
Ser
Retrô
Treze
0
3
L
H2H away: Retrô
09.05.26
H2H
Sergipe
Retrô
1
0
L
11.05.24
H2H
Sergipe
Retrô
1
3
W
07.06.23
H2H
Sergipe
Retrô
0
1
W
13.06.21
H2H
Sergipe
Retrô
1
0
L

Standings

Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 13:5 8 22
W W D W D
2 10 6 2 2 15:9 6 20
W D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 10:7 3 13
L W D L L
4 10 2 4 4 11:14 -3 10
L L D W W
5 10 2 4 4 8:13 -5 10
L D D W L
6 10 1 2 7 8:17 -9 5
W L L L D
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 4
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:6 10 23
W W D W W
2 10 5 4 1 13:7 6 19
W D D L D
3 10 3 3 4 9:10 -1 12
D D W L L
4 10 2 6 2 10:9 1 12
D D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D L W D
6 10 1 2 7 7:16 -9 5
L L D L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 5
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 19:13 6 20
W L W W L
2 10 5 3 2 20:11 9 18
L W W L W
3 10 4 3 3 15:10 5 15
W W L L W
4 10 3 4 3 14:17 -3 13
L W D W L
5 10 3 3 4 18:18 0 12
W L L W W
6 10 1 1 8 12:29 -17 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 6
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 5 0 14:7 7 20
W D D D W
2 10 5 4 1 12:6 6 19
W W W D D
3 10 4 2 4 11:13 -2 14
W D L L W
4 10 3 4 3 12:6 6 13
L W W W D
5 10 2 3 5 8:15 -7 9
L L L D L
6 10 0 4 6 10:20 -10 4
L L D D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 7
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 15:7 8 21
W D W W D
2 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W W L W D
3 10 3 5 2 12:9 3 14
L D W D L
4 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
W D L L L
5 10 2 4 4 10:10 0 10
L D W D W
6 10 1 4 5 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 8
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 15:6 9 23
W W D W W
2 10 6 3 1 14:3 11 21
W W D W D
3 10 3 4 3 8:5 3 13
L W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 8:7 1 13
W L D D L
5 10 3 1 6 4:11 -7 10
L L D L W
6 10 0 2 8 3:20 -17 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Standings
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 2 3 18:14 4 17
L D L W W
1 10 6 3 1 25:8 17 21
W D D W W
1 10 5 3 2 12:8 4 18
L D D D W
1 10 5 2 3 13:9 4 17
D W W L L
1 10 6 3 1 16:6 10 21
W W W D L
1 10 4 5 1 14:9 5 17
L D D W W
1 10 6 1 3 15:9 6 19
W W W W L
1 10 6 1 3 14:8 6 19
L W W L D
2 10 4 3 3 15:13 2 15
D L L D W
2 10 5 2 3 12:9 3 17
W D D L L
2 10 4 3 3 12:9 3 15
W L W D D
2 10 4 5 1 13:6 7 17
D W D W D
2 10 5 2 3 16:8 8 17
L W W D D
2 10 4 3 3 12:7 5 15
W D L W W
2 10 5 1 4 9:8 1 16
W L D W L
2 10 4 4 2 9:5 4 16
D L D W W
3 10 3 6 1 12:8 4 15
D D W L D
3 10 4 4 2 11:7 4 16
D D D W W
3 10 3 4 3 7:7 0 13
D L D W D
3 10 4 3 3 12:8 4 15
D D W D W
3 10 3 5 2 14:9 5 14
L D D W D
3 10 3 4 3 10:10 0 13
W L D L D
3 10 4 3 3 9:4 5 15
L D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 3:4 -1 13
D L D L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:15 -1 13
W W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 12:14 -2 13
D D D W W
4 10 3 4 3 9:12 -3 13
D D L L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:12 2 13
W L L D D
4 10 3 3 4 11:21 -10 12
W D L W L
4 10 3 3 4 8:10 -2 12
L W D L L
4 10 4 3 3 11:9 2 15
W D L W W
4 10 3 4 3 6:8 -2 13
W W D D W
5 10 3 3 4 13:15 -2 12
W D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 10:17 -7 9
L D D L L
5 10 3 3 4 8:9 -1 12
W W W L D
5 10 3 1 6 9:21 -12 10
L L L D L
5 10 3 2 5 11:16 -5 11
W L D L W
5 10 3 3 4 7:10 -3 12
W L W W D
5 10 4 3 3 10:8 2 15
L W D L L
5 10 2 4 4 9:12 -3 10
D L D D L
6 10 2 2 6 10:17 -7 8
L D W L L
6 10 1 2 7 5:20 -15 5
L D D L L
6 10 2 3 5 9:12 -3 9
L W L W L
6 10 1 5 4 6:11 -5 8
D D D D W
6 10 2 1 7 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
6 10 3 2 5 9:14 -5 11
L W D L L
6 10 1 1 8 2:18 -16 4
L L L L W
6 10 2 3 5 7:11 -4 9
D W L W L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)